[seldom_seen]

sorry if I missed a thread on this but: Cantarell to decline by 6% in 2006.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')emex's Cantarell offshore oil field, which accounts for about 60 percent of oil production, is forecast to produce 1.9 million barrels a day in 2006, a 6 percent decline from 2.03 million barrels a day so far in 2005, Pemex said in an e-mailed statement.
Article

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'H')ere's something intersting. Jerome Corsi, a tireless hero who is spreading the important message of abiotic oil to the world, says that cantarell was created by an asteroid hitting the earth and poking a hole in the earth's skin where the oil spilled out and created Cantarell.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roponents of the abiotic, deep-earth theory of the origin of oil argue that the deep fracturing of the basement bedrock at Cantarell caused by the meteor's impact was responsible for allowing oil formed in the Earth's mantle to seep into the sedimentary rock that settled in the huge underwater crater.Article

[RockHind]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'S')o the Alvarex brothers lived in the last part of the Mesozoic era? Come on guys, learn some critical thinking, or just some plain English usage.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'H')ere's something intersting. Jerome Corsi, a tireless hero who is spreading the important message of abiotic oil to the world, says that cantarell was created by an asteroid hitting the earth and poking a hole in the earth's skin where the oil spilled out and created Cantarell.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roponents of the abiotic, deep-earth theory of the origin of oil argue that the deep fracturing of the basement bedrock at Cantarell caused by the meteor's impact was responsible for allowing oil formed in the Earth's mantle to seep into the sedimentary rock that settled in the huge underwater crater. Article

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'S')o, we better start checking out all the impact craters. We've got lots here in Canada, hell there should be billions of gallons under Sudbury.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'C')antarell to decline by 6% in 2006.

[peaker_2005]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'C')antarell to decline by 6% in 2006.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'C')antarell to decline by 6% in 2006.

[DantesPeak]

No surprise to PO.com readers, but main stream media is catching on to the fact that PO production has passed in some major oil exporters: Mexico's Oil Output May Decline Sharply Paid subscription may be required
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')EXICO CITY – Mexico's huge state-owned oil company may be facing a steep decline in output that would further tighten global oil supply and add to global woes over high oil prices.
The potential decline faced by Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, also could undermine U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on Middle East oil, and complicate Mexican politics and financial stability.
An internal study reviewed by The Wall Street Journal shows water and gas are encroaching more quickly than expected in Cantarell, Mexico's biggest oil field, and might cause output to drop precipitously over the next few years. Currently, Cantarell produces two million barrels of oil a day, or six of every 10 barrels produced by Mexico. It is the world's second-biggest-producing field after Saudi Arabia's Ghawar.
The worst two scenarios suggest a drastic decline in output to 875,000 barrels a day by the end of 2007 and to just 520,000 a day by the end of 2008. If such projections turn out to be correct, Mexico's overall oil exports would decline by about one million barrels a day -- equal to about 63% of its daily crude exports to the U.S. -- from its current 1.8 million.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'G')hawar left to go.

[Starvid]

Oh well.

Burgan and Cantarell and Samotlor are down or have just started sliding.

Ghawar left to go.

[pedalling_faster]

Oil Cast & Adam Porter Oilcast #28, he interviews a senior Pemex engineer about this very subject.

[DantesPeak]

The Wall Street Journal story appears to be related to this report (which unfortunately I can't find online): Excerpt:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')/17/06 Latin Am. Mex. & NAFTA Rep. (Pg. Unavail. Online)
2006 WLNR 1040889 Mexico & NAFTA Report Copyright 2006 Latin American Newsletters 17 Jan 2006

THE OIL INDUSTRY: Boom to bust?
The next government will have to make some difficult decisions about the oil industry. The decline in the country's main oilfield, Cantarell, is much more rapid than had been forecast. Under current projections, in 2008, the field will be producing only a quarter of what it has been producing over the past five years.

Over the past 20 years, Cantarell has been the world's fourth biggest oil field, producing over 2m bpd. Cantarell has supplied around two-thirds of the daily production of Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil monopoly. Mexico is the world's sixth biggest oil producer. The problem is that it is producing much more oil than it is finding. Ranked by reserves, Mexico comes 14th in the world league.

The latest projection from Petroleos Mexicanos Exploracion y Produccion is that in 2008 Cantarell's production will average only 700,000bpd while in 2009 output will drop to 520,000bpd. The concern for policymakers is that if this happens, Mexico will stop being an oil exporter. Currently the country produces about 3.3m bpd and exports about 1.8m bpd.

There are major differences between experts about how much oil Mexico has. What experts do agree on is that production from Cantarell is set to plummet. The big question is whether Mexico can find new oil reserves to stop its overall production collapsing. If Mexico's overall production collapses there will be major implications for government spending. In 2005 the government enjoyed windfall oil revenues of M$100bn (US$10bn), according to Alejandro Werner, head of the planning unit at the finance ministry.

[pedalling_faster]

25% ! ! ! (as in, 75% decline by 2008) my God. that's a lot of decline.
i'm wondering if there's any info on why so precipitous a decline. have they been using water injection, unusually aggressively over-pumping, are there geographic details, e.g. an oil pool geometry that offers minimal resistance to pumping, allowing the oil to be sucked out (sort of like natural gas), a "low-impedance" oil-well.

[cudabachi]

Yet another reason to chose Venezuela as your post-PeakOil home.

[shakespear1]

This is serious. If this story has seen the daylight than they must know that they have a major problem on their hands. To slow the water you can will need to reduce rates and/or the interval from where you produce. Also shutting in wells may help. In a nut shell, You Will Need to Lower the Production Rates !!!

[DantesPeak]

Check this out "Ghawar - possibly declining" !!!

[cudabachi]

When I worked in the S. Mexican oil market (onshore) back in the late 90's, I seem to remember that Pemex was building a huge nitrogen injection project for the Canterell field. I found that odd that since it had been my personal experience that nitrogen was typically one of the worst 'contaminants' that could be injected into a pressurized hydrocarbon system......CO2 yes, but N2? No. Anyway, don't know what ever became of that project.

[Shadizar]

CNBC just did an interview with the author of the WSJ article. Not a bad interview, but they didn't talk about the steep rate of decline. The word is getting out, if slowly.

[cudabachi]

CNBC just finished interviewing a couple of Latin America energy analysts. One said that the leading candidate for President in July's election has said that he'll not change Mexico's long-standing policy of not allowing investment by foreign exploration and production companies.

Again, my experience in Mexico is somewhat dated, but I seem to recall that there was a move in that direction back in the late 90's when some foreign E & P companies were thinking that they'd be able to participate in some of the gas plays (like Burgos) along the border with Texas.

If Mexico has any 'elephants' left to discover, they're probably in deep water GOM, and I don't believe they've got the money, expertise, or desire to tackle those plays right now.

Though I could be wrong, often am.