[americandream]

We're running at about 87mb/d demand according to the IEA, and 85 mb/d supply...see link

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Can anyone see any surplus capacity lurking around sufficient to take up the demand momentum as well as shortfall....I can't see a sufficiently robust demand kill with 2 billion Chinese and Indians queuing up at the pump....not enough to accomodate average momentum anyways.......so that looks dead in the water......looks like we're going to have to beef up capacity.......either by sucking up more of the black stuff of bringing new alternatives to market.

I can't see robust enough alternatives to take up the slack....uranium's the hot favourite in Australia......but it looks to me like no sooner does the oil spigot run down or get exceeded......the other stuffs simply going to take up the slack...leaving us with a stale mate...for a bit....till we tip.

Anyone have any ideas or market tips on robust viables?

[fafhrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'W')e're running at about 87mb/d demand according to the IEA, and 85 mb/d supply...see link

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Can anyone see any surplus capacity lurking around sufficient to take up the demand momentum as well as shortfall....I can't see a sufficiently robust demand kill with 2 billion Chinese and Indians queuing up at the pump....not enough to accomodate average momentum anyways

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fafhrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'W')e're running at about 87mb/d demand according to the IEA, and 85 mb/d supply...see link

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Can anyone see any surplus capacity lurking around sufficient to take up the demand momentum as well as shortfall....I can't see a sufficiently robust demand kill with 2 billion Chinese and Indians queuing up at the pump....not enough to accomodate average momentum anyways

[fafhrd]

There's a good bit of irony wrapped up in your comments. You're urging me to think global all the while missing the big picture. Notice the big liquidity squeeze in the past few months? Collapse of emerging markets and all that? Brought to you courtesy of the Bank of Japan and the Fed, the hammer and anvil of interest rates.
With desolate first world markets, those asians are going to be crying right along with the rest of us.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fafhrd', 't')hose asians are going to be crying right along with the rest of us.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fafhrd', 'T')here's a good bit of irony wrapped up in your comments. You're urging me to think global all the while missing the big picture. Notice the big liquidity squeeze in the past few months? Collapse of emerging markets and all that? Brought to you courtesy of the Bank of Japan and the Fed, the hammer and anvil of interest rates.
With desolate first world markets, those asians are going to be crying right along with the rest of us.

[miraculix]

So where is the 2 mb/d supply/demand shortfall coming from?

[NEOPO]

uhm sorry that we rarely manage to stay on topic.

Yes there seems to be some spare capacity yet it also seems to be only heavy sour crude.

This is where EROEI and DENSITY OF MATTER come into play.

[Gazzatrone]

Well according to the E.I.A's World Oil Balance from 2002 - 2006 for a time Supply coped with demand, but in two quarters 2005 4th and 2006 1st, demand out striped supply.

2005 4th

Supply = 84.29
Demand = 85.61


2006 1st

Supply = 84.56
Demand = 85.29

Now the yearly Average balance has it that supply met demand for 2005 but only just 84.34 to 83.97.

With this in mind it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that the longer a trend continues the faster it becomes to being an Average. I'm not a betting man but I'd say it was a safe bet that by the end of this year the Average balance will have swung to Demand exceeding supply.

If that is the case, if there is any spare capacity now, why isn't it being used to balance out the difference. If this trend continues then it is a fair assumption to make that 2006 will be the year Peak finally arrived.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fafhrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'W')e're running at about 87mb/d demand according to the IEA, and 85 mb/d supply...see link

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Can anyone see any surplus capacity lurking around sufficient to take up the demand momentum as well as shortfall....I can't see a sufficiently robust demand kill with 2 billion Chinese and Indians queuing up at the pump....not enough to accomodate average momentum anyways