PeakOil is You
What is so magical about the peak?
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Re: What is so magical about the peak?
by LateGreatPlanetEarth » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 22:42:01
in the party's over book, it's thought that the peak would apprx. 4 years of a plateau, bumping up and down.
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Re: What is so magical about the peak?
by whereagles » Mon 04 Jun 2007, 10:14:42
From a economical-theoretical point of view the peak is magical because of the following:
'Peak' means no more growth is possible. Up to peak, economics was based on growth. From the peak afterwards, economics must be based on diminuishing resources.
Therefore, peak implies a change in economic paradigm, which IS a big thing.
'Peak' means no more growth is possible. Up to peak, economics was based on growth. From the peak afterwards, economics must be based on diminuishing resources.
Therefore, peak implies a change in economic paradigm, which IS a big thing.
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Re: What is so magical about the peak?
by Doly » Mon 04 Jun 2007, 10:29:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', '
')'Peak' means no more growth is possible.
')'Peak' means no more growth is possible.
Not quite correct, unless you assume that "peak oil" is equivalent to "peak energy", which is unclear.
It is fair to say that it means "peak transport", at the very least a temporary peak. And that does have all sorts of economic repercussions. I'm still trying to figure it out.
It's certain that the current economy can't deal with peak oil. It's already showing cracks all over. Considering the past records, it's likely that it will fail with a big crash. My preliminary study suggests that the economy should crash before the peak, but there are signs that we already could be in the plateau and the economy hasn't fallen apart yet... I suspect we won't understand exactly what happened to the economy until after it's crashed. I suspect we are on the top of the biggest financial bubble ever. Everyone is borrowing like there's no tomorrow.
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Re: What is so magical about the peak?
by peripato » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 01:47:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', '
')'Peak' means no more growth is possible.
')'Peak' means no more growth is possible.
Not quite correct, unless you assume that "peak oil" is equivalent to "peak energy", which is unclear.
Well seeing that oil is our No1 primary energy source, powering 97% of transport and modern agricultural processes, and is soon to go into terminal decline, with no apparent substitute in sight, I would suggest that peak oil does indeed signify peak energy. Especially since No2 on the hit parade, gas, is also only 10 years or so behind and these two sources alone account for 60% of the total global energy supply.
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Re: What is so magical about the peak?
by Ludi » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 14:37:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')Well seeing that oil is our No1 primary energy source, powering 97% of transport and modern agricultural processes, and is soon to go into terminal decline, with no apparent substitute in sight, I would suggest that peak oil does indeed signify peak energy. Especially since No2 on the hit parade, gas, is also only 10 years or so behind and these two sources alone account for 60% of the total global energy supply.
')Well seeing that oil is our No1 primary energy source, powering 97% of transport and modern agricultural processes, and is soon to go into terminal decline, with no apparent substitute in sight, I would suggest that peak oil does indeed signify peak energy. Especially since No2 on the hit parade, gas, is also only 10 years or so behind and these two sources alone account for 60% of the total global energy supply.
From that, it seems clear we must "magically" replace 60% of the total global energy supply (plus additional demand) within the next ten years or so. What are the odds?
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