[pedalling_faster]

watching the response to H. Katrina - Saudi Arabia offering the U.S. sour heavy crude that is good for making - asphalt !

reading about the North Sea - 8% decline.

ditto for Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, and, is it "Burgan", in Kuwait ?

listening to Oilcast #28, the interview with a senior Pemex engineer. Mexico's Ghawar - on the decline.

Given that -
1. the "cavalry" - the country that's supposed to come to our rescue when we run low on oil - Saudi Arabia - did not come to our rescue after Katrina
2. every major oil field I have read about is on the decline

... I have the feeling that we have passed the peak.

I don't mean, just because Deffeyes picked Thanksgiving 2005.

I mean, aren't the signs pointing to us being - PAST the peak ? (of worldwide oil production, that is)

[bartholland]

We are still in a period in which factors like weather, polical unrest, hurricanes, etc.., influences the price of a barrel for a relative big part.

My guess is that once we're past the peak even those factors make little difference to an already exploded price.

[Flow]

BTW, you can use Heavy Oil for more than Asphalt. You can make everything out of Heavy Oil that you can make out of conventional oil, it just needs to be processed more and 75% of the US refineries are capable of processing Heavy Oils. The price of gas at the pumps to process Heavy Oil would go up between $0.20-0.50 a gallon (not a lot).

One other thing with regards to Heavy Oil, between Venezela and Russia there is around 2-4 trillion barrels of Heavy Oil.

Translation, Peak Oil has not happened.

[Flow]

This chart says it all I think!

[MicroHydro]

I believe the peak (of refinery grade petroleum) was summer 2004, before Ivan. Tanker counts suggest this. Increases in LPG have masked this, plus demand destruction in 3rd world countries. Prices are down because the USA and its satellite, Japan, are still pumping out reserves. That can't go on forever, a matter of months at most.

[lateStarter]

Flow,

I'm sure in the next few/several years all that tar-sand in Canada will start to look like the answer to continuing the horrific way of life in the US that everyone else only dreams about or is just starting to get a taste of. I have to confess, that I too have been guilty of indulging in it in the past.

However, from what I understand, it requires enormous amounts of NG to keep the ball rolling (I know there has also been talk of building Nuclear onsite) and NG may be in crisis sooner than oil in NA. As development builds and demand increases, I think Canada better get ready for lots of unemployed US citizens looking for work. I can't even imagine what the area will look like in 10 years. I picture tens of thousands of workers living in barrack style housing, laboring in the mines (3 shifts, 24/7), a raped landscape, and a few very wealthy 'moguls' that fly over the area from time to time in their helicopters drinking champagne. For a few more years it will be lucrative for a few, and provide a living for a few more.

I just hope the facade can continue for a few more years while I make my own plans for living long enough to watch it all collapse. I am not wishing this on anyone, but in some perverse way, I just want to stay around long enough to see how it all plays out.

[RonMN]

I think another warning sign could be what's happened to the price of gold in the last 2 weeks...keep your eye on it.

[AirlinePilot]

Flow,

Fancy chart! What you are not seeing is what will the ACTUAL RECOVERY of those 5.4trillion barrels ESTIMATE really be? I'll say it again, you are right in pointing out that oilsands will play a part, but I respectfully disagree about them saving us from any peak. The only way I see that it could happen that way, was if they (SUNCOR et al) had begun massive development 15-20 years ago and had Nuclear on site NOW.

As I have said before, we are out of time. It just won't happen fast enough to matter.

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'F')low,

Fancy chart! What you are not seeing is what will the ACTUAL RECOVERY of those 5.4trillion barrels ESTIMATE really be? I'll say it again, you are right in pointing out that oilsands will play a part, but I respectfully disagree about them saving us from any peak. The only way I see that it could happen that way, was if they (SUNCOR et al) had begun massive development 15-20 years ago and had Nuclear on site NOW.

As I have said before, we are out of time. It just won't happen fast enough to matter.

[AirlinePilot]

Flow,

Chill my good man, no need to shout. I respect your opinion, I truly do. While I dont claim to be an expert, I have spent the better part of a year now studying this rather closely. There are very few experts here on either side of the fence. I do think there are some rather intelligent folks here who aren't afraid to see through the day to day bullshit though.

My take on what is going on is that the likelyhood of the qauntities of oil that are claimed is probably not correct and its not to the good side of the balance sheet. Your claim above has as much optimism for recovery of oilsands as my pessimism for how much time we have to get it going. I wont challenge your expertise as I assume you are just as capable as I to research and find data. Your conclusions are only supported if you take everyones word for whats in the ground and follow what can only be described as a very optimistic rate of development and production. Suffice it to say I dont share that optimism due to the realities of how we find and exploit these resources.

The numbers you give above cannot be supported by current mining operations and in order to get there some things have to change in a rather big way. I can think of several right off the bat

1. Infrastructure is not in place to get anywhere near meaningful production amounts on a monhtly or weekly basis.

2. Technology is still a barrier to EFFICIENT processing of the sands.

3. Environmental issues are going to be huge (actually they already are)

4. North America is reaching a critical, almost crisis situation with NG

I happen to have a brother who is involved in some of the actual site prep and impact study and his outlook while optimistic doesn't point to these tar sands being the panacea a lot of folks think they are.

Time is going to be critical I think and I hope we have enough, but the bottom line is that by watching the political rhetoric, studying current and future demand levels and weighing those with how much oil we have (and have discovered) I dont see how you can come up with a premise where we are not in some rather dire trouble fairly soon.

I say that because I dont see a trend away from consumption of what is going to be a finite resource. I dont claim to know when and in what form the troubles will be, but I would hazard a guess its within the next 2-5 years. Just my thoughts based on a lot more evidence than whats available here. Take it or leave it for what you will, just dont scream at others who might have a different take.

[The_Toecutter]

Yay. Lets turn Alberta into a toxic wasteland.

[creg]

I think we are at peak. Two reasons: The Oil Drum adds all the tech data available-is primarily a site with engineers- and they seem to conclude we are at that plateau. The second reason is that the metacommunication from Saudi Arabia and OPEC ( watching what they are doing and reading between the lines) is consistent that they are at peak( over the last 6 mos)
The Oil Drum also seems to conclude that the initial depletion will be 2 or 3 % for a decade or more. (see Stuart Saniford's Slow Squeeze and re peak, Who will save us from Peak).
So I am concerned peak will look like it is due to something other than geology, like they just like pumping less raising prices,etc. This would allow for lots conspiracy/blame etc., possibly use to justify military action.

[DigitalCubano]

At the risk of drawing the ire of everyone, I am becoming more convinced that peak is something on the order of at least a decade away. I still think it's an important issue, but am becoming increasingly skeptical that it's an impending crisis. However, I think it is likely that the confluence of several factors over the next year might provide more momentum for a change in US energy "policy."

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'A')t the risk of drawing the ire of everyone, I am becoming more convinced that peak is something on the order of at least a decade away. I still think it's an important issue, but am becoming increasingly skeptical that it's an impending crisis. However, I think it is likely that the confluence of several factors over the next year might provide more momentum for a change in US energy "policy."

[DigitalCubano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'P')ost this again after reading thru the depletion modeling forum, the oil drum & the Disputing Peak Oil - Mike Lynch thread.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'P')ost this again after reading thru the depletion modeling forum, the oil drum & the Disputing Peak Oil - Mike Lynch thread.

[grabby]

I don't know what to say...

I feel like the coyote when he looks up and notices the anvil...

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', ' ')

I just hope the facade can continue for a few more years while I make my own plans for living long enough to watch it all collapse. I am not wishing this on anyone, but in some perverse way, I just want to stay around long enough to see how it all plays out.

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'A')t the risk of drawing the ire of everyone, I am becoming more convinced that peak is something on the order of at least a decade away. I still think it's an important issue, but am becoming increasingly skeptical that it's an impending crisis. However, I think it is likely that the confluence of several factors over the next year might provide more momentum for a change in US energy "policy."