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Brrrrr....

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Brrrrr....

Unread postby spot5050 » Thu 05 Jan 2006, 19:58:45

When is peak gas predicted for?

(I'm in Europe)
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Re: Brrrrr....

Unread postby cynthia » Thu 05 Jan 2006, 22:37:01

looking in the rearview mirror and... prediction hazy.
Sorry!
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Re: Brrrrr....

Unread postby Micki » Fri 06 Jan 2006, 01:07:57

You can probably find an estimate peak date for gas in tha ASPO figures (www.peakoil.net). Going from memory it should be sometimes round 2020.

My understanding is however that one issue with gas is that it is not as easy/cheap to transport via ship as for instance oil becasue it needs to be converted to liquidid and then back to gas again.
So gas issues may arise in local areas even if peak extraction hasn't been reached.
i.e. most of Europe should be OK as long as Russia provides gas through pipe, but US for instance needs to ship in whan ever they can't produce locally or get from Canada and this will further drive up costs.
GB I guess needs to import liquified gas as I guess there isn't any pipe line across the channel.

Furthermore, as Oil goes up in price, more countries are looking to diversify into amongst other gas.
This conversion may result in earlier gas peak date and higer costs along the way.


Did I get it right? Anyone who knows more about this?
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Re: Brrrrr....

Unread postby waegari » Fri 06 Jan 2006, 07:13:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'M')y understanding is however that one issue with gas is that it is not as easy/cheap to transport via ship as for instance oil becasue it needs to be converted to liquidid and then back to gas again.


Worse: when oil prices keep going up, shipping costs for LNG will also go up.
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Re: Brrrrr....

Unread postby Doly » Fri 06 Jan 2006, 09:26:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('waegari', '
')Worse: when oil prices keep going up, shipping costs for LNG will also go up.


I don't think shipping costs are much of an issue here. They are just a tiny fraction of the cost of gas. But leaks, for example, could be an issue.
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Re: Brrrrr....

Unread postby Andrew_S » Fri 06 Jan 2006, 13:27:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '
')GB I guess needs to import liquified gas as I guess there isn't any pipe line across the channel.



There is one natural gas pipeline between Holland and East Anglia (was for exports now for imports). Another pipe from Norway to the UK is being built.

The potential problems for the UK this winter seem to be because UK gas decline is faster than they anticipated and the extra infrastructure for imports is not fully in place.

There's a LNG terminal in North Kent now operable.
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