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Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby eclipse » Sun 15 Apr 2007, 23:46:49

I was nagging away in another science forum about peak oil and suddenly this dude said "But we've only explored about 10% of the world anyway!"

Yeah right. I had already put up the "Growing gap" discovery v consumption graph. I don't believe his 10% claim for one moment.

But is there any world map that illustrates exactly where has been thoroughly explored, seismically tested, surveyed, etc?
Or a continent by continent map?

Cheers
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby Loki » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 00:35:05

Whoops, sorry, I misunderstood. You might want to specify that you're talking about OIL exploration.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 01:05:08

Yeah, that's right, the continents that have been explored and surveyed for oil.

Anyone here anything about gravimetric sensors that can detect oil from planes? What about satellites? If they had these doovers on satellites, then surely the whole planet has been thoroughly explored?
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 01:31:43

The first link I came across with a cool looking graphic. :roll:
"50% of the world's petroleum reserves - cluster within 27 regions, or about 30%" http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/proje ... fields.htm
Image <-- Cool looking graphic.

It's true that there is a lot of under the sea that is unexplored, however oil accumulation happens in the locations which have been pretty well explored, hence why companies have stopped making big oil discoveries...
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 02:08:01

Thank you both, I'll read more when rush hour is over and the kids are in bed.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 20:03:24

Don't forget potential oil reserves in the oceans. Thats where most of whatever new oil provinces and supergiant fields that are there to be found are hiding. The Nigerian Delta concession area and the deep offshore in the Gulf of Mexico have both recently yielded up some new big fields.

The Arctic Ocean remains largely unexplored, as does the Antarctic Ocean.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby eclipse » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 20:32:30

I have not found anything above that certifies what percentage of the world has already been explored, so I'm back to arguing that 54/65 most significant oil producing nations have already peaked and oil companies always try and find the best oil fields first, and they've had over 100 years to do this... the last 40 years with increasingly fantastic technology but decreasing results.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby eclipse » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 20:46:08

That's what I thought — but do you have a source for that? Some credible quote?

Also, what about deep-ocean fields? How do they even explore for that?
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby peripato » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 21:09:52

In this article, Dr. Ali Bakhtiari discusses the potential for new oil and gas frontiers. Some excerpts;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..in its four-yearly Olympiad known as the 'World Petroleum Congress' [WPC], the oil industry used to have a major panel session dedicated to highlighting and reviewing the latest developments in such frontier areas.

Snip…

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y the mid-1990s, it had become evidently clear that the 'frontier areas' had dried up; consequently, its WPC session vanished into thin air. At first, 'frontiers' cancellation came as a surprise; but, it was nevertheless a logical consequence to the undeniable fact that there were no such areas left to explore !! The industry had by then covered the whole globe both onshore and offshore --- exception made for the two polar regions, the Arctic and Antarctica…
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 11:13:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he entire planet has been surveyed, most recently by satellite photography. Anticlines are apparent from space and oil regions are known.


Sorry but this is a gross oversimplification and basically incorrect. In the distant past it was possible to locate potential hydrocarbon traps with surface features (eg: would be William D'Arcy in Iran in the early 20th century) but from the seventies onwards that schtick had pretty much run it's course. And what we know from places like the overthrust in North America, Latin America, the Ghadames basin in Algeria, Sirte basin in Libya and the Gulf of Suez is that surface geologic features might have vague clues to what lies beneath the surface but they are not a fait a compli...indeed many huge pools went ignored for decades simply because wells drilled on surface features proved to miss the underlying accumulations. What it took to find these missed hydrocarbons was the development of high resolution seismic data. Finding capabilities gradually increased through the nineties with the development of 3D seismic, telemetry and better processing algoritms for noise and multiple attenuation. That being said there are still areas where we are left scratching our heads simply because seismic data is not a pancea and often sound waves cannot effectively penetrate the rock strata in order to properly image potential hydrocarbon traps. Scientists are now playing around with new seismic techniques, EM technology
We do know the general stratigraphy of most areas of the world (although somewhat inferred for Antartica), we also know generally where the very richest source rocks have been deposited. What we still don't know for certain areas is details regarding potential sealing capabilities, burial and heating histories for basins, diagenetic histories etc. These are fairly important. As an example last year there was what could be a reasonably significant discovery of oil in the modern day rift basin in Uganda. Conventional wisdom had always suggested this area was unlikely to have oil present simply because the Tertiary source rocks were buried too shallow. What was forgotten, however, is that the heat flow in the rift is around 110 mW/m2, about 4 times that noted in onshore cratonic basins. It was this higher heat flow that likely is responsible for hydrocarbons having been generated at such shallow depths. In some areas our knowledge is just building. An example of this would be offshore Greenland where it is believed an active petroleum system should be present but there are still considerable uncertainties and lots of work to be done, including seismic acquisition. In offshore South Africa the first of BHP's wells which target very large structures and potential Tertiary turbidite deposits (much like Angola) will be drilled this year, what is unknown is whether there is a mature source rock in the area...it haven been inferred from results of the ODP program drilling which occurred tens of kilometres away. Even in North America there are places such as the vast area beneath the Plateau basalts in Washington and Idaho where seismic has been unable to delineate potential drilling targets simply due to the inability for sound waves to penetrate the shallow volcanic layers.
As I've said before it is getting tougher and tougher to find good exploration opportunities around the world but that does not mean the world is completely surveyed, far from it. Although much of the potential continental slope regions have seen seismic at one time or another, much of this is 2 D data of 1970's or 80's vintage. There are many documented cases where newer high resolution 2D data or 3D data has located hydrocarbon traps which were not previously known from older 2D analysis.
Also when you speak of "surveying the world" it is important to understand that there are a number of factors that contribute to hydrocarbon accumulation that require different methods of investigation. The 5 big categories are Source, Reservoir, Migration, Seal and Trap. Seismic can generally tell us where the traps might be but be need wells to determine the potential for reservoir source and seal. Although there are lots of wells in certain parts of the world there are still others where almost no drilling has taken place.
In summary we do know something about most basins in the world but there are areas where we knew something about the basins that suggested hydrocarbons would not be found which were proven to be wrong. Conventional wisdom is not a good metric in the oil and gas exploration business.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 19:46:54

Thank you, that's a very interesting reply.

I'm still getting the general vibe — for a layperson such as myself anyway — from what you are saying that we really have found all the low hanging fruit that was easy to find. That there might be 1 or 2 low hanging apples left, just hidden behind an unusual "bough" around the next tree, basically only confirms that the majority of the "orchard" has already been searched.

So, if it's down to seismic stuff now, that must make deep sea testing quite challenging? Do they have to lower sensors to the sea floor before they set of charges? Mind blowing stuff.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 22:25:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat there might be 1 or 2 low hanging apples left, just hidden behind an unusual "bough" around the next tree, basically only confirms that the majority of the "orchard" has already been searched.


Well I think at anytime in the history of oil and gas exploration we have had times where it all looked bleak and then along came a new technology or a new idea. The one unknown in some of the prolific basins that have been explored for tradiitional structural closure traps is whether or not there are some seriously large stratigraphic traps that have gone undetected. Over the past 5 years I find this becoming more and more of a theme for oil companies. We do know that the largest closures (outside of Ghawar which is really a 1 percentile in the world log normal distribution of oil and gas reservoirs) tend to have a stratigraphic component...this is the case in the Sirte basin in Libya, some of the fields in the Gulf of Suez , the GOM and West Africa. We also know that stratigraphic traps are extremely difficult to identify with the technology of today. So by analogy I'd suggest that perhaps we have explored the low hanging fruit but there is a substantial amount of not so low hanging fruit that we can get if we only have a ladder that will reach.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, if it's down to seismic stuff now, that must make deep sea testing quite challenging? Do they have to lower sensors to the sea floor before they set of charges? Mind blowing stuff.


No generally seismic acquisition offshore is basically the same with the exception of extremely shallow water where it is necessary to use ocean bottom cables. There are of course differences in setup regarding seismic array and other things that I won't bother you with but we are capable of imaging generally quite well in 3000m of water which is about the maximum water depth that can be drilled in so far. The main challenge in deep and ultra deep water is drill costs which have gotten quite horrendous.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 19 Apr 2007, 00:17:21

I get the impression you actually work in the industry?
If so, what's the vibe? Where are your colleagues on this topic... how aware are they even of the "Growing gap" chart, etc?
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 19 Apr 2007, 10:58:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou seem to have confidence in missed oportunities and expensive technologies that are always 'just around the corner.'

the 'ladder' is a metaphor for new exciting technologies that seem to be constantly in development or in the prototype stage.



Hardly close to the truth. The advancements in technology as it relates to oil and gas exploration over the past twenty years have been astounding.

- in about a five year period the maximum water depth that was drilleable and then produceable from went from about 400 m to nearly 3000m. Technology such as tension leg platforms is fairly astounding to my mind.
- vibroseis technology during the period 1990 to about 1998 went through some huge changes (eg: larger vibrator trucks, variable frequency sweeps) all of which contributed to much better imaging of sub-surface targets.
- seismic processing throughout the nineties and right through to present continuously is going through significant changes. We went from simple processing of low fold 2D migrated data through the ability to process extremely high fold 2D data with a number of data transforms that improve signal to noise quality through to the ability to process huge volumes of 3D data in time throught to the ability to process that data as pre-stack depth migration data and finally to some very advanced processing techniques to look at things such as amplitude versus offset which have been a significant contributor to success in the GOM. Much of this is possible due to improvements in computing. When I started out in this business it required several boxes of punch cards to set up a simple processing flow for one 2D seismic line which would be run on a mainframe that took up half a floor of the building I worked in, the runtime usually would be overnight. Now it is possible for a geophysicist to run that same program with a few clicks of a mouse on his desktop Unix machine, the runtime usually enough to allow him to walk down the hall and get a cup of coffee.
- the advancements in drilling technology over the past 10 years are also astounding. During that time we have seen the invention of coiled tubing drilling and only a couple of years ago application of this same technique in a thousand metres of water depth. We've seen the advent of long reach horizontal drilling, multi-lateral completions and the eventual combination of maximum reservoir contact wells (MRC). Bit technology has also gone through continuous changes, the bits that come out each year generally cut better and last longer. We have also seen the advent of downhole steerable drill bits which allows for the high tech horizontal drilling to very finite targets. Coupled with steerable wellbores is the advent of LWD (logging while drilling) which started out as just including a simple gamma ray log run a few metres back from the bit to now where a full suite of logs can be obtained while drilling. This technology has reduced overall costs in the North Sea immensely and is partly responsible for making ultradeep water drilling economic.
- completion technology has also advanced considerably. Well-fracs used to be limited to shallow reservoirs where it was only needed to stimulate a few metres away from the wellbore to very deep, megafracs which can create stimulation hundreds of metres away from the wellbore.

I could go on and on with regards to this subect but I think my point is made. I am not aware of any technology as it relates to oil and gas that was promised but never delievered. Perhaps you might want to give some examples of these prototypes of which you speak?

The business is continually subject to change and everyone is focussed on "deeper, cheaper and better". Is there a limit to what technology will do for us? Probably, but I wonder if that isn't more a limitation of current human imagination.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 19 Apr 2007, 17:20:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat have these exploration and production tools actually delivered other than promises?


Well I would say we have seen a lot delivered from this technology. In the ultra deepwater (>1000 m) worldwide there have been slightly over 60 discoveries since the late nineties which have resulted in 8 producing pools at present and a total 2P reserve base of 7.4 BBOE divided mainly between Brasil, Angola and GOM. In the GOM some of the shallower deep water discoveries were made made in the late eighties by Shell, these were not brought on stream until 95-99 as they required technological advances but were eventually delivered. There have been some very significant finds in this area since the late 90’s including Thunderhorse, Mad Dog, Atlantis, Great White and Tahiti. The GOM deepwater production is currently around 895 KBpd compared to 169 KBpd in the late nineties. According to Wood Mackenzie GOM production should rise to around 1.7 MMpd by 2009. All of this production would come from discoveries already made which are waiting on appraisal, facility construction etc. (there are around 12 pools sitting out there waiting to be brought on stream). From a total reserves point of view IHS predicts the total resource (OOIP) for deepwater around the world is 800 BBOE, 46 BBOE of this is in the GOM and 15 BBOE of that in the Eocene trend (according to the US Mineral Management Service). In Angola there has been discovered around 9 BBOE (2P) according to IHS Energy. Current production in the deepwater has risen from nothing in 1999 to 700 KBpd currently. This production is expected to rise to around 2.4 MMBbp in 2012 from discovered fields such as Rosa, Plutonia, Kizomba and Dalia. In Nigeria a good example would be the Bonga and Bonga SW fields which are in 1000 m of water depth and were discovered in 1996. It took until last year for the fields to be fully appraised, facilities built and approvals achieved in order to start production. The field is expected to peak around 230 KBpd by 2009. These are all pretty significant finds, most of which sit in the category of Giant fields as defined by Halbouty (> 500 MMB).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ocdoc, these exploration tools are great and may find hundreds or thousands of new tiny fields that then have to be developed and tied together for collection and delivery. Do we know the effort will generate enough net production to be profitable? Will they make up for decline? doubtful.


Well according to IHS Energy data when you ignore the unconventional oil, just taking the added production from discovered fields for which development plans have been approved has the potential to bring us to a higher production and a peak out around 2014 or so. The issue isn't whether these pools can be produced or will be produced the issue is whether there will be delays beyond the projected startup dates.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')magination has nothing to do with a finite planet overpopulated and overproduced.


I disagree entirely with that statement. Imagination will be the only thing that allows for changes to the way we live that will keep the planet from collapsing economically on itself. You can take the view that "everything is bad, it isn't worth even bothering thinking about it we are done" or you can take the attitude "OK this is what we have been doing so far, what do we have to change, how can we change, what key technologies that we don't have do we need to affect some change, what are the true limitations?". I've heard too many times in the past comments such as "well you'll never find any oil in such in such formation or in such and such basin" only to see that ascertain disproved as a consequence of someone willing to not accept "conventional wisdom" and do a bit of out of the box thinking.
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Re: Map of thoroughly surveyed continents?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 19 Apr 2007, 21:45:04

Hi Rocdoc:

Do you think there is any hope for methane hydrates as a major fuel source?

When do you think that might come on line?
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