[Diame]

Peace People,

I am new to the Peak Oil understanding and would like to have some things clarified.

I wonder if the experts could briefly shed some light on some commentaries that attempt to refute the validity of Peak Oil? Thanks!

Commentaries on the Richard Heinberg book Powerdown:

"I'm an (unemployed) agronomist and I live in Brazil.About this book, I must tell you that I readn't it.In fact, a friend of me, send parts of this bad book to me, by e-mail, from America.
She was scare, about the doomed prophecies of this book.
There's so many frauds writen in this book, that I can't count the majority of then.
1)This book claims that end of nitrogen from natural gas, will doom modern agriculture and spread famine.In fact, fertilizers with nitrogen can (and are) be produced with hydrogen from eletrolysis of water, using wind, hydro or nuclear energy.At the same time, using genetical engeneering, vegetables such as corn or wheat will produce his own nitrogen.We must see that soybean don't use nitrogen's fertilizers, because bacterias inside his roots made his nitrogen's fertilizers, without artificial fertilizers.This second alternative will produce cheap harvests, without fertlizers with nitrogen.
2)This book claims that climbing oil prices will doom the world.In fact, whith more oil's price, the alternatives of oil will became better than ever.Ethanol in Brazil costs less then US$50,00 each brent.The Athabasca's oil sands are bigger than all Iraq's oil reserves.The shale oil has trillions of brents in the world.If you ad hydrogen to corn plant, you will produce oil.In other words:there's many future alternatives to the oil."

"Ecologists are anti-capitalistic! These alarmist always want to destroy consumption and quality of life. Conservation never reduces consumption. Innovation provides the only answers.

Oil has never been a growth oriented commodity. The only growth oriented commodity is electricity and hydrogen. Innovations in fusion energy will eventual change the availablity of cheap energy into a higher quality energy called electricity. Fossil fuels have a limited life and the next generation of energy needs to take center stage. Resource wars about the control of money, not about the availability of energy. The earth has trillions of watts of energy all renewable and available. Innovation too higher quality energy will create a vast number of new appliances that will consume more energy. The trend is toward more energy consumption, not less. For example, high definition plasma TVs migrating too 3D holographic TVs generated with low power lasers; hydrogen fuel cell automobiles; photo electric home power generation; and increase digital logic in communication and business.

The world is not overpopulated, the more people the better because capitalism will provide for their needs. Only socialism and communism can destory the sanctity of life. The illusion that land is scarce is all hyped. There is plenty of land for growth.

There is infinite power available. There are always alternatives to war and violence. "Powerdown" has the makings of a terrible novel and his conclusions are potentially all wrong. Ecologist have the most illogical ideas: 1. populations control 2. Conservation ideology 3. anti-capitalism 4. and improverishment.

What are the alternatives to oil? Power mills. Nanotechnology power mills are the next generation of power. A single power mill that can fit in the palm off your hand can provide enough power to run a semi tractor. Power mills will provide nearly infinite electricity. The next technology will be computer intense, powermill core based, and transfer electricity to computer controlled actuators.

The trend will be away from oil commodities and towards electricity. Electricity generation will be localized (homebased powermill, hydrogen generators) (no more power lines needed), wireless communication, and increased digitalization. Infinite power plays havoc with the power of large banks and corporations that unfairly use their power, wealth too gain profitable trade agreements. The author tries to argue that free markets are not perfectly rationale. Well, he stinks! Free markets are perfectly rationale because innovation redistributes both wealth and power. No company monopoly can escape the constructive destructive power of capitalism. China and the US will continue to expand economically and avoid irrational outcomes because capitalism will provide alternatives to war through innovations, as in the case of power mills. Once powermills are a rational alternative to oil, the market force will drive adoption of the technology.

The ecologist are screaming about "climate changes" and food shortages. Scarcity is a distribution problem; scarcity is a political control issue; and banks create scarcity. US Farmers have more than enough capacity to feed the world.

Deforestation is a legitimate factor causing climate changes, but will result in more artifical environments to mitigate the disruptive forces of drought and scarcity. The trend will be towards more "greenhouse" food production for local food consumption. Food scarcity is not a product of lacking capacity; it is a function of artificial scarcity. Israel provides an alternative view of food scarcity as it has learned to bring water to the desert and make it blossom like a rose."

Thanks again!

Diame