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worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Are we now in real decline (total liquids)?

Yes - we are now past peak oil.
52
No votes
No - we can still see higher average production figures for 2007 or in the future, than for previous years.
18
No votes
 
Total votes : 70

worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby MrMambo » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 02:12:38

link to worldoil.com:

http://worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTI ... production

the table on the page shows production for june 2007 against may 2007 against averages for 2006 and 2005. And the numbers show that june production is lower than averages for 2005 and 2006 as well as for may.

Total Supply (world):
83.71 (June 2007)
84.27 (May 2007)
84.69 (Average 2006)
84.16 (Average 2005)

How come production is dropping while prices are so high? Shouldn't market forces "generate" more supply?

Isn't China and India consuming signifficantly more each year? What areas in the world have had to cut back on consumption to leave room for increases in chineese and indian oil consumption?

Interestingly enough I see that my homecountry (Norway) has one of the largest production drops over the period. We were close to 3 mb/d in 2005 and was over 2.5 mb/d in May, but in June we saw only 2.16 mb/d... from almost 3 to slightly above 2 since 2005 to now... thats pretty steep decline.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Ayame » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 04:20:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'H')ow come production is dropping while prices are so high? Shouldn't market forces "generate" more supply?


Because all the easy oil has been tapped, now they have to resort to drilling for the hard to get oil (deep water or multiple smaller fields). Also oil doesn't just come on line in a few days, it takes time to explore and then develop a field. Plus more refineries need to be built which doesn't happen overnight.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Isn't China and India consuming signifficantly more each year? What areas in the world have had to cut back on consumption to leave room for increases in chineese and indian oil consumption?


Africa will have to cut back.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Interestingly enough I see that my homecountry (Norway) has one of the largest production drops over the period. We were close to 3 mb/d in 2005 and was over 2.5 mb/d in May, but in June we saw only 2.16 mb/d... from almost 3 to slightly above 2 since 2005 to now... thats pretty steep decline.


Scary isn't it.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby waegari » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 07:40:30

If the trend continues, then it seems we can safely say, world oil production peaked around august 2006, according to those figures...

Add to this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Aramco’s annual production of crude oil dropped 1.7% to 3.253 billion barrels (8.9 million barrels per day) in 2006 from 3.309 billion barrels in 2005 (9.1 million barrels per day), according to the company’s Annual Review for 2006.


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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 11:25:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'l')ink to worldoil.com:

How come production is dropping while prices are so high? Shouldn't market forces "generate" more supply?

Isn't China and India consuming signifficantly more each year? .


Marekt forces don't "generate" supply out of thin air, who ever suggested such a silly concept? The market reallocates based on cost....for more than 2 years since Peak happened, things aren't collapsing the way us Doomers have hoped. We haven't needed more supply because it isn't there, therefore, we use less.

I know its all a terrible blow to those of us who bought into the quick dieoff, but it sure looks so far like the "market will make do" types are winning the arguement. I'm cancelling my subscription to 'FromTheWilderness" immediately, summer is over, and we STILL don't have our Gorge.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Ayame » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 11:36:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'I') know its all a terrible blow to those of us who bought into the quick dieoff, but it sure looks so far like the "market will make do" types are winning the arguement. I'm cancelling my subscription to 'FromTheWilderness" immediately, summer is over, and we STILL don't have our Gorge.


Patience young one, Rome did not collapse in a day, or even a summer and we have so much farther to fall.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 12:05:58

Anyone who bought into the quick die-off got suckered. It doesn't work like that. There are a lot of barriers to be broken down before the consequences of depletion reach us.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby FrankRichards » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 12:30:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'l')ink to worldoil.com:

http://worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTI ... production

the table on the page shows production for june 2007 against may 2007 against averages for 2006 and 2005. And the numbers show that june production is lower than averages for 2005 and 2006 as well as for may.


Note that that chart is only oil and natural gas liquids, aka Crude & Condensate (C&C). It leaves our tar sands for instance.
So, while I agree taht C&C have peaked, I think we will still bump along on total liquids for another year, with a shot at a new monthly record depending on the vagaries of hurricanes and accidents.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 13:03:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', ' ')How come production is dropping while prices are so high? Shouldn't market forces "generate" more supply?


Is my reaction, to the above comments, wrong?:

production-prices: Shouldn't prices go higher and higher as production declines?

generate more supply: Market forces can't generate more supply. They might be able, for a short time, generate the Availability of more supply...

And:
"Are we now in real decline (total liquids)?": provided that FFs are not renewable, haven't we actually been in decline since we first started to use them, and, the poll question should have included a Speed in which we are in decline.....
Sorry, don't mean to nitpick....
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby coyote » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 17:02:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re we now in real decline (total liquids)?

Yes - we are now past peak oil.
No - we can still see higher average production figures for 2007 or in the future, than for previous years.

There really should be a third option in the poll: "No way to be sure yet."

As waegari wrote, "If the trend continues"... and, I would add, accelerates, and resists all attempts to reverse it... then we'll know. For now, we could still simply be on a temporary plateau on our way up to new heights. Or a temporary plateau just before the real declines begin.

In the absence of that third option, I'll make my best guess like the others here.
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby billp » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 19:50:40

Thanks for info.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')pdate Sunday September 9, 2007

link to worldoil.com:

http://worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTI ... production

the table on the page shows production for june 2007 against may 2007 against averages for 2006 and 2005. And the numbers show that june production is lower than averages for 2005 and 2006 as well as for may.

Total Supply (world):
83.71 (June 2007) 84.27 (May 2007)
84.69 (Average 2006)
84.16 (Average 2005)

Are we now in real decline (total liquids)?


Senior citizen techie would REALLY APPRECIATE if someone out there would check his diffferentiation of the normal distribution for correctness.

http://www.prosefights.org/pnmelectric/ ... stribution

Sobolewski said he tossed out his calculus book and is not into that sh.. any more while we were salmon fishing in 2007.

Sixty-nine-year old numerical analyst Dr Richard Hanson [PhD U Wisconsin, LINPACK] verified first derivative compuatation but didn't reponse to questions about 2nd. Or 3rd. Why?

Two things get worse when you grow older.

1 Your memory.
2 I forget the second.

If you can't do math when you get older, then there is PRACTICAL LITIGATION. This requires visibility.

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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Carlhole » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 19:58:10

Higher prices will create a continous and evolving process of demand destruction/efficiency enhancement worldwide. And this could happen on multiple levels for a whole bunch of years.

And it really would be best if the process of demand destruction DID continue on for a long time. This will give us a chance to innovate properly.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby phaeryen » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 20:11:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'l')ink to worldoil.com:

How come production is dropping while prices are so high? Shouldn't market forces "generate" more supply?

Isn't China and India consuming signifficantly more each year? .


Marekt forces don't "generate" supply out of thin air, who ever suggested such a silly concept? The market reallocates based on cost....for more than 2 years since Peak happened, things aren't collapsing the way us Doomers have hoped. We haven't needed more supply because it isn't there, therefore, we use less.

I know its all a terrible blow to those of us who bought into the quick dieoff, but it sure looks so far like the "market will make do" types are winning the arguement. I'm cancelling my subscription to 'FromTheWilderness" immediately, summer is over, and we STILL don't have our Gorge.


Maybe you shouldn't attend a peak oil forum if an "armaggedon", hollywood style, is what you are looking for?

"The shit" is coming, it's already here, all you need is a perspective. A perspective that is not dependant upon instant JIT-everythingimmediately- sort of thinking.

As a collective, we, as human beings, are consuming and thus needing MORE OIL while due to circumstances brought upon us by the world we live in we are producing LESS OIL than the year before. Do you require any more proof to validate doomerosity than that?
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby billp » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 20:34:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The shit" is coming, it's already here, .."


I gave my take on energy depletion lecture to John and Carole Sobolweski on evening of August 27, 2007 while eating Surgeon and Halibut [lots better than Sturgeon] on deck outside in Kenwood, WA.

Both were listening intently.

Let's all hope this lecture starts them, and lots of others, THINKING about the problem.

But what to do about THE energy PROBLEM? Probably nothing. The system is moving ahead. And none of us can buck the system effectively.

The system may have to crash before the problem is confronted.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here comes a time in the affairs of a man when he has to take the bull by the tail and face the situation.

(Tille and Gus) W C Fields


We WILL see.

regards
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Bas » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 21:05:37

good find MrMambo! These are the first figures I see that say decline; all the agencies are still predicting 85mbd or so for this year but I think they won't be able to deny the inevitable much longer if these figures are true.
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby Cyrus » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 22:43:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', '
')
Interestingly enough I see that my homecountry (Norway) has one of the largest production drops over the period. We were close to 3 mb/d in 2005 and was over 2.5 mb/d in May, but in June we saw only 2.16 mb/d... from almost 3 to slightly above 2 since 2005 to now... thats pretty steep decline.


Interesting, got some links to that info?
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby billp » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 23:04:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen installed nuclear, solar, wind, and hydro is not sufficient to maintain installed nuclear, solar, wind, and hydro


Try when Athabaskan tar sands are not sufficient to maintain Athabaskan tar sands bitumen production.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ypically, tar sands are produced using natural gas to heat the steam that drives the oil out of the sands. It takes a lot of gas to do this: over 1,000 cubic feet--about $8 worth--to produce one barrel of bitumen.

At the current production level of about 1 mpbd, the tar sands operations consume about 4% of Canada's natural gas supply. So quadrupling production would consume fully 16% of the supply, and completely max out the gas market. Nearly all estimates for tar sands operations over the next ten years exceed the projections for available amounts of natural gas!

Canada's natural gas supplies are running out fast. Numbers from the EIA and the NEB suggest that its proven reserves of natural gas will be gone in about eight years.


http://www.prosefights.org/pnmgas/pnmgas.htm

cheers
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby FloridaGirl » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 01:18:52

The ASPO graph that PO.com frequently uses shows Deep Water oil causing a total peak of crude oil at about 2010. What's going on with Deep Water oil? Is it going to cause another peak or was ASPO overly optimistic?
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Re: worldoil.com info page suggests we are in decline

Unread postby coyote » Mon 10 Sep 2007, 04:13:17

That's an outstanding avatar, Zardoz.

{edit: oooooooops sorry pstarr :oops: }
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