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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Alarming insider memo

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Alarming insider report ...

Unread postby cube » Mon 29 Aug 2005, 17:59:55

I find it funny how people here are speaking of price swings between $50 and $100. Anybody who has gotten into commodity futures learns pretty quickly that even the smallest change in prices will have a big effect on profits or losses due to the extremely "leveraged" nature of this form of investing. For example contracts are sold in increments of 1000 barrels. So if a barrel of oil costs $68 you can get 1 contract for $6000. (actually the initial margin is less but you need a little extra money as a "cushion" against price swings).

Having said that a price swing of $1.20 ($1.20 * 1000 barrels) = $1200 profit or loss depending on what position you took (long or short) and the direction of price change (up or down). I've been "trading" for less then a month and "experience" (*cough*) has already taught me that $1.20 price swings happen almost everyday. $1.2 == $1200 per contract = 20% of a $6000 investment. Everynight before I go to bed I know that when I wake up tomorrow I may either win or lose 20% of my money. And remember $1.2 price change is "normal". Oddly enough I still manage to sleep fine at night.

Something tells me the average person would be tossing and turning all night long in their bed if they had an oil futures contract dangling over their head. :-D
cube
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Re: Alarming insider report ...

Unread postby azreal60 » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 10:30:25

RE Heinikin
I agree with you that there is definate proof of ethanols non sustainability.
I think the problem is people when they refer to biomass are often talking about widely different things. Bio Diesel, Ethanol, methane, these and more are often refered to by the same name of biomass.

Long and the short, coming from an area that is currently putting alot of industry into ethanol, your totally right, its energy negative and nothing more than a political play to please corn farmers.

Bio diesel seems to be a great idea, but no one other than willie neilson seems to be selling.....
Azreal60
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