[joewp]

Slope production drops faster than estimated
State officials say their overestimating could hurt budget plans

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Alaska North Slope oil and gas fields declined 12.5 percent in production of crude oil and natural gas liquids last year, according to an analysis by the state Department of Revenue.

North Slope average daily production in state fiscal year 2007 was 738,000 barrels per day, down from an average of 844,000 barrels per day in the previous year.

The drop in production is higher than estimates by both industry and the state. The state makes long-term production forecasts as part of its twice-yearly state revenue forecasts. Royalties and taxes from oil production pays for 85 percent of the state budget.

Part of the decline was due to the Prudhoe Bay field's partial shutdown for several weeks in 2006 after BP experienced leaks in corroded pipes. The decline was also partly attributed to weather conditions at the Valdez Marine Terminal in November that impeded tanker loadings, the analysis shows.

But the data also shows a steepening of the natural decline of the large, older fields on the Slope, rates that exceeded estimates by the producers and the state.
....
The Prudhoe Bay field, which suffered a partial shutdown in August and September 2006, showed the most dramatic decline in total annual production, a drop of 19.4 percent, according to the analysis. Prudhoe is the largest field in northern Alaska and accounts for roughly half of total North Slope production.

The Kuparuk River field, the second largest field, showed an 8.8 percent decline. Endicott, an offshore field that started production in 1987, showed a 20.2 percent decline. Alpine, a relatively new field that began in 2000, showed a decline of 14.8 percent. Production from small satellite fields near Alpine has keep the field processing facilities at maximum capacity.

[Cyrus]

But a 2% world decline rate is perfectly reasonable...

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', 'B')ut a 2% world decline rate is perfectly reasonably...

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', 'B')ut a 2% world decline rate is perfectly reasonably...

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')laska North Slope oil and gas fields declined 12.5 percent in production of crude oil and natural gas liquids last year...

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')laska North Slope oil and gas fields declined 12.5 percent in production of crude oil and natural gas liquids last year...

[katkinkate]

Even if the world decline rate is around 2-3%, the decline in exports will be much higher, at least from those areas where the oil is state-owned. It is usually only excess production, above domestic use, that is exported and that proportion will be the one to feel the decline rates.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', 'B')ut a 2% world decline rate is perfectly reasonably...

[Hawkcreek]

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[Cobra_Strike]

If you look at the very top of the excel sheet is gives the location its from

[Sys1]

Slope is harder than expected especially if you consider EROEI. There is no information about it in those charts. I think that the second part of Hubbert courb regarding world oil production will more likely look like a cliff. (Note that i didn't mention politic as was said above)

[TheDude]

Address in the graph is for the article Updated World Oil Forecasts, including Saudi Arabia from last week. That article doesn't contain this chart, however.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')e keep seeing that 12% decline rate popping up all over, don't we?

[snowhope]

These rates of decline, along with the Export Land Model and the likelihood of dramatic export cuts dues to growing domestic consumption are what scare the hell out of me.

If this doesn't make your view of the future more doomeristic, please tell me why not. I really need some straws to clutch onto.

[CarnbY]

I have to agree with the common sentiment here. Every time I see a projected decline rate it's around 4%, and reports of actual decline rates are in the 10-15% range... It's time for those cockeyed optimists to wake up and smell the coffee!

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f this doesn't make your view of the future more doomeristic, please tell me why not. I really need some straws to clutch onto.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'N')o one's ever questioned them about this, they must know something we don't, right?

Right?