[Pops]

I don't have time to talk about this now but a really good story in the times about GOM salt basin geology and oil:
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/07/28 ... 5ubPsHHXGQ

[Sixstrings]

I'm not really qualified to judge this on the science, so hopefully others chime in.

What I find interesting though is how casually the New York Times admits to peak oil like it's something everyone already knows about and accepts:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')oore, while at Anadarko Petroleum Corp., was one of the earliest geologists to probe beneath the Gulf's salt, helping discover the Mahogany oil reservoir, the region's first producing subsalt field, after burrowing through 3,825 feet of salt in the early 1990s. The productivity of these salt-based fields could prompt a re-evaluation of peak oil's arrival, he said.

[Pops]

I thought the same. It is funny how "peak oil" can be mentioned in the business pages, and here, in the environment section, without the benefit of explanation or even quotation marks.

[eastbay]

Even if we discover, say, 100 b/bbls of of this new oil at a 27 b/bbl per year burn rate we're talking about stretching our happy carefree oil burning lifestyles out 3 and a half additional years. So I can't get too excited about this at all.

[Sixstrings]

You'd think that on peak oil forum a post like this would get more attention. Have we lost all our hard core oil folks?

I know I post about other topics, but I've just never been able to grasp all the oil stuff as much as other issues. But I do miss the in depth back and forth between the posters who understand it.

From reading this article, I gather that somehow salt deposits have fooled us into thinking some reserves are tapped out, so if we get past the salt then there's this new cornucopia of oil just waiting to be had. That about right? Anyway, would sure be nice if anyone can bring some more expert analysis to this.

If this "cornucopia of oil just under salt" applies only to offshore drilling, then I'd say we have the usual problem of logistics, environmental issues, and EROEI involving offshore drilling. The fundamental issue of peak oil, as I understand it, is that we're running low on the easily and cheaply extractable oil.

Personally, I'll never believe in cornucopia unless we see strong growth in worldwide production for at least a few years.

[Pops]

My take, fwiw, is the GOM sediment has a "floor" of salt (evaporated seawater) from back when it first was formed and engineers had previously thought anytime they hit salt they were at the bottom of the sediment so no reason to continue drilling.

Turns out that salt "flows" under pressure so it can squeeze around and even over oil, trapping it deeper (and hotter) than previously thought. It's like looking for the remote under the couch but not under the rug because it "can't" be there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'Y')ou'd think that on peak oil forum a post like this would get more attention. Have we lost all our hard core oil folks?

[americandream]

The problem with predicting imminent doom is that imminence has a sell by date and that date has passed for many.

Those who remain are, I suspect, the hard core who will increasingly be debating the core issue, capitalism and perpetual growth. Whether it be sustainable with a Singularity or some other technology inspired alchemy or in transition as a certain school of social economy delineates.

I suspect many are realising that capitalism is not yet done and that it is a lot more resilient than previously thought, so the question of how it will be delayed is a moot point.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course, there are complications. Deeper wells sit at higher pressures, increasing the risk of blowout. The deepest exploration well, drilled by the ill-fated Deepwater Horizon, is 35,000 feet down, several times the depth of BP's Macondo well. And further oil production will only add to the greenhouse gases humans pour into the atmosphere each year, slowly increasing global temperatures.

[americandream]

No turning back this clock, dude.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course, there are complications. Deeper wells sit at higher pressures, increasing the risk of blowout. The deepest exploration well, drilled by the ill-fated Deepwater Horizon, is 35,000 feet down, several times the depth of BP's Macondo well. And further oil production will only add to the greenhouse gases humans pour into the atmosphere each year, slowly increasing global temperatures.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pops', 'A')ctually Six I've made up my mind no one who reads here gives a rip about po - at least about discussing anything that might affect their preconceived opinion.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'I') have to admit that my main reason for replying is because I don't want you to yank your ethernet cable from the wall and do something terrible (like join a macrame workshop) because you feel neglected by your PO friends.

[sparky]

.
Pre-salt drilling has revolution ed oil exploration , the Gulf is where the techniques were tried
the South Atlantic off shore Brazil and the sister formations of Angola are being drilled now
of course the biggest salt sea is the Mediterranean basin with a near uniform salt bottom all over
the Israelis had some success , I'm not too familiar with their geology but will check it

As for business being casual about Peak Oil , yes they have accepted it for a few years now
they are realists ,
If one has to look for oil at the extremity of geology , that the proof we are at the extremity of exploration , oil companies don't do glory they look for money


the real issue is timing , forget the year , what really matter is the decade
and the down slope , utter collapse along a cliff face is not the main bet ,
more likely a slow strangulation of the western model , over a generation , if things go well

the real issue is if some bozzo in power decide to do something drastic , that would be unwise and could create more problems
since there is no real solution , better to surf this decline easily , I'm a happy doomer

[Dreamtwister]

How do you delay something that has already happened?

[sparky]

.
What has already happened is the peak in "classic " onshore crude oil ,
I'm not counting vegetable juice , that's bull , but there is a case for tars and the heavies

As I said before , if one's need to go hundred of miles offshore drilling over a mile or two of water , down four miles of rock and tricky stuff to get a moderately sized field by historical standard
then one can conclude that someone is a bit desperate to obtain the stuff

[Pops]

Take a look at Staniford's blog, he's keeping pretty good track of production and has a nice graph today.

What happened in '08 was something but it wasn't the peak of oil production, we're less than 1Mbbl/day from that volume and the price is half what it was then.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')ake a look at Staniford's blog, he's keeping pretty good track of production and has a nice graph today.

What happened in '08 was something but it wasn't the peak of oil production, we're less than 1Mbbl/day from that volume and the price is half what it was then.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')ake a look at Staniford's blog, he's keeping pretty good track of production and has a nice graph today.

What happened in '08 was something but it wasn't the peak of oil production, we're less than 1Mbbl/day from that volume and the price is half what it was then.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I')s there a reliable historical demand chart to compare to the production / price chart?

[smiley]

I'm not sure whether you're allowed to do that. By removing this part of the graph I get the impression that you label it as an abberation, the result of gambling.

The way I understand these contracts they involve physical oil. In other words, if the contract expires and you are the holder, you better clear out some space in your backyard, because you'll receive a 1000 foot tanker on your doorstep.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/ ... =undefined

You can of cause influence the futures. If you buy or sell 2015 options you are talking about virtual oil. But as the expiration date comes nearer, you have to start thinking about the physical stuff as well. As you approach the expiration date the price should close in on economic reality.

I think that this makes price manipulation of the spot price virtually impossible, except when you are prepared to physically take oil off the market and put it in storage. Think of how Hunt cornered the silver market. That can be done, but as I recall most of the national and private storage facilities were close to empty in 2008.

II think what you are seeing here is really the inflexibility of the oil market. We're all bidding over a fixed amount of oil. If that amount is sufficent then the deals are quickly made. If that amount is insufficient then it depends on the determination and the depths of the pockets of individual bidders at which price the contracts will be settled. They just keep bidding until some bidders fall out.

It might well be that we will see such price spikes every time that demand and supply come into conflict with each other.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'B')y removing this part of the graph I get the impression that you label it as an abberation, the result of gambling