[Russophile]

Having read about this a lot on the internet this weekend, it has occurred to me that there will be serious social problems resulting from a lack of water, food, electricity and possibly policing. It's not hard to foresee real social meltdown, anarchy. At best, as I see it, we're surely in for a huge global recession which may last for decades.

My question is, being new to this topic, how long have we got? What can one do to prepare?

The reason my question reads 'if at all', is that some people seem to believe that other technologies will be found to quickly fill the void left by oil. I really think that is highly implausible and optimistic, but I thought I'd better make the question as open as possible.

[MD]

When total production starts to decline at significant rates, everything will change. What those changes will look like is a guess at best. Thus the endless speculations here and elsewhere.

The changes will be . . . uncomfortable, at best. That much is certain.

[Russophile]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'W')hen total production starts to decline at significant rates, everything will change. What those changes will look like is a guess at best. Thus the endless speculations here and elsewhere.

The changes will be . . . uncomfortable, at best. That much is certain.

[clueless]

Peak Oil Production will probably be a plateau in which you will continue to see occurences like what we are seeing now, price spikes, spot shortages, decreased demand in which countries that cannot print money will have to go without etc...

We are seeing rationioning in a sort right now - and according to several people I have spoken to that work for Conocco Phillips we will see prices increase 50-75 cents a year for the forseeable future.

One thing you need to remember, with the tremendous trade imbalances the US carries we are at the mercy of our creditors - If China decides it wants to take the money and run they could dump our Tbills and tank our economy tomorrow, giving them a tremendous amount of oil, but eliminating one of their primary customers, will that happen ? Not sure, but it could.

I went through a period of shock also, and still do at times. But the reality is we live in a non-linear world, and tradgedys occur quite often, just not here. Try to take practical steps like getting out of debt and pay close attention to how you use energy, and how you would function in the event of regular blackouts etc. Purchase items that will last a long time, that can be used in the even of tougher times. Nobody knows how this thing is going to pan out.

AND ONE THING FOR SURE - DO NOT LISTEN TO THE DOOMERS ON THIS SITE...YOU ARE ASKING A LOADED QUESTION THAT YOU MAY NOT WANT TO HEAR THE ANSWERS TO...

Europeans consume 1/3 the oil we consume and live pretty well - rememembr oil consumption does not mean quality of life.And besides the bigger concern in the near term is electricity, We are really over a barrel on Gas and Coal production.

[midnight-gamer]

This thread covers many of the basics as far as preps are concerned. I would advise reading everything you can. Spend what you can spare to be more self sufficient.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic321.html

[kjmclark]

Um, changes started a few years ago. Did you notice that gas prices have almost tripled since their lowest levels of only five years ago or so? Notice that housing bubble bursting? US car companies in the crapper? Inflation? Declining dollar? War in Iraq?

In the next five years, we have the rest of the ARM reset/subprime foreclosure/housing collapse that's been started. Gas prices may double/triple again. The dollar may drop another 20-40%. Inflation may stay around 5% or increase to 10%. Probably a painful recession. War in Iran?

[Windmills]

One possible tool for determining when the effects of peak oil will begin to be felt closer to home is examing the impact on poorer nations. Given that oil is a globally traded commodity, it has poor and rich nations bidding on it. I believe what is now happening is that the poor nations are being bid out of the market one by one. Keep an eye on the energy woes of developing countries. If you have a list of every country in the world, sorted by their ability to afford oil, you might be able to cross them off one by one as they are plunged into crisis. Of course, what's linear anymore, but it might give you some idea of how much time you have left. Once all the poor nations have been bid out, the prices will really start to climb because it will be wealthier nations bidding against each other. It's easy for the rich to outbid the poor, but when the rich are forced to face off with each other, we'll see the dreaded skyrocket in prices.

[benzoil]

Russophile, I guarantee that if we knew the answer to your question, there'd be a lot less posts to this board! We'll all be out there working towards a specific date and goal. Or at least, playing the market.

I used to be obsessed with when, now I'm a bit more sanguine about it. Partly because I've made a good deal of the preparations that I can and parly because this thing is a true slow motion train wreck. There'll be various crisis points along the way down, but its going to take awhile to develop.

Let's assume that the US housing bubble (and the housing bubbles in Europe) burst over the next year or three. The resulting recession/depression will probably reduce demand for oil somewhat. The resulting inflation (as the big banks try to stave off a Depression) will also camouflage price increases as a result of increased scarcity.

Now, at some point something will happen to push us further down the slope of realization. Either the economy will try to recover and won't be able to because of oil prices/scarcity or oil production will fall off the bumpy plateau we're on and decrease noticeably enough that the cat will be out of the bag. Even then, there won't be an announcement on TV that the end is near. The usual people will continue to deny it. The other usual people will continue to say that we just need more ethanol. The other other usual people will blame the (whoever has oil ).

First, they'll drain the SPR - Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Then, they'll allow drilling in ANWR in Alaska. Finally, they'll allow drilling off the coast of Florida and anywhere else on the eastern US seaoard that might have oil. By then it should be pretty obvious. During this time as well, look for a big "renewable energy" push to combat global warming or take money away from "the terrorists" - depending on which party is in power at the time the legislation is pushed through.

Estimated timeline for all this to happen? Not sure. I just assume that things will be getting progressively weirder/worse on economic, social, political and energy fronts out to 2020.

That said, I'd say we've got a couple years. Especially with the elections coming up in the U.S. Assuming the recession starts next spring (2008 for those reading this at a later date), I'd say sometime in the 2010 to 2012 range you will see true recognition of the problem. We might even get to 2015 or so. I'm just some guy, however.


Disclaimer: The above may or may not be total BS. It's certainly just a gut level take on what I've read as a non-scholarly reader of things.

[OnceFueled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'O')ne possible tool for determining when the effects of peak oil will begin to be felt closer to home is examing the impact on poorer nations. Given that oil is a globally traded commodity, it has poor and rich nations bidding on it. I believe what is now happening is that the poor nations are being bid out of the market one by one. Keep an eye on the energy woes of developing countries. If you have a list of every country in the world, sorted by their ability to afford oil, you might be able to cross them off one by one as they are plunged into crisis. Of course, what's linear anymore, but it might give you some idea of how much time you have left. Once all the poor nations have been bid out, the prices will really start to climb because it will be wealthier nations bidding against each other. It's easy for the rich to outbid the poor, but when the rich are forced to face off with each other, we'll see the dreaded skyrocket in prices.

[Ayame]

Read this post at the oildrum:

world oil forecasts including Saudi Arabia

Make sure you're wearing a nappy.

excerpt:
World C&C production continues to retain its May 2005 peak and is forecast to decline by 1%/yr until 2009. The decline rate steepens to 4%/yr until 2012. The main reason for the end of the total liquids plateau in 2009 is that the C&C production decline rate changes from 1%/yr to 4%/yr in 2009.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ND ONE THING FOR SURE - DO NOT LISTEN TO THE DOOMERS ON THIS SITE...YOU ARE ASKING A LOADED QUESTION THAT YOU MAY NOT WANT TO HEAR THE ANSWERS TO...

[Ferretlover]

I think I give it about 3-5 years before nearly all countries are being constantly, enormously stressed.
Why ao long? Because right now, there are not many major problems happening at the same time, so TPTB are still able to apply bandaids to the problems to temporarily resolve them.

Humans primarily wait until a problem presents itsself, then react to it, instead of planning ahead to prevent a problem.

But, there is absolutely NO way to get around the loss of FFs. They premeate every aspect of life in the US. And, as usual, there are not enough people planning how to deal with the loss, so most governments will not make an effort to overcome the loss of FFs until it is too late (no way to produce the infrastructure using other forms of energy).

[Russophile]

Thanks for your replies folks, I'm adding the links to my favourites.

In reply to Roccland's scenario, that 'in under ten years you will be lucky to be dead'. Surely governments are aware of the issue? In the UK we have an increasing population, surely the government would encourage population reduction faced with such a reality?

Now I'm very sceptical of any government, and our own are a bunch of clowns, however I can't believe that they haven't been advised of the magnitude of Peak Oil?

I do know a friend of mine in the police has told me that riot training has recently become mandatory and more frequent. I also am aware that quite a lot of civil contingency legislation has been passed over the past decade, ostensibly due to the threat of terrorism. I suppose if the threat really is imminent, there's not a lot they CAN do, is there?

[Narz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'Y')eah truth sucks...you want to know what is in store ...read this.

PEAK OIL, TOTAL COLLAPSE, AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'Y')eah truth sucks...you want to know what is in store ...read this.

PEAK OIL, TOTAL COLLAPSE, AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ND ONE THING FOR SURE - DO NOT LISTEN TO THE DOOMERS ON THIS SITE...YOU ARE ASKING A LOADED QUESTION THAT YOU MAY NOT WANT TO HEAR THE ANSWERS TO...

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ND ONE THING FOR SURE - DO NOT LISTEN TO THE DOOMERS ON THIS SITE...YOU ARE ASKING A LOADED QUESTION THAT YOU MAY NOT WANT TO HEAR THE ANSWERS TO...

[Narz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '
')Sounds highly implausible unless there's some kind of nuclear winter or something.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m curious as to why you personally believe (and I don't doubt you do believe it, based on your actions) such an event is so likely.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ND ONE THING FOR SURE - DO NOT LISTEN TO THE DOOMERS ON THIS SITE...YOU ARE ASKING A LOADED QUESTION THAT YOU MAY NOT WANT TO HEAR THE ANSWERS TO...