[Graeme]

How much oil do we really have?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or quiet some time Kuwait's official oil reserves have remained static, hovering around an agreed figure of 94 to 99 billion barrels of proven oil, although some sources put it as high as 101.5 billion.

To work out for how many years we will be able to sustain our current economic system I took the official numbers and actual production levels.
For example, if we produce a million bpd (barrels per day) in 15 years time we would have consumed 5.475 billion barrels out of a reserve of X billion. If production rose to 1.5 million bpd, then in 15 years we would have consumed 8.212 billion barrels. At 2 million the figure would be 10.950 billion. Currently, we are producing an average of 2.65 million bpd, which would set the figure at 14.508 billion barrels. Based on current exploitation levels, I decided to do some further calculations to see how many years we could expect to sustain such production levels.
With the highest estimates available, 101.5 billion, we come up with a figure of about 105 years of oil exploitation if we maintain average production at 2.65 million bpd. However, these figures are the most optimistic. Using the amended reserve estimate of 48 billion and the same calculation, we obtain a figure of 49-50 years at best. Even so, it is believed that of these 48 billion, only 24 billion are actually accounted for, which only gives us a meagre 25 years of production.

[grabby]

We have billions of gallons left.
but we are using billions of gallons every other day...

PEAK OIL could be the point when 1/2 or more of the oil has been used up.

Using a general alleged rule of thumb for exponential (increasing)
growth:

the time to use up the remaining half of the bell curve only takes one more doubling time without reductions in use.

second half may certainly possibly "go much faster", since there is INCREASING DEMAND.

at peak oil we are starting our last doubling time or less...assuming an imperfect world.

now from the peak, work backwards in time until the production level is just half of the peak output.. 41 million barrels per day for the world.instead of the 82 million barrels per day now.

1985...(approx)

Note the years back to this point, that is the doubling time. 20 years lets say. that is the time we will be completely EMPTY.

this is the MAXIMUM time we have left.

Mathematically, when you are at peak, and all things remain the same, you have only one doubling time till you run completely dry.
but we are not germs, we are oil burning bipeds. We''ll find ways to burn the kitchen sink on top of all that...

Since we can't pump all the oil out, we have actually less than the Doubling time.

But trouble will start ong long before we RUN OUT.
Long before 20 years.

When we peaked in 1970 in Amrica, it didn't take 20 years to get a shortage.

So can we use this information to predict trouble?
NO!

I just know in amrica we hit peak oil in 1970 and in 1973 we were hurting really badly with "DA BIG GAS SHORTAGE" all kinds of wild fun! I was in line for hours. It was really fun!.

1/5 of the doubling time we did not run out, we ran scared.
People skipped work to stand in gas lines no kidding!

So using the grabby post peak flat coaster troubling time estimator:
(patent pending)
I say a couple years and were in trouble.
and I think we hit peak al ready.


have a nice day.

Remember the downside of the bell curve. drops off just as fast as it increased, in a perfect world. But this world is imperfect so it is subject to taxation.

and nothing is certain almost.

[whereagles]

Hum.. just out of my head..

2-3 trillions of barrels of light sweet crude (1 Tb already used)
1-2 trillions of barrels of shale oil
2-3 trillions of barrels of tar sands oil

So we should have something like 5 to 8 trillions of barrels.

In the worst-case-scenario, we have 2 trillions of light sweet, which will be the only kind we'll be able to extract at a 80 million/day rate.

In the best-case-scenario, there'll be 8 trillions for grabs and we'll be able to use them all.

However, oil worst-case = global warming best-case and vice-versa. You take pick, we screwed. It's called "conservation of misery"

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', '
')2-3 trillions of barrels of light sweet crude (1 Tb already used)

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', 'H')um.. just out of my head..

2-3 trillions of barrels of light sweet crude (1 Tb already used)
1-2 trillions of barrels of shale oil
2-3 trillions of barrels of tar sands oil

So we should have something like 5 to 8 trillions of barrels.

In the worst-case-scenario, we have 2 trillions of light sweet, which will be the only kind we'll be able to extract at a 80 million/day rate.

In the best-case-scenario, there'll be 8 billions for grabs and we'll be able to use them all.

However, oil worst-case = global warming best-case and vice-versa. You take pick, we screwed. It's called "conservation of misery"

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Looks like we didn't use our cows wisely....