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Light Sweet Crude Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby mairabp » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 12:20:08

Hello, I would like to know the current perspective of the light sweet crude oil prices, is going to keep going down, or you think is going to recover and get higher prices.

Thank you
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby steam_cannon » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 13:53:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mairabp', 'H')ello, I would like to know the current perspective of the light sweet crude oil prices, is going to keep going down, or you think is going to recover and get higher prices.

Thank you
As the summer driving season ends, I expect gasoline demand will decrease. But there is good reason to think prices for Light Sweet Crude will remain high and be higher in the future.

Here are some links:

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Oil in the market is getting heavier and more sulfurous
Image
"One factor contributing to the dramatic increase in the price spread is a decrease in the supply of light, sweet crude. The higher quality crude supplies of course get used up first, so the world is now increasingly reliant on a lower quality product."
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/200 ... _sour.html

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OPEC Reveal Global Light Sweet Crude Peaked
"light sweet crude oil has also peaked globally and is now in decline."
http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/08/26

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The Peak of Light Sweet Crude?
"Unfortunately, public data for the history of light sweet crude production seems to be almost non-existent. The case at the moment is based on some data on page three of the August Opec Monthly Oil Market Report."
"...Still, there are other interesting indications. The Saudi's have been saying for some time that the world's current problem is lack of refining capacity for heavy oil, not lack of oil per se. And, as Econbrowser noted recently, the price spread between light sweet crude and heavier grades has grown unprecedentedly: consistent with the idea that the good stuff is in decline, while there's still increasing amounts of the not-so-great oil."
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/23/233714/826

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Has Light Sweet Crude peaked?
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic23807.html
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 14:07:47

Track their prices here:

Upstream Online

The light sweet grades are Malaysian Tapis, Louisiana Sweet, and Nigerian Bonny Light (which has dropped from a high of $81.99 in the past couple of weeks).
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby mairabp » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 15:54:24

Thank you for your answers , I agree with your comments but, I am seen that the price is going down more and more and when you supose is going to begin to recover because we are in storm time and nothing happen. We need wait until fall to see the recovery at prices like $/bl 78?
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby FireJack » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 19:57:37

Right now supply has been able to keep up with demand. I am pretty sure we are edging closer and closer to where shortages will start to appear. Then the rich countries will start to outbid poorer countries until there isn't even enouph for them, prices will begin to skyrocket at that point. It should anyway.
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 02:35:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mairabp', 'T')hank you for your answers , I agree with your comments but, I am seen that the price is going down more and more and when you supose is going to begin to recover because we are in storm time and nothing happen. We need wait until fall to see the recovery at prices like $/bl 78?


Oil is going down because the prospect for US economic growth is nil.

If SA cannot ramp up production in the fall, we could see $100.

If we have a bad hurricane season.....

Katy bar the door.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby Resurrection » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 04:13:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mairabp', 'T')hank you for your answers , I agree with your comments but, I am seen that the price is going down more and more and when you supose is going to begin to recover because we are in storm time and nothing happen. We need wait until fall to see the recovery at prices like $/bl 78?


Oil is going down because the prospect for US economic growth is nil.

If SA cannot ramp up production in the fall, we could see $100.

If we have a bad hurricane season.....

Katy bar the door.


That post sent chills down my spine.

If such a well informed PO member thinks that economic growth is done for and oil is gonna be $100 this year (without a bad hurricane season) ...

SHTF. Nice knowing you all, lets hold hands as we jump off the cliff.
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby Judgie » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 04:50:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Resurrection', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mairabp', 'T')hank you for your answers , I agree with your comments but, I am seen that the price is going down more and more and when you supose is going to begin to recover because we are in storm time and nothing happen. We need wait until fall to see the recovery at prices like $/bl 78?


Oil is going down because the prospect for US economic growth is nil.

If SA cannot ramp up production in the fall, we could see $100.

If we have a bad hurricane season.....

Katy bar the door.


That post sent chills down my spine.

If such a well informed PO member thinks that economic growth is done for and oil is gonna be $100 this year (without a bad hurricane season) ...

SHTF. Nice knowing you all, lets hold hands as we jump off the cliff.


Sit down, have a beer and "forgeddaboutit" for a while. And don't hold hands with the people next to you if you're the one who's got a "parachute".
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby Resurrection » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 05:17:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judgie', '
') And don't hold hands with the people next to you if you're the one who's got a "parachute".


Haha, very good advice. Just when you join the game as late as me, and believe a fast crash and fast die off scenario, you hope that the people your holding hands with have bigger parachutes then you do.
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 09:57:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Resurrection', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mairabp', 'T')hank you for your answers , I agree with your comments but, I am seen that the price is going down more and more and when you supose is going to begin to recover because we are in storm time and nothing happen. We need wait until fall to see the recovery at prices like $/bl 78?


Oil is going down because the prospect for US economic growth is nil.

If SA cannot ramp up production in the fall, we could see $100.

If we have a bad hurricane season.....

Katy bar the door.


That post sent chills down my spine.

If such a well informed PO member thinks that economic growth is done for and oil is gonna be $100 this year (without a bad hurricane season) ....


Then let me clarify my statement.

Oil is going down because the market sees the prospect for expected US economic growth ito be nil.

I think we will see a roller coaster of volitility.

$100/barrel oil is possible if SA or Opec cannot increase oil production to meet increasing demand.

A lack of spare capacity makes any weather or geopolitical event affect oil futures.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 10:03:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Resurrection', ' ') Just when you join the game as late as me, and believe a fast crash and fast die off scenario, you hope that the people your holding hands with have bigger parachutes then you do.


A 'fast crash and fast die off scenario' is possible, but I think we will see a slow decline at first, unless/or the decline rate of oil production becomes steeper than forecast and/or panic sets in.

It's the brightest light I try to predict.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby Resurrection » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 11:41:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Resurrection', ' ') Just when you join the game as late as me, and believe a fast crash and fast die off scenario, you hope that the people your holding hands with have bigger parachutes then you do.


A 'fast crash and fast die off scenario' is possible, but I think we will see a slow decline at first, unless/or the decline rate of oil production becomes steeper than forecast and/or panic sets in.

It's the brightest light I try to predict.


You are far more educated then me on the matter, I just think my faith in mankind's ability to adapt is very low, hence my belief in the fast crash/die off. I also believe the right side will be steeper the the left, and so the panic will set in pretty darn quickly. The US stock market will crash, and what the house of cards come down!

Sorry I should really back all this up with graphs and links.. but really it's just my opinion from 3 months of reading PO.com and other related sites. I don't even think history really helps much to judge it because us in the western world have no survival skills these days, not even the basics (for the most part, I know there are notable exceptions).

I hope I'm wrong and it will be a little slower , 4 months ago I was looking forward to my life as a video game designer. Now I'm digging bunkers to store food and water deep in my local woods, ready for melt down next year sometime.
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Re: Light Sweet Crude Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 21:52:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Resurrection', ' ')
You are far more educated then me on the matter, I just think my faith in mankind's ability to adapt is very low, hence my belief in the fast crash/die off.


No, I just have a more moderate position. Many expected chaos in May 2005 and July 2006 when crude and condensate and all liquids peaked (to date, that is) , respectively.

Have you read my Slow Decline? thread in PO Discussion?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') also believe the right side will be steeper the the left, and so the panic will set in pretty darn quickly.


Well, we can believe and expect many things, but we don't know what the decline rate will be, nor how much oil we can really ultimately recover.

And we don't know for sure how the monkeys will react.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') hope I'm wrong and it will be a little slower , 4 months ago I was looking forward to my life as a video game designer. Now I'm digging bunkers to store food and water deep in my local woods, ready for melt down next year sometime.


Might come in handy sometime, but for now I think it is an over reaction, IMHO.

The end is not near. :)

Only higher energy costs.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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