$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')McDep Associates) submits: Gradually rising prices are accompanying a gradual peaking of oil production and pointing to investment opportunity in buy-recommended oil and gas producers including ConocoPhillips (COP), XTO Energy (XTO) and Occidental
Petroleum (OXY).
World oil production may have already peaked at about 85 million barrels daily (mmbd) where it has been stuck for the past year (see chart Global Oil Production, below). With current demand near 86 mmbd, the difference has been made up by declining inventory.
Gasoline stored in the U.S. is especially low (see chart from the EIA, U.S. Gasoline Stocks, above). The apparent peak may be tested later this year as both the IEA and the EIA, the well-known consuming country government energy forecasters, expect oil production to break out to a new high of 87 mmbd. Regardless, maintaining current production is enough of a challenge, we think, to propel a continuation in the recently renewed uptrend in long-term oil price now quoted at $68 a barrel.
PeakOil is You
Peak Oil Test Looming
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Re: Peak Oil Test Looming
by NEOPO » Wed 30 May 2007, 22:00:28
Bump.
I liked Rod's comment:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA "oil" production figures include biofules and syncrude from tar sands. Because these products have low EROI's, are produced using unsustainable practices and because they have significnt levels of crude oil embedded in theirproduction, I exclude them from the IEA total. Take off 2mbpd to arrive at a "true" production level for crude oil.
The adjusted figures show crude production has actually declined since 2004. This is part of a much bigger picture. Saudi production has had a steep downward trajectory for some time now, but produced a small increase in April. Will Saudi production stabilise? Or will it continue to decline? How fast is Mexico's decline going to be? Canterell crashed 20% last year.
I liked Rod's comment:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA "oil" production figures include biofules and syncrude from tar sands. Because these products have low EROI's, are produced using unsustainable practices and because they have significnt levels of crude oil embedded in theirproduction, I exclude them from the IEA total. Take off 2mbpd to arrive at a "true" production level for crude oil.
The adjusted figures show crude production has actually declined since 2004. This is part of a much bigger picture. Saudi production has had a steep downward trajectory for some time now, but produced a small increase in April. Will Saudi production stabilise? Or will it continue to decline? How fast is Mexico's decline going to be? Canterell crashed 20% last year.
In 2006 I said we were "technically" past peak, actually the title was "way past peak" or "way beyond peak" where I tried yet apparently failed to argue the point that we really did "peak" all things considered, around 1995-2000 as hubbert first predicted.
What about "undulating platuea" do most people not understand and what about "traditional method" do they also misunderstand?
All I got was "dont muddy the water dude".....
WTFever!
Just because we may reach 87mbpd or more is not true peak, it is merely the "traditional method" for determining individual REGION peaks being applied on a massive scale, so massive that it is unrealistic.
Production peak is not peak, dig it?
We are way beyond peak yet we have dug ourselves a little peaker hole to climb out of by insisting on the current definition of peak = peak production.
Do you feel more screwed then before you read this post?
Good, because you are.
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Peak Oil Test Looming
by KevO » Thu 31 May 2007, 10:49:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'B')ump.
Do you feel more screwed then before you read this post?
Good, because you are.
Do you feel more screwed then before you read this post?
Good, because you are.
No. I'm already with ya
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Re: Peak Oil Test Looming
by sylviah » Thu 31 May 2007, 13:32:57
Wait, neopo, are you saying 2000 was the peak in terms of energy content, not barrels per day? If so, have any numbers/pretty graphs to back that up?
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