[vision-master]

What are yer thoughts?

http://www.jeffvail.net/labels/Geopolitics.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xisting peaking models are based on the logistics curves demonstrated by past peaking in individual fields or oil producing regions. Global peaking is an entirely different phenomenon—the geology behind the logistics curves is the same, but global peaking will create far greater geopolitical side-effects, even in regions with stable or rising oil production. As a result, these geopolitical side-effects of peaking global production will accelerate the rate of production decline, as well as increase the impact of that production decline by simultaneously increasing marginal demand pressures. The result: the right side of the global oil production curve will not look like the left…whatever logistics curve is fit to the left side of the curve (where historical production increased), actual declines in the future will be sharper than that curve would predict.

[Nano]

The US production doesn't look like a logistic curve. The world will also not.

There will be pincushioning of world oil patches, just like in the US. The shape of the world curve will have a *less* steap right side than the left. Exploration and production in the world will be much more frantic then it ver was in the US. The US, after all, could import oil cheaply which drastically reduces the motivation to drill for it. The world, of course, cannot import oil, which is why the "undulating" plateau theory of CERA probably isn't far from the truth when it comes out. Of course, and undulating plateau will be painfull enough as it is...

[MD]

I'm thinking Mr. Vail produces very high quality work.

[Twilight]

Of course the two halves won't quite look the same. The logistic curve is only a model, the input data arises from geological conditions. No forecaster is able, or should attempt, to include economic collapse and/or extraordinary political dislocations into their work. Ultimately a bell curve is a view of the future as it would turn out unless we screw with it.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', ' ')There will be pincushioning of world oil patches, just like in the US. The shape of the world curve will have a *less* steap right side than the left. Exploration and production in the world will be much more frantic then it ver was in the US. The US, after all, could import oil cheaply which drastically reduces the motivation to drill for it. The world, of course, cannot import oil, which is why the "undulating" plateau theory of CERA probably isn't far from the truth when it comes out. Of course, and undulating plateau will be painfull enough as it is...

[Aaron]

In my humble opinion Vale is a disingenuous corporate jerk off, with about as much credibility as toe-jam.

His predictions wouldn't be worth $1 if they came wrapped in $500 bills.

Wanker.

[nth]

I have no idea how he can say that the right will be steeper. It seems like he does not take into account of new production. We are adding 3-5mbpd of new oil production per year and this rate will accelerate for the short term due to new found oil fields. Don't get me wrong. These new found oil fields are one time deal and we will not be able to just keep finding new basins full of oil.

I am curious what he is forecasting for new discoveries.

[whereagles]

It's easy to see why the right tail decline is sharper than the left increase:

As the extraction technologies get more sophisticated, the less the production will behave as a sponge being squeezed and the more it will behave as a can being sipped through a straw.

And we all know how it's like sipping a straw. It's all fine and dandy until it suddently ends

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')n my humble opinion Vale is a disingenuous corporate jerk off, with about as much credibility as toe-jam.

His predictions wouldn't be worth $1 if they came wrapped in $500 bills.

Wanker.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')are to explain why or cite examples that support what you wrote here?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')n my humble opinion Vale is a disingenuous corporate jerk off, with about as much credibility as toe-jam.

His predictions wouldn't be worth $1 if they came wrapped in $500 bills.

Wanker.

[NEOPO]

Why does it always have to be someone from Ohio!?

[jeffvail]

And all this time I assumed you meant this guy:

www.jeffvale.net

But, for the record, I probably am a jerk-off

On the substantive points: I agree, the logistics equation that underlies the Hubbert Curve is just a model. I don't know whether the left and the right side of the geologically-dictated curve will look the same--I should have been more clear on that. My point is that whatever the geologically and economically-dictated right side of the curve does look like, I think that geopolitical factors outlined will make realized production fall short of this potential.

~Jeff

[MacG]

I think this might be just about the only thing Hubbert missed. Otherwise he covered all bases, even the banking system, and there is very little which has been added beyond Hubbert in the endless discussions here and elsewhere.

The right side of the peak could very well look like falling off a cliff somewhere in the coming 5-15 years.

The very process of oil extraction is just as integrated in the globalized bank-loan funded JIT processes built on the assumption of infinite growth as everything else.

In order to extract oil you need a h*ll of a lot of high-tech stuff, sourced globally. There is no special "fast lane" for the oil extraction industry, shielding it from the rest of the economy.

[NEOPO]

I think the idea has much merit.

Peak Oil is NOT when we peak in production as is commonly believed. A peak in production was merely the signal that Peak Oil for any given region had arrived.

As has been noted by myself and a few others here, we may be way past peak which, if true, would surely add weight to this position.

Tons to add but I dont want to have all the fun

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')n my humble opinion Vale is a disingenuous corporate jerk off, with about as much credibility as toe-jam.

His predictions wouldn't be worth $1 if they came wrapped in $500 bills.

Wanker.

[Aaron]

Went well thanks...

And I was just razzin Jeff a bit 'cause I saw he was looking at this thread.



I know... I know.

PAX Ya'll

[Newsseeker]

The decline could be greater than anticipated given the loops.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is quite common to hear “experts” explain that the current tight oil markets are due to “above-ground factors,” and not a result of a global peaking in oil production. In reality, geological peaking is driving the geopolitical events that constitute the most significant “above-ground factors” such as the chaos in Iraq and Nigeria, the nationalization in Venezuela and Bolivia, etc. Geological peaking spawns positive feedback loops within the geopolitical system. Critically, these loops are not separable from the geological events—they are part of the broader “system” of Peak Oil.

[shortonoil]

Good article Newsseeker and we should thank the author for crediting the Oil Drum and Jeffery.

There is one more feed back loop that we can take into consideration, the energy cost of oil wars. The US has greatly reduced its capability to reduce its dependence on oil through the huge investment it has put into Iraq. The resulting reduction of infrastructure investment, of the alternative energy type, greater efficiencies and improved technology, will accelerate our overall decline, making further wars more likely. For example, the finances we have put into Iraq would have built a least 50 nuclear power plants. These would have added to our GDP, which would have allowed for more infrastructure investment. Instead there will be greater political momentum, when PO firmly strikes, to pursue a policy of securing resources through military means. If we are not very careful and vigilant, we will have entered a continually decaying loop .

[DantesPeak]

Mods - this should be merged with Right side of the oil curve will not look like the left?

Good article.