[Oilgood]

I've often heard that oil demand grows at 2% per year, while supply after the peak will drop at 3% per year. But it occurs to me that this may not always be the case. Sure, supply will drop more and more each year after the peak, but due to recession, stagflation, depression, and substitution as a result of high oil prices, won't demand growth decrease and maybe even become negative after a while? Won't this mean that the market will at least allow for a "soft landing" after the peak? How much of a time lag should we expect between the peak and significant changes in people's demand and consumption of oil, and will that be enough? It seems the fall after the peak may be severe at first, but then won't things smoothe out in the long run despite oil's demand inelasticity?

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oilgood', 'I')'ve often heard that oil demand grows at 2% per year, while supply after the peak will drop at 3% per year. But it occurs to me that this may not always be the case. Sure, supply will drop more and more each year after the peak, but due to recession, stagflation, depression, and substitution as a result of high oil prices, won't demand growth decrease and maybe even become negative after a while? Won't this mean that the market will at least allow for a "soft landing" after the peak? How much of a time lag should we expect between the peak and significant changes in people's demand and consumption of oil, and will that be enough? It seems the fall after the peak may be severe at first, but then won't things smoothe out in the long run despite oil's demand inelasticity?

[Brewer]

From my point of view the underlying problem is that human population is far in excess of that which nature would allow without the aftificial support of stored hydrocarbons. Since this excess population is only here because we are tapping a once in a planet's life accumulation, then as there is less and less available windfall energy, there will necessarily be less and less population. Can a significant reduction in population be a "soft landing"? Certainly it won't feel soft to those whose lives terminate. Starvation, disease, and social violence are the tools that nature can use to enforce her rules.

When things break they can do so suddenly and have consequences out of proportion. A wire burns up in your house and while the damage to the piece of wire is not significant, the consequence can be far reaching, at least temporarily. Surely it was far easier to adjust to the new way of life ushered in by the discovery and exploitation of oil than it will be to adjust to the new way of life ushered in by the delpetion of oil; for one thing there will not be the excess energy available to cushion the changes and to fuel the cost of adjustment.

I remember reading somewhere that for the bulk of human history life was short and brutal. This is our probable destination, back to short and brutal. The trip will be characterized by alternating periods of sharp drops, plateau, less sharp, but more steady declines and times of recovery. Overall, however the march toward the ultimate destination of a population in balance with the rules of nature.

So far I have heard of no invention that will lay at the feet of humanity easy energy as was done so by oil.

[savethehumans]

Uh--who says that nations are going to just quietly break their oil addiction? If they can't afford it, they'll just TAKE it! Resource wars are/will be a way of life. And sure, they'll gouge the prices to rip off people, but they'll be smart enough to not charge MORE than what people can afford--if they have no market, they make no money! And if they only sell to the rich, the rich will soon find ways to keep them from raising prices TOO high! (There are other items/services that can be bartered--IF oil prices are "reasonable." And, of course, good old-fashioned blackmail will never go out of style....)

The one thing that WON'T change--there's only so much oil that can be pumped before it's no longer economically sound to do so (harder to reach, heavier and harder to process, only so much you can charge for it before the blackmail begins, etc).

The economic system we all know and tolerate (if not love) is about to come a-tumbling down, people. The oil barons can keep making money (or possessing barterable valuables) and keep the addicts happy--for awhile. But the system by which they, and the armies, operate is gonna get WAY more, uh, CRUDE and primitive....

[Barbara]

Wars are expensive and most of all are higly oil-consuming.
There will be a day where it will be chaper to buy oil than to steal it from other countries.

[Permanently_Baffled]

Good point Barbara. As has been highlighted here many times, war worsens the oil supply , it doesn't improve it as infrastructure gets blown up by terroists. I fear that the US will pursue oil by force and actually compound the problem......

PB

[Tanada]

I bumped this thread as a gentle reminder that we have been arguing the rates and dates for over eight years now without coming to any conclusion other than probably soon.

It might help for everyone to look at threads like the one Pops put up recently, the Plateau is the Peak, but how long will it last?

As the Plateau draws to a close we need to make realistic discussions about after the peak. Not the End Is Nigh kind of talk, but grounded in reality what if anything can regular people do to cushion their impact?

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')s the Plateau draws to a close we need to make realistic discussions about after the peak. Not the End Is Nigh kind of talk, but grounded in reality what if anything can regular people do to cushion their impact?

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') bumped this thread as a gentle reminder that we have been arguing the rates and dates for over eight years now without coming to any conclusion other than probably soon.

It might help for everyone to look at threads like the one Pops put up recently, the Plateau is the Peak, but how long will it last?

As the Plateau draws to a close we need to make realistic discussions about after the peak. Not the End Is Nigh kind of talk, but grounded in reality what if anything can regular people do to cushion their impact?

[Palpatine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') bumped this thread as a gentle reminder that we have been arguing the rates and dates for over eight years now without coming to any conclusion other than probably soon.

It might help for everyone to look at threads like the one Pops put up recently, the Plateau is the Peak, but how long will it last?

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') bumped this thread as a gentle reminder that we have been arguing the rates and dates for over eight years now without coming to any conclusion other than probably soon.

It might help for everyone to look at threads like the one Pops put up recently, the Plateau is the Peak, but how long will it last?

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')And when it plateaus again, can it continue to increase another time like it did this time?

[Palpatine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')And when it plateaus again, can it continue to increase another time like it did this time?

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Palpatine', '
')MonteQuest's vision of ecology was along the line of mass human extermination

[Pops]

Palpantine, as far as I can see reviewing your 78 posts the last 4 days, you've added nothing to the conversation except a large number of ad homs. If you have something constructive to add, welcome. But otherwise there are countless anonymous comment boxes out there just made for silly taunts, if that's all you have, take it there, we are not interested.

Consider this your warning.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')And when it plateaus again, can it continue to increase another time like it did this time?

[Tanada]

Okay members, lets try and stay on topic shall we? Excising grossly off topic stuff wastes time I would rather be using for other things. Thanks.

Personally I think the fall will probably go one of two ways, either we will be rappelling down the slope extracting everything we can to slow the rate of descent. Or we will be bouncing down the slope rapidly as nobody can drill as fast as we need them too to create a gentle rate of descent. Option two could happen because of politics, economics, or just plain bad luck.

I vastly prefer option one as it means transition can take place in a smoother and more orderly fashion.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Palpatine', '
')But I thought after peak it doesn't matter what we do. Supply was never supposed to rise again.... EVER !!!

[Palpatine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Palpatine', '
')But I thought after peak it doesn't matter what we do. Supply was never supposed to rise again.... EVER !!!