[mistel]

The problem I have with the idea of Peak Oil, is that I am being told that this time it is "different". The world has progressed from using one type of fuel to another over the centuries, but the Peak Oil idea is that we will not progress to another type of fuel this time, at least not without earth shaking consequences. I am not sure I buy it.
I remember in the early 1990's there was a lot of concern about the huge national debt that Reagan had runup. I read a book about "the coming black debt" that was going to cause another Depression. I sold off some investment property because I wanted to have less debt. In retrospect, it was a bad move. So what happened to the "black debt"? Clinton came in with some moderate economic policies and all was well.

So, Why is it "different" this time?

Peter

[azreal60]

God I'm not even sure what part of that to answer. Your asking a Huge question. I mean, I can answer it, but what part of peak oil are you asking about? Are you asking about the economic aspects, or the political aspects or the geopolitical aspects? Or the effects on you, on your town/city, your county/state, or your nation? Cause all those will fill webpages. So try to narrow your topic, unless you want me typing most of the night.

[XOVERX]

You argument is quite reasonable if I understand it correctly. I think your argument is: "some other fuel always has come along in the past, so I expect some other fuel will come along in the future."

If this is your argument, then ok, it is reasonable. But flawed. Here is why:

Fusion: This could solve mankind's energy problem. Unfortunately, fusion still isn't solved. Question is: Is there time to solve the riddle and build the plants?

Tidal Waves: Harnessing the waves of the ocean could solve mankind's energy problem. Unfortunately, ocean wave energy is extremely inefficient with current technology. Question is: Is there time to develop the requisite efficiencies?

Solar: Harnessing the energy of the sun could solve mankind's energy problem, if same could be contructed in space and the energy transported to earth. Unfortunately, the efficiencies aren't there, and the transport is a problem. Question is: Is there time to develop the efficiencies and the perfect associated technologies?

Wind: Great stop-gap bandaid, but cannot replace oil.

Biofuels: Minor help, but cannot replace oil at all. May arguably be counterproductive.

Nuclear: Great stop-gap bandaid, but cannot replace oil. Uranium, like oil, is a depletable resource, and will not last much longer.

Others: Not worth talking about.

So, let's just wait around until one of the "answers" to oil emerges and "wins out" over the others, and so "replace" oil, right? Like we replaced wood with coal? And coal with oil? Why worry?

The problem is that all these potential replacement energies will take a whopping amount of energy to perfect. And what is the energy source that has to hold out until they are perfected? Well . . . it's oil.

There is a real and present danger that at current consumption, increasing daily, there will be insufficient oil to hold out until the alternative sources are developed.

If there is not enough oil left to develop these alternative energy sources at current consumption, then at some point (1) the oil must somehow be hoarded to devote to research of these alternative energies, or (2) we forget about research, drive our jalopies, and keep on keeping on.

Alternative #1 may or may not work, but you and I may not live through the die-off that will be required if oil is unavailable to the masses (I like to eat). Alternative #2 is simply, "hello neo-neolithic", or, more likely, "bye-bye homo sapiens sapiens."

So, to answer your question more succinctly: There may not be enough oil left at current consumption levels, growing daily, to develop the alternatives to oil.

And this may be the great failure of corporate capitalism, otherwise incredibly productive, unforeseen by Bernard Mandeville and Adam Smith. Selfishness is a great motivator -- if resources are inexhaustible.

[paoniapbud]

It may help to read some excellent books on the subject. Beyond Oil by Kenneth Deffeyes; The Empty Tank by Jeremy Leggett; Power Down by Richard Heinberg; The Party's Over also by Heinberg; The End of Oil by Paul Roberts.

Believe me, after you read these and get into it you will feel like you are screaming in the wilderness just like the rest of us.

[paoniapbud]

Good call. Thanks!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mistel', 'T')he problem I have with the idea of Peak Oil, is that I am being told that this time it is "different". The world has progressed from using one type of fuel to another over the centuries, but the Peak Oil idea is that we will not progress to another type of fuel this time, at least not without earth shaking consequences. I am not sure I buy it.

[Peak_Plus]

Most of us who have the question, why will it be different this time, make one tragic assumption. We assume that we have ALWAYS in the past moved from one energy to another.

On the contrary. Humanity has hardly ever moved to a new type of energy.

Half a million years ago we discovered how to control fire.
That worked til forests ran out. When the forests ran out, that was that. Civilization moved elsewhere or died. Or conserved. THEY DID NOT MOVE ONTO THE NEXT SOURCE OF ENERGY.

The Greeks and the Romans invented water wheels and even a steam engine. BUT THEY DIDN'T CHANGE THEIR ENERGY SOURCE:

The middle ages moved to wind and water. Could that be why Europe ended up taking over the world?

I'm sorry to say, but it is not NORMAL to just move on to the next source of energy. In the case of oil, I am very pessimistic, but only the future will tell...

[seven]

Our high 'standard of living' is based entirely on cheap oil. Most of the products that we depend on are made from and/or produced with/by oil. Man-made fabrics are oil-based. The food we eat is grown with oil-intensive methods on large farms using large quantities of oil-based pesticides and fertilizers, and use oil products to transport around the country and world. All plastics are made from oil. Many pharmaceuticals are oil-derived in part. Most of the items and resources we buy or use in our daily lives are oil-dependent on multiple levels for harvest, production, manufacture, transport, and sale. Take the 'cheap' out of the oil equation and we are in serious trouble.

Previously, humans used a finite resource for one or several crucial or important elements of life, but never before has a large civilization depended entirely on ONE non-renewable, finite resource for almost everything to maintain their entire way of living - food production, clothing, medicine, transport, manufacturing, heating/cooling, everyday products - the list is endless. (sure, some earlier peoples used corn, for example, for everything from food to fabric to whatnot, but they didn't have to support millions of humans with it, and grew the renewable resource themselves - and when there wasn't enough corn, the population and lifestyle necessarily contracted) Cheap oil is as central to our mode of large-scale, industrialized, first world living as breathing air is to human life...it's both the building block and the fuel for our civilization's existence. And there is NO alternative resource or combination of resources that will take the place of cheap oil for the staggering range of modern uses and requirements - it's simply not possible.

Sure, a few alternatives will be used to partly offset the oil problem in some ways, heating, transport - but the crux of the issue is that our lives are built on the large-scale consumption and multi-use of ONE finite, non-renewable resource - worse, one finite resource at a CHEAP price. Once that resource is not cheap, or not widely available in the huge quantities required to support our everyday uses, our way of life will first be increasingly expensive across the board, then disrupted, then crippled, then GONE. Moreover, since oil is the building block and fuel of the entire industrialized economy which fuels our lifestyle, once there are waves of supply disruptions or scares about its availability (which are starting to happen now) markets and economies may falter or even collapse before any actual 'oil emergency'.

That is why it's 'different this time', and why we won't 'just move to another resource'.

[Nike62]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', 'A')nd this may be the great failure of corporate capitalism, otherwise incredibly productive, unforeseen by Bernard Mandeville and Adam Smith. Selfishness is a great motivator -- if resources are inexhaustible.

[Peak_Plus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')I'm sorry to say, but it is not NORMAL to just move on to the next source of energy.

[mistel]

Thank you for all your replies. I don't often post on Peak Oil, but I have been lurking here for many years. I have also seen the movie "The End of Suburbia". I understand the problem of "Peak Oil".

But this is what I have seen happening. I have seen lots of new plans for alternative energy. I believe Richard Branson is aiming to fuel his planes with ethanol.http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory ... /story.htm

My breaking point was $1 per Litre (Canada). I have changed both my cars to diesels and I use waste vegetable oil. I have gone from using maybe 1300 gallons per year to maybe 80 gallons per year. I also supplement my Natural gas heat with wood. My next project is a glass solarium to collect heat in the winter, with solar hot water panels.

There are two new Smart cars in my neighbourhood, and those are just the ones I have noticed. I see one guy that has two or three wind generators. I can buy a wind generator kit at Canadian Tire, an autoparts store!

http://www.canadiantire.ca/intro/homepage.jsp

I see a gradual change to more efficiency as the pain at the pumps and the cost of utilities inceases

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mistel', 'B')ut this is what I have seen happening. I have seen lots of new plans for alternative energy.

I see a gradual change to more efficiency as the pain at the pumps and the cost of utilities inceases

[Fergus]

I cant offer any insite into why this is different, but I do have a question that ties into the origianl question. As I have started to learn, we are starting to hit the bottom of the barrell, so why are the States building huge freeways. Immediately west of my house at the end of the street, they have begun an expansion of the highway system. As I leave to go to work, the store, where ever, I pass by the site and see the huge equipement and vast mountains of materials. I wonder if the Government knows we are heading into an abyss, why are they letting states, infact funding the states, to build these highways when the oil used to make these would be better served waiting in a tank somewhere or being diverted to more power plants or anything but building an item that will be totally useless in 25-50 years.

As I see it, its full progress ahead and nothings going to change. The Governments (federal,state and /or local) seem to be oblivious to this situation and ok's tons of money to build things we dont need or wont need in the near future. All the signs I see point to more growth and a status quo. Not an irreversible slide back into donkey power and ankle express modes of transportation.

Are the governments just that irresponsible. Do they have a full understanding of the porblem? As I have read, we have had lecturers, scientists and others give notice to congress, the president and other governing bodies. Why are they not being more fiscally responsible. Now I dont expect them to come out and say the world will end in 50 years, but they can do what they do and not tell us anything (why should this issue be different from any other). Not only using dollars, but lots of oil in the process. It just seems a huge collosal waste to me and even an impeachable offense if they know full well not a single car will be able to drive on that finished highway in 50 years. So what gives?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fergus', 'I')I wonder if the Government knows we are heading into an abyss, why are they letting states, infact funding the states, to build these highways when the oil used to make these would be better served waiting in a tank somewhere or being diverted to more power plants or anything but building an item that will be totally useless in 25-50 years.

[Fergus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fergus', 'I')I wonder if the Government knows we are heading into an abyss, why are they letting states, infact funding the states, to build these highways when the oil used to make these would be better served waiting in a tank somewhere or being diverted to more power plants or anything but building an item that will be totally useless in 25-50 years.