[lateStarter]

Given our recent events in the last 3-4 months, who are we looking at as the current odds-on-favorite in the race to the bottom?

Africa is not include in the poll for obvious reasons...

Ok. Maybe I was being too coy... I believe there are only 2 viable choices on the list (UK/US). And I mean in the sense - the bigger they are, the harder they fall...

[Eddie_lomax]

Unless our current UK leadership (if you can call the collection of self serving airheads in parliment that) starts taking charge of the countries destiny instead of leaving it to flap in the free market wind then I predict the UK will carry on where it left off in the 70's - going down.

This country has been dealt a great set of cards in life - coal, oil, gas, arable land, plenty of wave and tidal power, unfortunately we've got the joker card sitting in westminster.

[rogerhb]

Remember with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom".

[crapattack]

France, but no reason. Just guessing .

[lateStarter]

[quote="Eddie_lomax"]Unless our current UK leadership (if you can call the collection of self serving airheads in parliment that) starts taking charge of the countries destiny instead of leaving it to flap in the free market wind then I predict the UK will carry on where it left off in the 70's - going down.

This country has been dealt a great set of cards in life - coal, oil, gas, arable land, plenty of wave and tidal power, unfortunately we've got the joker card sitting in westminster.[/quote

Nice, but it begs the response - (actually, a couple) what country/empire would you have prefered to have lived in? I don't see many in history that have been dealt better cards than some of those currently in charge.

Seems like all successful empires end up being governed by incompetent greedy twits. In the business world it used to be called the 'Peter Principle'.

[coyote]

UK. Her resources are depleted; North Sea production in decline; natural gas supplies in Europe are tight and England is last in line; there are only a few nuclear plants, and no new ones online till 2017. And she's one of the first in line to receive the full impact of Climate Change.

Of course, the economic meltdown of the United States should be something of a wonder to behold...

[pigleg]

Iraq

[GenghisKen]

Australia followed by USA because they are both totaly reliant on suburbs for housing(both still have SUV's), just in time delivery to their shops, and both have clueless populations and both are working quickly to become poor countries as fast as they can.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GenghisKen', 'A')ustralia followed by USA because they are both totaly reliant on suburbs for housing(both still have SUV's), just in time delivery to their shops, and both have clueless populations and both are working quickly to become poor countries as fast as they can.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I voted for the UK cause its already going in the crapper. Everyone else either has a bit of reserves or has connections to keep them afloat. UK though because of Iraq has alienated tons of old allies and no one trusts them anymore.

US will keep sucking on the teats of its northern neighbour. So I think Austrialia might be next but I hear they have good relations with Indonesia.

[smallpoxgirl]

I said UK also. They've gotten pretty comfy off the North Sea, but that rug looks like it's being pulled. I don't see how they're going to replace it, especially vis-a-vi natural gas.

[Wildwell]

I voted the US, because:

1. The distances involved between cities
2. It’s heavily car orientated culture and suburban development
3. The reliance on airlines for domestic travel
4. The amount of guns and firearms in the community
5. The lack of public transport in virtually all settlements except New York, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago.
6. Heavy national debt
7. Complete lack of public awareness on environmental issues.

On the other hand it is still has plenty space and resources, and most freight travels by rail/water.

The UK does have problems, the decline of the North Sea will not help, nor will the reliance on road freight. There is probably too much population in some areas. However:

1. Urban development is mixed use, fairly dense by US standards and walkable.
2. Apart from rural areas the country is well served by public transport, although this has declined in coverage since the 1960s. The fact is I can travel from near my house to Switzerland, most parts of Germany, and the South of France by electric train, mostly in less than a day.
3. Airlines are not needed for domestic (inland) transport, and despite their arguments about how much they are worth the fact is British jobs have been constantly shipped abroad and immigrants brought in by them. UK seaside resorts have declined remarkably and they take more people out than bring in. Moreover, their role in business is set to decline with the internet. The tourist industry is valuable, although the UK can be accessed by most of Europe by ease and trans-atlantic flights won't end anytime soon.
4. Generally free open media and government, and a fair level of environmental awareness.
5. Low level of firearms in the community.
6. Extensive tides, wind energy and pioneer of Nuclear energy.
7. Underutilised farms.

[crapattack]

Don't write the UK off too soon, they're tough bastards who when their balls are to the wall will fight tooth and nail. There is just no way that the Brits won't put up a fight and like Wildwell says, their infustructure is pretty well designed. Their energy problems are massive and they will need solutions, but climate change is going to hit them pretty hard too. Maybe they will return to being a seafaring nation.

[SoothSayer]

Sadly the "true Brit" of WW2 vintage has almost died out.

The kids (sadly even mine) have been infected with a me-me-me culture, and their education is terrible.

Employers often have to teach new starters basic maths & English grammar.

The pending problems from our multi-culturalism are also very worrying.
Unlike the USA, our immigrants are almost encouraged to retain their old culture and language. It is leading to a very fragmented society.

Blair has revised the electoral boundaries to improve the chances of a labour government in elections.
In some Labour voting areas 75% of the electors are financed/employed by the state.
Overall 44% of the population is financed/employed by the state.
This means that the opposition parties have a much reduced chance of winning any election in the future.

The Blair government has also passed law after law after law curtailing the rights of the British people.

Our manufacturing base has almost gone.

Our famed service industry base is declining about 2% a year.

Our oil and natural gas have suddenly decided to fade away.

Blair's chancellor has also raised UK taxes to the highest recorded in history.

Our judical system is a joke: murderers can get trivial sentences.

Our police seem to have become very, very politically correct ... they are no longer friends of the populace.

Our pension system & health systems are in terminal decline.

Overall, the UK is turning into a s**t hole.

This is leading to a massive rise in popularity for the BNP, an extremist Right Wing party.

Things are not looking good.

And now Peak Oil has kicked off .... oh wonderful ...

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'R')emember with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom".

[Andrew_S]

I voted China.

I don't have links but I believe the Chinese have been operating rolling blackouts for a couple of years. The country is experiencing increasing desertification: one third of the country is almost desert (note the recent sandstorm problems in Beijing). Many of their main rivers are at low levels due to overuse threatening agriculture and most are badly polluted. Protests and riots over pollution are common. The country is massively overpopulated and could suffer famine if global grain yields decline (which seems likely even without PO).

They are facing severe problems *now*. These problems are not solved by nuking others or sending astronauts into space.

Of course, I'm not saying the others don't face severe problems but I reckon China leads in the fundamentals. I've now concluded that Leaf was right and the UK is in second place out of that list.

[Licho]

Well it's certainly not going to be UK. It has considerable diplomatic clout and is not hated as much as US. UK has ideal position for all kinds of renewable energies, huge tidal and wind potential and development in these areas has already started.
And of course, even though most brits probably dislike current leadership, society and goverment are well aware of some long-term problems like global warming and resources decline..

No reason why to expect UK to hit bottom first.. It can well be China with it's huge reliance on fossil energies and lack of food or US.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

I voted US, they're oil need is just too great, of course that makes them also the most dangerous. I don't need to tell you about their military power. I can't really see how they can continue for that much longer (decade or two).

I hope the UK can be turned around. Hopefully our small size will help us but first this shitball Government has got to be ousted, I agree with all the points and huge problems that soothsayer has already mentioned for the UK, and I believe it will take an effort of more than WWII proportions to sort things out, but things would have to look very different.

[LX1]

i highly doubt it's gonna be as bad as you guys think...also i belive the US will do whatever it takes to maintain their way of life....once PO awarness becomes more mainstream, lots of conservation will happen which will buy us more time, lot's of steps taken tword alternative energy...the US has alot of money and resources to do this. whoever said something about the US's debt...that is not a problem whatsoever ATM. we are not just going to sit back and wait for oil to run out, that's nonsense.

[LX1]

in the absolute worst case scenario in which oil runs out and the us does nothing before or when that happens like you guys predict(extremely unlikely to happen) then yes, the us will most likely fall the hardest.