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Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby Hammer22 » Wed 24 May 2006, 17:17:05

And oh my, its certainly ruined my day...

I mean I'm not completely ignorant and knew this was going to happen eventually, but I was at least grasping at straws of hope that world governments wouldn't let things spiral to the point of decade long wars.

I'm 17 years old, and it seems this affects me alot now, esspically since I'm going to be the kid whos going to get drafted into a war brought on by generations before my time, orchestrated by people I'll only ever see on TV, fantastic. I'm currently doing my A-Level's, in Physics, Maths, Chemistry and a side AS in English Language, and I'm hoping that if I do well there they might just save me if what you people predict is correct. I tell you what, I really wish that "Life After the Oil Crash" website wasn't so seriously depressing, woah I feel bad now...

Urgh, I seriously hope you guys are wrong and we're able to scrouge together suitable alternative resources; for example I swear I saw a website depicting a personal hydrogen fuel production kit currently in prototyping stages... Ha, maybe that'll work out hey :p

Some words of reassurance people?
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby mekrob » Wed 24 May 2006, 17:44:13

Don't worry about LATOC. I think Matt is the only one that really thinks it will get that bad. Most find a level in between the four horsemen and a permanent recession.
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby Hammer22 » Wed 24 May 2006, 17:46:33

Thanks for the advice pstarr, and very warm welcome.

I can already see what you mean though about people not interested to know about this though, and instead bode for the ignorance is bliss policy. At the moment though, I kind of feel I do need to talk about this, as it really has paniced me a lot, but I guess the initial shock subsides eventually...

And thanks too for the book recommendations too, I'll be sure to check a few of them out (well perhaps not the shit scary ones :p).
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 24 May 2006, 18:24:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hammer22', 'T')hanks for the advice pstarr, and very warm welcome.

I can already see what you mean though about people not interested to know about this though, and instead bode for the ignorance is bliss policy. At the moment though, I kind of feel I do need to talk about this, as it really has paniced me a lot, but I guess the initial shock subsides eventually...

And thanks too for the book recommendations too, I'll be sure to check a few of them out (well perhaps not the shit scary ones :p).


The psychology forum here and the ROE 3 forum are perfect for you current situaiton:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty3/

Best,

Matt
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby emailking » Wed 24 May 2006, 18:43:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'D')on't worry about LATOC. I think Matt is the only one that really thinks it will get that bad. Most find a level in between the four horsemen and a permanent recession.


Aside from loss of all technical knowledge, I think his scenario is a pretty good guess.

At the very least it seems like conflict with China is inevitable. Their offensive buildup suggests they're looking to take us out. I don't think we're going to respond too kindly to that.
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby Cynus » Wed 24 May 2006, 18:48:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'D')on't worry about LATOC. I think Matt is the only one that really thinks it will get that bad. Most find a level in between the four horsemen and a permanent recession.

For example, me. I only see 3 horsemen.
One of these now am I too, a fugitive from the gods and a wanderer, at the mercy of raging Strife.
--Empedocles

http://apoxonbothyourhouses.blogspot.com
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby clueless » Wed 24 May 2006, 18:50:30

Follow the money !!!

We are spending more than the entire world combined on weaponry. If you want to know what the immediate future holds warfare is going to be it. I actually think Bush and Cheney really think they can take over the world.

Yes, I agree go slow on sharing this with people - Especially spoiled baby boomers who didn't tell any of us the truth in the 70's. Wait until they complain about gas prices or something then lead into it. It's really not that bad, it kind of grows on you. You are in pretty good shape, Matt is a good one to seek advice from on that - stay out of debt and don't make any stupid decisions that will allow the Bankers to control your life....


Matt's book isn't that bad, I thought it rung very true with another book I am very fond of... (don't worry Matt I won't say it).
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby mekrob » Wed 24 May 2006, 19:05:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'D')on't worry about LATOC. I think Matt is the only one that really thinks it will get that bad. Most find a level in between the four horsemen and a permanent recession.

For example, me. I only see 3 horsemen.


Exactly what I was talking about.

Has your site changed much in the past year Matt? I haven't looked at it since I stumbled upon PO. There was no coverage of China when I read it...
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby emailking » Wed 24 May 2006, 19:35:56

That's in his book. And my point was that a war with China could lead to extincition, which is much worse than his most likely scenario.
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby LogicMan » Wed 24 May 2006, 20:57:37

If you feel you are a well balanced person go ahead and scare yourself. The shock will pass and you'll be left with choices. Generally people who board up the doors and by guns don't fare well in life, I wouldn't suggest it. Try instead to lead a normal life but be guided by the general concepts of the doomsayers. Avoid the housing industry for instance, be financialy conservative as someone above stated, envision what you might do under some of these circumstances and be flexible. DO NOT shun the modern world, be part of it but try not to overly rely on the more wasteful facets of it.

This website has many negative people, negativity will not help you. Don't confuse this with pessimism, you can think the shit's gonna hit the fan and be positive too. Poke around some, you'll find ways to understand this better without dwelling on doom. It will be to your benefit.

Welcome to the world of uncomfortable knowledge.

Nate
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 24 May 2006, 21:37:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emailking', 'T')hat's in his book. And my point was that a war with China could lead to extincition, which is much worse than his most likely scenario.


The central committee folks aren't nuts. They like their luxurious lifestyle and leadership roles. China's build up is a defensive build up; they have no designs on nuking US cities; if we have a fight over Taiwan both the major parties are going to do everything in their power to keep the conflict localised. We'd eventually lose that fight because of these strains, but Taiwan would be left a burned out, useless rock. That final part is why China won't go that route, they have, for years now, used sounds of verbal outrage and military manuevers to express their displeasure when Taiwan does something that annoys them; and yet, Taiwan remains seperate from the PRC. Finally, Taiwan's economic contribution to the mainland is much larger than what the PRC would net in taxes after such a conflict, and that is the final arbitter of what ACTION will occur. Is the PRC economically better of with Taiwan as a contributing, renagade province; or with Taiwan as a burned out, unihabiltable rock? Answer should be obvious.

Then I fall back to the lessons of RealPolitik. Protect your own interests, and be sure to make room for the interests of the other great powers. It is as much in our national interest to insure that China has a reasonable supply of oil, as it is to insure our own access to oil. The same, in reverse, is seen and understood from China. Our actions over the past decade have in fact reinforced that to the point it is extremely unlikely we would go to war with each other over anything.
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby clueless » Thu 25 May 2006, 16:29:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you feel you are a well balanced person go ahead and scare yourself. The shock will pass and you'll be left with choices. Generally people who board up the doors and by guns don't fare well in life, I wouldn't suggest it. Try instead to lead a normal life but be guided by the general concepts of the doomsayers. Avoid the housing industry for instance, be financialy conservative as someone above stated, envision what you might do under some of these circumstances and be flexible. DO NOT shun the modern world, be part of it but try not to overly rely on the more wasteful facets of it.

This website has many negative people, negativity will not help you. Don't confuse this with pessimism, you can think the shit's gonna hit the fan and be positive too. Poke around some, you'll find ways to understand this better without dwelling on doom. It will be to your benefit.

Welcome to the world of uncomfortable knowledge.

Nate


Yes - it is all a state of mind. Accepting a future that will hold less instead of more is nothing other than a different way of thinking.

I do admit this is difficult with the media programming most people get, I found it much easier to accept due to the fact I quit watching TV and started studying history. You will find most people, historically, dealt with hardship very regularly. The difference is we haven't dealt with any hardship, especially in this country.

We have been living in a party of convenience that is simply just coming to an end, and we will be forced to live more like the historical norms. Just like Nate said, avoid debt, continue your normal life, and pay attention to modern convenience instead of taking it for granted.

And don't assume the future will hold more of what we have today, that even makes it better becasue every day we have convenience is much more precious.
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby Ayoob » Thu 25 May 2006, 17:02:08

Happy happy joy joy

It was when I found the above website and dug into it that I became willing to understand what the endgame is.
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby clueless » Thu 25 May 2006, 17:15:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')appy happy joy joy

It was when I found the above website and dug into it that I became willing to understand what the endgame is.


Come on, Haven't you heard ?

Hydrogen, Nuclear and Ethanol are going to save us.....

[smilie=BangHead.gif]
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby Ayoob » Thu 25 May 2006, 17:30:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')appy happy joy joy

It was when I found the above website and dug into it that I became willing to understand what the endgame is.


Come on, Haven't you heard ?

Hydrogen, Nuclear and Ethanol are going to save us.....

[smilie=BangHead.gif]

After all that shit gets built we plug those numbers in. Until it gets built it is all theoretical.

It's pretty simple to me. 8% decline per year. Divide 8 into 72 for a time of 9 years for daily production to decline by 50%.

This is 2006. 85MBD
Then 2015. 42.5MBD
Then 2024 21.25MBD
Then 2033 10MBD
Then 2042 5MBD (I turn 70 this year... retirement just around the corner)
Then 2051 2.5MBD

Remember that without fossil fuel inputs... that means completely without any fossil fuel inputs at all... food production (can't remember which crop... maybe it was Wheat) drops from 130 bushels to 30 bushels per acre.

And that's the end of the ballgame. There is no soft landing, there is increasing competition for life-sustaining resources until the reindeer have eaten all the lichen on the island.

And then the herd drops from 1000's of individuals to about 30.
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby clueless » Thu 25 May 2006, 17:36:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen 2042 5MBD (I turn 70 this year... retirement just around the corner)


retirement

Whats that ?

[smilie=dontknow.gif]
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby MattSavinar » Fri 26 May 2006, 18:57:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')appy happy joy joy

It was when I found the above website and dug into it that I became willing to understand what the endgame is.


Come on, Haven't you heard ?

Hydrogen, Nuclear and Ethanol are going to save us.....

[smilie=BangHead.gif]

After all that shit gets built we plug those numbers in. Until it gets built it is all theoretical.

It's pretty simple to me. 8% decline per year. Divide 8 into 72 for a time of 9 years for daily production to decline by 50%.

This is 2006. 85MBD
Then 2015. 42.5MBD
Then 2024 21.25MBD
Then 2033 10MBD
Then 2042 5MBD (I turn 70 this year... retirement just around the corner)
Then 2051 2.5MBD

Remember that without fossil fuel inputs... that means completely without any fossil fuel inputs at all... food production (can't remember which crop... maybe it was Wheat) drops from 130 bushels to 30 bushels per acre.

And that's the end of the ballgame. There is no soft landing, there is increasing competition for life-sustaining resources until the reindeer have eaten all the lichen on the island.

And then the herd drops from 1000's of individuals to about 30.


Ayoob,

I take it your strategy can be called the "last reindeer standing" strategy. After all, on St. Matthews Island, the reindeer population after the dieoff was 42 females and 1 male I believe.

Best,

Matt
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby jdumars » Fri 26 May 2006, 19:36:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'A')fter all, on St. Matthews Island, the reindeer population after the dieoff was 42 females and 1 male I believe.


Yeah Matt, but that was one HAPPY reindeer!! :razz:
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Re: Just read up on this peak oil stuff...

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 26 May 2006, 19:40:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hammer22', 'A')nd oh my, its certainly ruined my day...

...Some words of reassurance people?


Go with the flow, I guess.

Look, nobody really knows what's going to happen. We don't know how bad it's going to get, or how people will react to the changes. We can certainly anticipate some very tough economic hardship, and an end to the luxurious, wasteful lifestyles so many of us live, but beyond that is a fogbank. We don't know what waits for us in the fog.

It's as if we know we're leaving on a trip soon, but we don't know when we're departing, we don't know how we'll be travelling, we don't know what we'll encounter on the way, and we don't know where we're going.

How do you figure out what to pack under those conditions?

Stay loose, young man, and learn all you can. Better to be psychologically ready for the changes than clueless and shocked when they arrive. Sounds like you'll be as ready as any of us will be.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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