[MonteQuest]

This post is for all those who keep crying, "We are two years post peak, where's the problems?"

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oel sent me this excellent article Peak Oil Hits the Third World by Chris Nelder, who offers up one of the first comprehensive overviews of how peak oil, with its permanent rise in energy prices, is affecting the third world. In short, as has been reported several times in the past on this blog - it has effectively reduced or eliminated their ability to provide oil for basic needs....Thousands of basic needs are going unmet because the price of energy is simply too high for poor nations to compete with the rich ones. And the price of this is measured in lives. If you don't yet see the evidence for peak oil, you aren't looking in the right places.

[cudabachi]

From that blog:

Douglas Low, the director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in Britain, recently warned of a "crisis coming up" with real shortages of oil, noting that the world used 1.5 mbpd more crude than it produced in June. "It's not a very happy message," he says. "A lot of people want to slip it under the carpet."

--------------------------------------

Yikes, is that actually the case? The world used 1.5 mbpd more crude than it produced in June?

If that is true, at that rate, how long would it before the world had used all of the readily-accessible above-ground reserves?

[jbeckton]

This is not really anything new. Most of these countries have been suffering from energy shortages for much longer than 2 years. Their problems have just as much, if not more, to do with politics than any kind of a fuel shortage.

But if it's true, and 2 years post peak we are "just" starting to see 3rd world countries experience shortages only when combined with currupt governments, bad weather, and no energy stragety to speak of, that is actually good news.

It would appear that the downslope for developed nations is much less severe than doomer porn would have us believe.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'T')his is not really anything new. Most of these countries have been suffering from energy shortages for much longer than 2 years.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'T')his is not really anything new. Most of these countries have been suffering from energy shortages for much longer than 2 years.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '.')...

It would appear that the downslope for developed nations is much less severe than doomer porn would have us believe.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '.')...

It would appear that the downslope for developed nations is much less severe than doomer porn would have us believe.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '.')...

It would appear that the downslope for developed nations is much less severe than doomer porn would have us believe.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '.')...

It would appear that the downslope for developed nations is much less severe than doomer porn would have us believe.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'O')h, I've been standing by for years now.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')You feel that what is now under way in the poor countries somehow is not that big a deal? How bad does it have to get, and how fast does it have to get that bad?

[jbeckton]

Excuse me for not drinking the magic kool-aid until I see the aliens comming to take over the world.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '
')I just said that there are other explanitations for these problems and that we cannot use a unstable country as a model to predict the effects of a shortage here.

If you asked half of the people on this board 2 years ago what the would would look like now assuming 2 years post peak, they would have said that the world would be in shambles.

Thats obviously nonsense if you believe we are 2 years post peak so you might want to re-evaluate your entire scenario.

[cube]

Here's a good website for doomer porn: http://finance.yahoo.com/

Yes I know (jbeckton) life is still pretty good in the USA right now. Despite all the complaining the fact is most Americans still have enough money to afford burning gas to sit in freeway traffic and also buy a couple Starbucks drinks even after the recent price increases.

It is the weak that falls first. The strong will fall later. That is how every great civilization collapses. When the Roman empire collapsed the city of Rome was not the first one to go. As mentioned before...your patience will be rewarded eventually.

[Jester]

Jbeckton...

I'm a moderate in the doomerism and approach things with a logical view.

Simply, what does logic say to you about what events have unfolded and what would be the logical path.

Where does so much of the energy come from, worldwide? Oil.

Production has seemed to plateau, and prices have risen, while demand has continued to rise. What's the likely effect worldwide?

I'd say, places with less ability to handle increased price will be squeezed out and face shortages because of it. Like appears to be happening.

Logic wouldn't show the *rich* countries feeling the same crunch, just paying more, because they can, until the crunch gets worse and worse, which takes time.

Production decline in most cases seems to follow a slow slope to begin, then get steeper. So if we're at the plateau or possibly heading down the slight slope, it's not illogical to believe a steeper slope is on the horizon.


Simply looks like the beginning stages of peak oil. But I guess it's typically more fun to ask where the zombies are etc...

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '
')Thats obviously nonsense if you believe we are 2 years post peak so you might want to re-evaluate your entire scenario.

[Coolman]

I am tired of people saying we are 2 years post peak, where is the doom!

First of all look at the facts. OIL IS ON A PLATEAU! C+C production has barely decreased since 2005. All liquids production has actually increased just slightly since 2005.

Second of all there was an oil glut in the 90's and it is taking awhile for the demand to reach the supply. The reason prices have been rising the last 3 years is because oil production is on a plateau and demand is heading towards supply.

Third of all you live in the fucking first world, which still has a lot buying power this early in the game. Remember oil prices have tripled in the last few years and thats just because oil production started its plateau. Imaging what the price will do when there is a 10% short fall of oil.

The third world does not use much oil, so it will be left to the big guys to duke it out for the rest. The USA using 25% upwards of the worlds oil is going to get smoked a few years post the decline stage of the peak.

This IS ONLY THE START OF THIS EVENT! Sit back and relax the fun will be begin in awhile.

And by the way this crisis does not happen over night, so you can't pinpoint so date.

The idea that the world goes to hell the second the peak is reached is just silly.

[IanC]

We've all been through this discussion before.

Personally, I see a gradual, but steady erosion of our standard of living due to Peak Oil in America. Someday, we'll wake up and realize that LA or Houston will have the same standard of living as Mexico City does now. It will suck for most of the people, but we'll still think we're better off than those cities that are more like Lagos, Nigeria or Lima, Peru.

-IanC

[keehah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'I')f you asked half of the people on this board 2 years ago what the would look like now assuming 2 years post peak, they would have said that the world would be in shambles.

[Windmills]

I think one of the points he's trying to make is that we can't necessarily attribute every problem in a developing country to peak oil, at least not with utter certainty at this point and not without a detailed country-by-country analysis of the various factors leading to instability. On the other hand, it's undeniable that the huge upswing in oil prices is going to have a detrimental effect on a fragile and/or poor nation. The point of contention I'm seeing here is quantifying exactly what fraction of the trouble can be directly attributed to peak oil. This might be a pointless argument since the answer is going to be "bigger, with time." I'll leave pinning down exactly how much time to the psychics and economists.