[thuja]

After poring through hundreds of threads, I have yet to see very much on time-based scenarios of what will occur SPECIFICALLY in different locations throughout the world. There is a lot of generalizing about powering down, loss of oil/gas creating an immediate depression with subsequent massive unemployment. There has been talk of nuclear/coal as mitigation from you soft landers, to die-off in the streets from the uber-doomers. But mostly people talk in generalities.

In this thread, please talk about whatever location you are interested in, when you believe peak oil will or has occurred and your future projections.

Example:

Location: Oregon

Year of Peak Oil: 2005

Future short term, 2005-2012

Declining oil/gas reserves lead to fuel becoming increasingly expensive. U.S. attempts at mitigation through ramping up coal and nuclear are not able to mitigate the increased costs. Recession develops throughout the globe. In Oregon, the recession leads to a ramping down of industry and the economy. Less taxes lead to a severe crisis in the state government's ability to pay for schools, social services and infrastructure. nemployment eventually rises to 10 percent as individuals and families look to ways to curtail their use of fossil fuels for transportation and home heating. Liberal Portlanders express deep anger at not having social programs and schools adequately funded. Conservative Oregonians begin campaign to cut taxes as a way to offset gasoline and natural gas expenses. This worsens the crisis.

Future midterm 2012-2020

Oill not only becomes incredibly expensive but intermittent at times and brownouts are becoming common. Richer Oregonians develop a "Home Castle" movement, spending their money on security measures, gating and armed security to protect themselves as burglary, theft and overall crime increases dramatically. The rich move their kids to private schools in droves, leaving a floundering and decaying public school system. Many of the poor turn to crime as a way of getting food as social service money dries up. Big businesses such as Target, WalMart and Home Depot go out of business as there is a lack of expendable cash for purchases.

Job loss increases to 20 percent in the Portland area and a new movement of intense localization develops among the local population. Increased home sharing, back and front yard veggie gardens, bartering, bicycling and mass transit become tremendously popular. The unemployed take on the role of neighborhood gardener, security, daycare provider, woodsman, plumber and electrician in exchange for rent, food and bartered goods.

People bankrupted by job loss and personal debt lose their homes and move in with family all over the country. Huge ghettos are developing in the late teens out of housing that is not near available paying jobs. Soon many people have all living family members or groups of likeminded friends sharing a single residence with only one or two employed workers in the household. Frictions develop between those who have jobs and money versus those that don't. Portland and Eugene fare better than some rural communities where jobs have dried up intensely and increased develops, especially between Hispanics and Caucasians.

Long term picture 2020-2035:

Fossil fuels begin to become incredibly precious and used only for essential needs by the working class such as for chainsaws, high mpg scooters and emergency transportation. Otherwise only the wealthy continue to drive cars. Car jackings make it difficult for many wealthy people to use them as well and streets are often seen empty by 2030. Portland, Eugene and Salem pass ordinances in the late 20's allowing farm animals to return to the city and we see the beginning of a wholescale movement towards reincorporating horses for transportation and rural land labor. Some of the ghettoized portions of outer Portland are bulldozed and turned into farm land. Older people and poor people who cannot heat themselves or afford incredibly expensive health care and medications begin dying fairly quickly. There is also a strong increase in violent assaults over money, food and shelter.

The ongoing recession has devalued the dollar to such an extent that most paid work begins to be less lucrative than work for barter. With hyperinflation, many people have paid off their homes but find that they cannot afford many food staples and have no alternative sources for heating besides gas or oil. Many turn to wood stoves which creates increased local air pollution as well as tree poaching in the state forests. Food scarcity begins to be a strong issue throughout the 20's but many parts of Oregon are able to get by due to fertile nearby farms and a strong spirit of cooperation between many different faith based and municipal groups. There is a movement towards offering food and shelter for labor and many of Oregon's poor begin working on farms and woodlots to provide food and heating for the rest of the state.

Without enough state income, the public school system falls apart to such a level that most kids are schooled by unemployed teachers in exchange for other goods and services on a neighborhood level. There is not enough money to pay for an adequate prison system which leads to criminals escaping jail terms. This leads to vigilante justice in some rural parts of Oregon.

As Oregon moves away from fossil fuels, most of the state realizes it has to adapt to the new circumstances instead of hoping for a fix on the national level (although most Oregonians still hope or demand that). 19th century technologies increasingly play an important role in everyday life but many people are driven to despair or crime by the scarcity of heat, medicines and food in the times to come. Riots don't come to Portland or Eugene although crime increases dramatically (especially burglary) and violent battles between rural poor and migrant hispanics do occur.

The feared for hordes of Californians never do come as most are financially overwhelmed too quickly to be able to move, unless they have family members in Oregon. Instead, the population begins to peak by the early teens and then starts to rapidly slide as Hispanics leave, the elderly and poor die more quickly and couples have less kids due to financial constraints.


So, this is just one example of a possible scenario I see. Please feel free to join in if you want to be specific.

[IanC]

As a fellow Portlander, I have these points to make as well:

The salmon are toast. The Columbia Basin is blessed with tons of hydroelectric power and we'll see a lot more damming, or at least preservation of the dams we have once we reach the teens.

I think we are going to see a lot more people coming here than you predict. I could see the increased crime in the cities, but I think Oregon will be very attractive to a lot of people who are now in unsustainable areas - think Las Vegas!

On the hopeful side, Oregon is way ahead of the curve on the local food movement. Look up some of the articles from Oregon Tilth. They are aware of PO and already planning for it. The organization and infrastructure for a positive Oregon is here. Unfortunately, it will take a lot of hardship for people to grasp on to it and do the right thing.

I think a lot of Oregon will be come new Ghost towns. There are so many VERY isolated areas that totally depend on lots of cheap gas to survive.

As for the schools, I have 2 kids in the PPS system. It's scary and fills me with rage how many cuts we've had to go through. I'll admit, however, that I don't ever see it getting better. Parental involvement is very high and that is what is keeping the schools afloat. Have you considered lending a hand at your local school?

Anyway, great post. Let's not shoot eachother when TSHTF. Let's go for a bike ride down the deserted streets instead. Dinner at my place!

-Ian

[Keith_McClary]

I wish we had some Scenarios from the cornucopians about how we will squeeze out more oil or find replacements. I mean QUANTITATIVE scenarios, not hand-waving pie-in-the-sky.

[CoronaWithLime]

I live and attend a University in south Georgia and there is very fertile ground here. Although I think this "think yellow" is a bunch of BS, on a small scale I could see it happening. Soy Beans and Tobacco are a big thing around here so atleast for local use I can see this area as being able to produce biodiesal and having a commodity for trade.

I can definatly see the city of atlanta having some issues due to population issues, but then again, it is set up very "Mass Transit Friendly"(MTF). My sister and I took the train to her office this past weekend and then walked for lunch a few blocks.

Areas such as Savannah might be OK, but it will really depend on the community as a whole and their willingness to adapt. Do you let the poor and elderly die to help the ones with a better chance or do you lower everyone's standards to the point to possible riot and mass violence and even mass death. I for one vote that we let nature take it's course and not let our government do undue hardship on society as a whole by providing for those who can not provide for themselves(WTSHTF that is). This has been coming for a while now...

[0mar]

Soy and Corn are among the worst biofuel crops. They are either SLIGHTLY energy positive or energy negative.

The reason we use them is because they have asset inertia. There are a whole of farmers out there with congressmen/senators backing them. Any sensible policy would use better crops like Jatropha and other palm/tropical plants.

[ab0di]

The Global Scenario Group has some interesting scenarios.

"The Global Scenario Group was convened in 1995 by the Stockholm Environment Institute to engage a distinguished and diverse international group in an examination of the prospects for world development in the twenty-first century. Numerous studies at global, regional, and national levels have relied on the Group’s scenario framework and quantitative analysis."

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', '
')
As for the schools, I have 2 kids in the PPS system. It's scary and fills me with rage how many cuts we've had to go through. I'll admit, however, that I don't ever see it getting better. Parental involvement is very high and that is what is keeping the schools afloat. Have you considered lending a hand at your local school?

[cube]

When gasoline prices double within 7 years something tells me bleeding heart liberals will all of a sudden turn into republicans. There will be no red state vs. blue state. Liberalism will be dead. BTW an argument can be said it's already happening. Have you noticed that the "liberal" democrats these days aren't spending that much time talking about social welfare? Hillary Clinton (the war goddess) and her "tough talk" about how we need to sacrifice more of our citizens for cannon fodder in Iraq....makes Ronald Reagan look like an isolationist pacifist back in his Iran Contra days.

Another near term prediction:
I think a lot of people will be moving out of California in search for a cheaper place to live... not just California but in general any place that's expensive whether Tokyo or New York will most likely see a population reduction.

There will also be a massive shift in loyalty. One of the most potent forces during the 20th century was nationalism...the idea of giving loyalty to your nation. Once PO hits I think that idea will die. People will think of themselves as global citizens and have no loyalty to any nation. No longer will people say, "My name is John Smith and I'm an American."

Instead it will be, "My name is John Smith and I'm here to look after my own ass. If that means I have to put my savings in a Swiss bank, live in the United Arab Emirites and work for a French company B/C that just happens to be the most economically advantageous thing to do then so be it."

[thuja]

Actually cube, I think that most people won't see themselves as global citizens but as intensely local citizens. The average Joe wont have money tied up in swiss bank accounts. They will be focussed on a neighborhood level to access enough resources for survival. In the long term and in many parts of the world, this could lead to mini-scale factional fighting along ethnic, class and religious lines as we're seeing in Iraq and have seen in Beirut before. A global identity for most will be lost in the generations to come.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'A')ctually cube, I think that most people won't see themselves as global citizens but as intensely local citizens.

[grabby]

Whales or seals have a much higher fat content than corn.

but there are only so many whales and seals.

but..

same with corn, you can only get so many crops of corn from an acre then the land is stale.

hey come to think of it, same thing with seed crops and palm trees and nuts and...

hey why not just switch to bicycles.

[thuja]

Veering just a little bit off the main thought of this thread. Again, this is a place for specific time-based post-peak scenarios related to particular areas of the world. PLease feel free to input if you have some ideas there. Thanks.

[alecifel]

Oklahoma City: 2010

I think the peak is a couple of years out. There's about to be a mad rush to bring some known smaller fields on line, but they'll peter out in about 18 months. Then the pooh's going in the windmill.

Oklahoma, and probably a lot of other central western states, is blessed (if you could call it a blessing) with being somewhat economically blighted to begin with. Our oil-based economy was killed by the petro-politics of the 80's and never really recovered. Geographically speaking, our major cities (both of less than a million each) only sprawl so far.. Tulsa's "outer suburbs" are 15 miles from downtown. Being endowed as we are with fairly plentiful natural gas and considerable remaining oil fields, we'll be able to either exchange those resources for cash, or hold on to a share of them to extend our ability to operate for a year or so.

Oklahoma has a large electrical energy surplus, selling 40% of our generation to out of state users. Again, we have plenty of natural gas to keep them running for some time.

My scenario for this area goes like this:

2007-2010: Pre-peak period

Fuel prices inching upwards cause an inflationary bubble that slows housing sales and reduces average sale price. Devaluation of real estate begins to eat into property tax revenues, which when combined with rising fuel prices, places hardships on school districts, fire departments and police departments. Maintenance of infrastructure such as roads, sewer and water lines, and electrical transmission lines is cut by about 5% per year, leading to a reduced level of service in a couple of years.

With the constriction of municipal budgets, entity spending on expansion projects is halted. This will kill the commercial construction (bid market) industry, turning approximately 1.5% of the population to Unemployment. Likewise, the housing slump has rendered the 1% of the population that builds houses for a living out of work. The loss of this sector spirals through the entire chain of supply, which by the time it reaches manufacture of tools and materials, employs 14% of our population. Once this industry collapses (all construction is predicated on growth), other sectors are to follow.

My future unemployment numbers look like this (an uneducated but intuitive guess, if you will)

'06: 4% - '07: 4.5% - '08: 5.5% - '09: 8% - '10: 14% - '11: 15% - '12: 16%

I think job loss will level out around the peak period, maybe even reverse for a little while, as huge numbers of displaced workers are recruited to attempt to ramp up biofuel production and other alternative energies.

After 2010? I won't make any projections that weren't outlined in the outstanding Portland scenario that opened this post. I will say that Oklahomans are a resilient (and somewhat backwards) lot who are not far removed from their pioneer roots. If we have to move back into soddies and start all over, so be it. We have a lot of people here who know still how to grow food without a tractor, to shape scrap metal into tools on an anvil, and to "make do" with what they have.

I will predict that by 2030 America will be back to the way it was in the sustainable period between the Civil War and the Roaring 20's (much like the roaring 90's): 8 miles or less to town, by wagon or horse; once you get to town, you hop a train to the next town. Those trains may be powered by biodiesel, or more likely, concentrated biomass fueling steam boilers. 35% of our population will be farming. 40% will be involved in making things of value (smiths, carpenters, etc.), 15% will be in financial services and advertising, 5% will be in religion, charity, entertainment and leisure, and the other 5% will be the lazies at the very top and the very bottom who do nothing. (Don't kid yourself. You will NEVER get rid of this 5%, although the faces will rotate in and out of that number rapidly.)

The large urban areas will be a checkerboard. You'll have your "new urbanist" areas like Mesta Park in OKC turning more self sufficient while the vast spreads of lower-income slums (Del City, Bethany, Warr Acres, and the Southside) cannibalize the vacated commercial districts until they are absorbed, one person at a time, into the new communities and rural neighborhoods as they get fed up, or are naturally liquidated by gang activity, malnutrition, drugs, disease and domestic violence (attrition).

Me? I'm working 4 acres of woodland.. the only mortgage is on the land (I'm PRAYING for hyperinflation.) and building my house 1 board at a time as I have the pocket money to get it. I'm off the main roads but within 5 miles of 3 workable small towns. I have plentiful water, plentiful wood for charcoaling (capturing the driven off gases to keep from smogging my air) and fertile humus 9 inches deep on top of rich sandy loam where anything will grow.

I love it out here!

N.J. Allen
Luther, OK USA
carpenter, blacksmith, philosopher and farmer.

[abelardlindsay]

I think the best way to get ideas for what peak oil is going to be like is to look at poor countries in Central America and Africa. They are the ones who feel the most severe ramifications of peak oil the earliest. I think Zimbabwe is a good example, being the first country to stop importing oil. If you look at what's happening there it's not the "revolution/crime" scenario everyone is predicting. I think of it more of what happens after a city is bombed. I don't particularly think that crime will go up because the criminals won't be able to get to the suburbs or much of anywhere and they will be exhausted and disorganized because of lack of food. Stalin didn't have a revolt when he deliberately starved several million Ukranians to death. People who are starving are the most pathetic bunch of people you've ever seen. Somehow everyone thinks they'll have manic energy to go on big crime sprees but that's not going to happen. There won't be a lot of food to steal nearby, there will be a bunch of boarded up empty supermarkets after the first wave of looting, never to reopen and the people in these areas will strike out to wherever there's food in a kind of trail of tears scenario. I think there will be a lot of people that will be totally dazed and bewildered walking around grumbling under there breath just trying to survive.

If there's anything positive I see it's that something like Israeli Kibutzes might come into vogue again. People will go and live on farms and have centralized access to electrical services/internet, etc. Think of it like Farm Condos. Watch for the big upsurge of god fearing christianity/clan like family loyalties to enforce order, etc. I expect racial tensions to explode as people start to have lots of "who's going to get thrown out of the lifeboat first" situations on a more frequent basis. I still think electricity will be around and some oil and gas but society will become less individualistic. We'll still have the internet and what not. I think that developing countries will fare fare worse than the U.S. The whole "further to fall" thing is B.S. The life expectancy at the turn of the century in Angola was 25. In Britian it was 65.

[nocar]

Well, I have more optimist view. We will have some years to adapt.

During WWII, Sweden was cut off from oil import (and had/has none domestic). Granted, we hade just a few cars before that. But things ran along quite nicely with bicycles and electric trains (hydro).
And that was a sudden stop of imports.

When people really understand the problem, and governments really govern, societies can manage.

Zimbabwe has a crazy ruler.

nocar

[alecifel]

Yea, I don't buy the "further to fall" argument either. We're going to go back to an older way of doing things, after a long struggle. I hear people talking around here about hoarding food and bottled water. Nonsense. America has the benefit of being the wealthiest country in the world and a nation that is in possession of so many untapped resources -- untapped because of our hectic and busy lifestyles, and our trade connections, because it was cheaper at the time to import than to use up our own resources.

Two thirds of Africa is going to go the way of Sudan, Kenya, and Zimbabwe. Half of the continent's population will die. Don't even second guess that prediction. Africa is where the "die off" is going to happen.

Southeast Asia is going to be the next victim of Peak Oil. Basically look around, anywhere where people sit under tents and push their little ones out in front of every western camera that passes by, telling them to look sad, that's where Peak Energy is going to claim lives. Unfortunate, but that's how nature works. This is what Greenspan called a "disruptive correction". The condition being corrected is the mentality of "Well, it's no use farming because we don't know how. Lets go in the hut and make some babies instead -- the West has plenty to give us."

America, and Western Europe, will survive Peak Oil, and then there WILL be enough oil to go around.

[Dan1195]

First off, I believe that we are currently in the "plateau" and will be for next few years, possibly until 2010, during this period oil prices will have mini-shocks and retreats (I expect a retreat to $60 maybe even $55 (but unlikely) soon, while continuing a long term increase. I only forsee an actual peak before 2009 if Saudi Arabia is unable to keep up production.

During this this time the countries that cannot afford it, i.e. Africa, will get squeezed out while the US, China etc may suffer to an exteny economically but will manage. as they grab the meager addtional supplies that appear on the market.

Beyond 2010 is where I really forsee problems, when ecomonies are unable to grow at all forcing depressions and recessions.

When the peak actually occurs will depend on when major players like Russia and Saudi start to decline. as the amount of oil from new projects until 2010 is fairly well known. While Light Sweet may have already peaked, "true peak" thats, peak of all fuels that can be turned into Gasoline, is most likely a few years away.

I am believing more and more in the "slow deterioration" scenario. with short term shocks always possible.

[Cabrone]

My prediction for the UK is:

Between 2006 and 2011 the oil price will continue to rise with increasingly frequent spikes and dips amidst the general upward movement. At some stage the energy markets will realise that the oil era is truly over and there will be a big jump in prices. By 2011 oil will be $400+ a barrel. Government will increasingly entice the public through grants to put in place systems that increase domestic energy efficiency and wind turbines will become a ususal sight on peoples roofs. There will be a global shortage of silicone for panels, thin film photovoltaics being used instead.

By 2011 there will be a return to world war 2 type living. Most people will not be able to run their cars and for trips outside the immediate area public transport will be used. Locally people will cycle and walk. Government will issue coupons to ration food and power. Globalisation will collapse like the house of cards that it is and neighbours will become the people that you rely on, not people in a factory on the other side of the planet. Commerce will become far more localised. Increasingly services and skills will be traded for goods, money will still be of value but with diminished status. International travel plus what is left of the global economy will be conducted via the sea.

During the summer months people will use all available space to grow their own food and in the winter heated local community centres will be used to keep people warm. Any precious fuel will be used to keep vital services and power construction projects up and running.

Occasional luxuries will be things to be treasured and thoughts will concentrate on the real things that matter, food, water, shelter and people. Crime will reduce as people come together and inequalities are levelled out. The fabric of society will survive and as people get used to the new state of affairs social capital will actually increase.

From 2016 onwards things will slowly improve as renewables and nuclear stations start making a difference. Global trading will increase, new fuel types and electric cars will mean that personal transportation will slowly become available again. Society however will have changed for good and for the better.

[Leaf21]

The UK
2006-2011- Mainly higher everything inflation real terms in the teens. North Sea NG helps the winters. Come 2010 Crude at 140 a bbl...Bankruptcies and home loss-job loss are big issues, Stock Markets in London will crash in this time frame..probably around 110 USD oil.
2012-2020- Depression, serve energy crisis, civil strife in cities by 3rd worlders, shortages,rations, government collpase, economic collapse, Pound hyper inflated, black outs, job loss over 65%, farmers- workers strike all over, trucker strikes..food in short supply confused masses unable to cope, .
2020-2030- UK breaking apart, anarchy in many places, serve food shortage-famine, energy grind collapse, oil unavalibe for most, extreme harsh winters, farmers only taking care of their kin, the die off begins
Why paint it rosy it is very clear where the UK is heading..Read Tantier and Catton for more details..When Oldovia comes the cliff is steep and fast. Thier will not be eclectic cars, and those who have solar panels on their rooftops will likely freeze to death in the winter while they starve, or be looted.
Yes, the interesting thing is that very few in Britland are concerned about Peak
Oil. Thus it will hit them like a meteorite from outer space. Given the
fact that they have virtually no land, we can expect a kind of “Irish
famine” in greatly magnified form on the islet.

[thuja]

Ok thanks for input so far- please no trashing of other people's scenarios. That's for a different forum. You may respectfully disagree while presenting your scenario but the cornucopian vs. doomer debates go elsewhere. Just present the scenario directly and simply using the guidelines I presented in the first post. Thanks.