[paimei01]

http://environment.independent.co.uk/cl ... 790960.ece

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')umanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running, the world's top oilmen warned last week.

The warning – which is being hailed as a "tipping point" on both sides of the Atlantic – marks the first time that the industry has accepted that it may soon no longer be able to meet demand for its products. In Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, it gives authoritative support to concern about impending shortages, following a similar alert by the International Energy Agency less than two weeks ago.

The 420-page report, the most comprehensive study ever carried out into the industry, has been produced by the National Petroleum Council, a body of 175 authorities that reports to the US government. It includes the heads of the world's big oil companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, Shell and BP.

It is also remarkable for the conversion of its chairman, Lee Raymond, the recently retired chief executive of ExxonMobil, who led opposition against action to tackle global warming, and became environmentalists' most prominent bogeyman. The report argues for "an effective global framework" to manage emissions of carbon dioxide – "incorporating all major emitters" – and urges the US to cut the pollution that causes climate change.

[ohanian]

Oh my god!

Peak Oil is real after all!

All this time I thought that this site is run by loons.

Guess I was wrong.

[azreal60]

So basically, they are now predicting 5 years after most of the conservative experts of peak oil, and 10 years after the least conservative. Still, behind the times.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

You've gotta be fucking kidding me! THE news we've all been waiting for. Confirmation of our worst fears, and biggest hopes for some. And no one wants to talk about it.

Go figure.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t says that "many observers think that 80 per cent of existing oil production will need to be replaced by 2030"

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

Sorta. What it says is that we will need to replace 80% of fossil fuel energy by 2030. There will still be oil, it will just be unobtainable due to either geologic restraints or EROEI issues.

[madrid]

Wow-- all I can say. Maybe there are some truthful people in the industry and gov't after all.

[Twilight]

Not really, the report is apparently over 400 pages of tedium with a couple of pages' worth of interesting bits and some stuff got cut out of the final document.

Honesty is discounted when it is buried in bullshit.

But it represents progress of a sort, I suppose.

[Zardoz]

Calling Praise Doom: Whaddya have to say about this, bud?

For that matter, why haven't ReserveGrowthRulz and Mike Lynch instantly attacked it? And where is JohnDenver when you need him? I'm sure he could debunk the whole report with just a few insolent remarks.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'F')or that matter, why haven't ReserveGrowthRulz and Mike Lynch instantly attacked it? And where is JohnDenver when you need him?

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t says that "many observers think that 80 per cent of existing oil production will need to be replaced by 2030"

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'C')alling Praise Doom: Whaddya have to say about this, bud?

For that matter, why haven't ReserveGrowthRulz and Mike Lynch instantly attacked it? And where is JohnDenver when you need him? I'm sure he could debunk the whole report with just a few insolent remarks.

[Starvid]

I feel like I have to post it again: the letter from Sam Bodman to the NPC asking for the review. Yes, it includes the words "peak oil".

image

This is from the NPC report:

image

And then they had this interesting conference call with invited bloggers with the American Petroleum Institute on this report.

Mr. Nelson is from the big oil service company Schlumberger, Mr. Eizember is from ExxonMobil, Ms. van Ryan is the host and Ms. Tverberg is from the Oil drum.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '0')0:45:22 MR. NELSON: I do think - the way you phrased your question, you know, kind of made me nervous because what we - we made a distinction between conservation and efficiency. In our mind, efficiency is doing essentially the same thing with less energy. Conservation we deemed as doing without. We're not saying take cars off the road or drive fewer miles; we're saying make them more fuel efficient, make the overall fleet more fuel efficient.

00:46:00 MS. TVERBERG: Yeah, I guess the one thing that happens, though, is that if you really believe that we're reaching to peak oil now, then you start saying, oh, dear; maybe we do need to start looking at taking cars off the road or carpooling or doing something else that really is conservation as opposed to just making the cars more fuel efficient.

00:46:23 MS. VAN RYAN: Again, people are sitting here, Gail, kind of shaking their heads at one another because, again, it depends on what your assumptions are.

MS. TVERBERG: Right, right, exactly.

MR. EIZEMBER: I mean, your statement, if you really believe that we couldn't raise oil production any more than we are producing today -

MR. NELSON: Well, fuel -

MS. TVERBERG: Or not - it's not very much.

MR. EIZEMBER: Fuel production, liquid fuel production, or not very much, then most of the forecasts for economic activity and demand going forward are not going to be supportable in the way they stand.

MS. TVERBERG: Right. That is right.

[bobcousins]

So if I got this right, Bodman says "tell me about Peak Oil" and the NPC says "we don't really believe in Peak Oil. But please give us some tax breaks and let us drill the ANWR ASAP"

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t says that "many observers think that 80 per cent of existing oil production will need to be replaced by 2030"

[Starvid]

aahala: And that's what this peaking stuff is all about. We can't find as much oil as we used too, and after a while that means we can't replace declines and depletion, and then we peak.

[return1880s]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'Y')ou've gotta be bleep kidding me! THE news we've all been waiting for. Confirmation of our worst fears, and biggest hopes for some. And no one wants to talk about it.

Go figure.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')ell at least he moved up his DEFCON level from 'don't worry' to 'serious'.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('return1880s', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'Y')ou've gotta be bleep kidding me! THE news we've all been waiting for. Confirmation of our worst fears, and biggest hopes for some. And no one wants to talk about it.

Go figure.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('return1880s', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'Y')ou've gotta be bleep kidding me! THE news we've all been waiting for. Confirmation of our worst fears, and biggest hopes for some. And no one wants to talk about it.

Go figure.