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Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari: We are in T1

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari: We are in T1

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 11:27:14

Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari has proposed that we are currently in the first of four transition phases leading to a reduction of 30 million bpd by 2020. Over the course of the next 14 years societies will move through these phases of decline. The first phase starts in 2006 and we are currently seeing a decline of about 675,000 bpd from the high reached in December 2005. The first phase of T1 is barely felt but Dr. Bakhtiari admits that there could be surprises. Each phase lasts 3-5 years and the final phase, T4, is steep. So far EIA data seems to support both Deffeyes and Dr. Bakhtiari that we have entered a new phase of decline. 675,000 bpd is slight and not enough to be felt but we can be sure that this decline will only increase as fewer megaprojects are scheduled to come on-line to make up for the existing decline. 2006 is definitely new territory and more information on the subject can be found by readign "Crude Oil: The Day After Tomorrow" on http://www.sfu.ca/~asamsamb/sb.htm

This interview puts forth his ideas quite nicely and summarizes the general trend: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1683169.htm

Welcome to T1 and 2006, the small beginning of a new era.

Enjoy!
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby IslandCrow » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 11:38:11

Thanks for posting this.

Do you have any links to where I can find more details about the Transitionary phases (ie where it spells out the volumes for T2-T5)?
We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
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Volumes

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 11:52:29

The different phases are just referred to not by volumes but rather by how they will be felt. T1 is slight, T2 is perceptible, I forget what T3 is, but T4 is steep. In all it is a decline to 55 million bpd in 2020. At the ASPO conference one speaker was saying that non-OPEC production would decline from about 30 million bpd to 10 million bpd by 2015.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby Torion » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 12:20:07

Bahktiari's website"

Bahktiari's WEbsite
There is no where to go but Earth!
Except for space ......
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 12:54:07

And yet, down, down, down go those oil prices. (I know, it's just a meaningless short-term fluctuation, but it's still very irritating.)
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog

"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 13:30:03

Interesting how Bahktiari and just a few others actually predicted less production in 2006 than 2005.

Still it's even hard for POers like myself to accept just how far oil production could fall.

I have to quibble, but I think that oil production won't be down as much as stated above for 2006. Even so, slight reductions in supply as populations increase and standards of living rise should put upward pressure on prices.

If prices don't go up and demand continues to grow, world inventories of oil/products should start running down soon - if not already. US oil/product inventories have dropped 20 million barrels in just the last three weeks.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby grink1tt3n » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 14:19:47

Gah, we live in interesting times, eh. :)

So glad I found this board a couple of weeks ago.

By the way Dante, I always get a kick out of your avatar!
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 15:50:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')nd yet, down, down, down go those oil prices. (I know, it's just a meaningless short-term fluctuation, but it's still very irritating.)

Irritating?!

Investment opportunity is what it is! 8)
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 15:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grink1tt3n', 'S')o glad I found this board a couple of weeks ago.

Don't believe everything you read. Or rather, ignore most of it.

You might want to check out http://www.theoildrum.com/
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby Concerned » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 15:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')nd yet, down, down, down go those oil prices. (I know, it's just a meaningless short-term fluctuation, but it's still very irritating.)


Patience Peak Oil is a time game. Markets prices are more short term 12-24 months.

I'd sit back relax and wait for 2010-12 :) If december 2005 was the Peak then definately we'll see it in the rear view mirror by then.

It will also give a clearer picture of Tar Sands, Shale, Gas, Ethanol, Wind and other issues like global warming, potable water, soil erosion, ocean fish stocks etc...
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby Karl » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 16:01:21

The spot price of oil doesn't tell the whole story. Futures are still hovering around $70.00. Witness the CEO of IATA lamenting:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.') "The recent fall in spot prices for oil has provided a boost, though prices for forward purchase remain close to $70 per barrel"


Mind you the airlines are doing well:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The net result for the industry is more profitable growth and we are confident that the industry will improve the bottom line to a loss of $1.7 billion for this year"
Not even the size of a small hedgefund! Everything in the great Capitalist system is fine....keep depleting all the resources, cause the plantet to burn and not make a cent....

air transport online
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby grink1tt3n » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 16:04:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')Don't believe everything you read. Or rather, ignore most of it.

You might want to check out http://www.theoildrum.com/


Thanks for the information.

I found theoildrum and peakoil on the same day, and I've been reading both since. I try to take everything in both forums with a grain of salt.

Before finding these discussions, I had simply no idea our energy/climate situation was so precarious (in the long run). It looks to me like oil has been an *incredible* free ride in terms of an energy resource (all of that energy concentrated in such a convenient liquid form).

It's apparent to me now that will we have increasing competition for a decreasing resource. We will also have to deal with the damage done to our ecosystem, and this damage will be a significant constraint when considering alternative energy forms.

I had always assumed things would just work themselves out, and we'd continue to grow, grow, grow...
Last edited by grink1tt3n on Thu 02 Nov 2006, 16:15:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 16:13:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')f prices don't go up and demand continues to grow, world inventories of oil/products should start running down soon - if not already. US oil/product inventories have dropped 20 million barrels in just the last three weeks.


And I listened to an analyst yesterday say inventories were at "tank top" levels. Heh, thats great except for those same tank tops held a considerably greater surplus 5 or 10 years ago over our current demand. I have to shake my head sometimes when I hear this stuff. I think ole Bhaktiari is on to something. Even If he
is off by a good amount its still an ugly scenario and its going to play out inside the current generation.

I'm 45, have driven fast cars, fly Airliners for a living, and flown the most sophisticated fighter aircraft known to man. I ve partied in far away places and seen a good bit of the world. At this point I'm happy for the chances and glad I took them. I am very worried about the future for my children though. Its a tough thing to watch them grow up in a world that may not know the plenty I have seen.

I'm not bragging, If anything Im ashamed at having done nothing about it. Turthfully I didnt really know until recently but that doesnt give us the right. We should have been doing something long ago.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby sameu » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 16:58:31

yes well generation y will be serious pissed at generation x
and generation z doesn't have a clue yet, still live in the fantasy world of having a great job, lots of money and stuff in the future
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 17:10:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grink1tt3n', '.')..I had always assumed things would just work themselves out, and we'd continue to grow, grow, grow...

...which we obviously can't do, yet we continue to kneel before the altar of perpetual economic growth. Infinite growth based upon finite resources on a very finite little planet is an easily debunkable premise, but we're only now starting to realize it. The vast majority is still buying into it. We're going to have one holy hell of a time getting off the eternal-growth paradigm.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby kjmclark » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 19:02:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')es well generation y will be serious pissed at generation x
and generation z doesn't have a clue yet, still live in the fantasy world of having a great job, lots of money and stuff in the future


You've got to be kidding! The baby boomers screwed everything up, not generation X. We're too small to do much of anything. It takes generation X and Y to match the baby boomers. That's why the baby boomers will soon bankrupt the country. They're the reason we're digging the peak oil and climate change holes deeper.

I wonder if historians will attribute the fall of the American Empire to energy supply disruptions, economic problems, imperial overstretch, or just political mismanagement. The Roman collapse has been attributed to all of those, as well as plague and invasion. I suspect we'll have our version of plague in the next 20 years as well.
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Re: We are in T1

Unread postby airstrip1 » Thu 02 Nov 2006, 19:51:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')es well generation y will be serious pissed at generation x
and generation z doesn't have a clue yet, still live in the fantasy world of having a great job, lots of money and stuff in the future


You've got to be kidding! The baby boomers screwed everything up, not generation X. We're too small to do much of anything. It takes generation X and Y to match the baby boomers. That's why the baby boomers will soon bankrupt the country. They're the reason we're digging the peak oil and climate change holes deeper.

I wonder if historians will attribute the fall of the American Empire to energy supply disruptions, economic problems, imperial overstretch, or just political mismanagement. The Roman collapse has been attributed to all of those, as well as plague and invasion. I suspect we'll have our version of plague in the next 20 years as well.


Can't we give this baby boomer, generation x, y, z crap a rest.

It is so boring.
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