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Two More Bank failures tonight!

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 00:34:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is you who are deceiving everyone, by telling everyone everything is on the verge of collapse, when it isn't.


Its not? Why did Paulson and Bernanke tell Congress they needed to bailout Bear Sterns to avoid a potential meltdown of the system?

Why did Paulson tell Congress we need to give him the taxpayers checkbook to bailout Freddie and Fannie?

Do I believe you or Paulson and Bernanke?

Just because some banks are failing and/or need to be bailed out, does not mean the economy is on the verge of collapse.

Was the economy on the verge of collapse in 1984 when Continental Illinois failed? Hardly. Or all those other S&L's in the late 80's?

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'N')ow, do I want to bet? Will you shake my hand in person on it?

Now, seeing that you're in Arkansas, and I'm in Seattle, I don't think shaking hands in person is very practical. But how about it, eh? I'll bet you $50 that the US economy will not shrink this year, as measured by year-end GDP.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby seahorse » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 00:49:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust because some banks are failing and/or need to be bailed out, does not mean the economy is on the verge of collapse.


The boys in charge disagree with you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')iven the exceptional pressures on the global economy and financial system, the damage caused by a default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain," Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee.


Bernanke Testimony

The doom also originates from Paulson who told Congress that shoring up Freddie and Fannie was necessary to protect against future systemic risk - ouch.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hird, to help protect the financial system from future systemic risk,


[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/secretary-paulsons-testimony-fannie-mae/story.aspx?guid={6C8CA322-E01E-4A28-AC1C-790DE369CC86}]News[/url]


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')as the economy on the verge of collapse in 1984 when Continental Illinois failed? Hardly. Or all those other S&L's in the late 80's?


Did Freddie and Fannie collapse back then? I forgot. It seems like that one fact makes things just a little different this time.
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 00:56:18

^
Oh the irony!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'Y')ou see, this is classic obfuscation by our man Oilfinder . . .

BTW, in case you didn't notice, when I talked about the doom prevalent on this forum I wasn't just referring to the current economic situation. I was referring to pretty much everything.

No bet, eh?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 01:18:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'A')lso yesplease, I said Tyler's figures of losses at $150 billion were too low and should be $400 billion, but, in defending Tyler, you link me to an article showing I was way too low. Your article estimates losses at $600 billion.
A $400 billion loan does not equate to a $400 billion loss, at least not w/o knowing what the future holds. My crystal ball is on the fritz but I guess yours is working fine.

Besides that, what are you talking about with "defending" Tyler? I'm not "defending" anyone, just pointing out that "loan" does not equal "loss". If it did, the entire U.S. banking systems has been incurring trillion dollar "losses" for years. :lol:

Aside from that, the article about trillions in losses you linked initially already stated that...$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o far the announced losses total $US480 billion.
Which, surprise surprise, is nearly what the article I linked predicted. Which, btw, isn't a yesplease article, but a Bloomberg article. However I'm happy to take the credit if you can't differentiate between the two. :P
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 02:12:45

^
1990 (or was it 1991?) was a recession year. Oil consumption - and thus, production - often declines during recessions. After the recession ended, consumption and production went back up.

The recession back then might have been caused in part by the bank failures, but the bank failures in and of themselves did not cause any oil production peak, that occurred because of a softening economy.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 03:51:27

Bank failures to surge in coming years.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t least 150 banks will fail in the U.S. during the next two to three years, according to a projection by Gerard Cassidy and his colleagues at RBC Capital Markets.

If the current economic slowdown deteriorates into a recession on the scale of those from the 1980s and early 1990's, the number of failures will be much higher this time around -- probably as high as 300 of them, by RBC's reckoning.
That's a massive surge compared to the recent boom years of the credit and real estate markets. From the second half of 2004 through end of 2006 there were 10 consecutive quarters without a bank failure in the U.S. -- a record length of time, Cassidy notes.


Image

How do the size of the bailouts of late compare to what keeled over in the S&L crisis? If we have to pay up for F&F, Wamu, and God knows how many regional banks, that's going to be a helluva tab to pick up. Oh, and GM, various major airlines...can we just let them get picked up for fire sale prices?
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby ThereWillBeMoreBlood » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 04:56:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'G')eez, I dunno SH, maybe we should stop feeding the troll.



[smilie=5blindfold.gif]


I've had him on ignore for months.


Gosh, you must really dislike his message if you have had him on ignore since before you even became a member.

Hard for me to understand why OilFinder gets so much flak for presenting a dissenting viewpoint on this website. Are the doomers so impressed with themselves that they can't stand an alternate viewpoint or what?
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 05:29:50

Seahorse insisting that loans=losses, and F&F=banks. Jotopay having OF on ignore for months, even though he hasn't been here for months. Honestly, I don't mean to be critical here, but it creates a bad impression... like you guys are just making stuff up.

Also, why don't you take up OF on his bet Seahorse?
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 05:32:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ThereWillBeMoreBlood', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'G')eez, I dunno SH, maybe we should stop feeding the troll. [smilie=5blindfold.gif]
I've had him on ignore for months.
Gosh, you must really dislike his message if you have had him on ignore since before you even became a member.
Hard for me to understand why OilFinder gets so much flak for presenting a dissenting viewpoint on this website. Are the doomers so impressed with themselves that they can't stand an alternate viewpoint or what?

While it did not deal with the issue at hand this thread gives a general idea about how the argument goes. And it goes around and around and around and...

If anyone finds an argument or perspective offered on the site onerous or distracting they are more than welcome to use the "ignore" button. Any one who has posted at any length or taken to a position with passion is probably on someone's ignore list.
Last edited by wisconsin_cur on Sat 26 Jul 2008, 06:15:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 06:01:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')eahorse insisting that loans=losses, and F&F=banks. Jotopay having OF on ignore for months, even though he hasn't been here for months. Honestly, I don't mean to be critical here, but it creates a bad impression... like you guys are just making stuff up.

Also, why don't you take up OF on his bet Seahorse?


Haha JD the jokes on you. I remember one of your posts from late last year talking about unimpeded economic growth.

Looks like things are getting a bit impeded, but I don't know these days just hang on to some statistic like oil has tumbled to $120 bbl and it's all blue sky.

Once PeakOil really starts hitting it's straps is going to be great to watch all the media spin on how good things.
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 06:10:00

IMO it's not the volume of bank failures it's the volume of loans as a percentage of GDP that fail that is the problem.

e.g. 50 banks fail with 2 million bad loans each

4 banks fail with 250 million bad loans each

Thats an order of magnitude difference between the two scenarios. (figures are for illustrative purposes only)
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby JohnDenver » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 06:23:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')eahorse insisting that loans=losses, and F&F=banks. Jotopay having OF on ignore for months, even though he hasn't been here for months. Honestly, I don't mean to be critical here, but it creates a bad impression... like you guys are just making stuff up.

Also, why don't you take up OF on his bet Seahorse?


Haha JD the jokes on you. I remember one of your posts from late last year talking about unimpeded economic growth.


Hmm... I notice that you don't provide a cite, so I guess the casual observer can wonder whether you're just fabricating facts like everybody else in this thread. :lol:

On the growth front, you apparently haven't been reading the news:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')MF hikes outlook for world economic growth
Indo Asian News Service
Friday, July 18, 2008 (Washington)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday revised upward its predictions for world economic growth for the remainder of the year, despite a slowdown that is expected to continue into 2009 and mounting inflation concerns.

Growth is predicted to be 4.1 per cent in 2008 down from five per cent in 2007, with growth continuing to slow to 3.9 per cent in 2009, the IMF's World Economic Outlook released in Washington on Thursday said.Link


Did you miss this nifty little graphic from the Oil Drum a couple of days ago?

Image
Peak Oil Debunked
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby tex123 » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 06:58:25

Excuse my ignorance but does anyone know where I could find information on the number of defaulted mortages? I find it hard to understand that there were so many individuals sucked in by greed that it has caused this bank failure nightmare.
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby ThereWillBeMoreBlood » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 08:18:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ThereWillBeMoreBlood', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'G')eez, I dunno SH, maybe we should stop feeding the troll. [smilie=5blindfold.gif]
I've had him on ignore for months.
Gosh, you must really dislike his message if you have had him on ignore since before you even became a member. Hard for me to understand why OilFinder gets so much flak for presenting a dissenting viewpoint on this website. Are the doomers so impressed with themselves that they can't stand an alternate viewpoint or what?
While it did not deal with the issue at hand this thread gives a general idea about how the argument goes. And it goes around and around and around and...
If anyone finds an argument or perspective offered on the site onerous or distracting they are more than welcome to use the "ignore" button. Any one who has posted at any length or taken to a position with passion is probably on someone's ignore list.

Thank you for the link. That is an interesting thread and I enjoy reading all the opinions. Yet, you are correct in that the argument truly does go around and around, never reaching a definitive point.

Maybe I just sympathize with cornucopian ideas, but the lack of respect shown for OF and the tendency of some of his counterparts to behave like complete jerkoffs really makes me question whether I should listen to the doomer rhetoric. Frankly I don't quite understand why OF bothers to put up with it. Aside from him and a few others, most people on this board seem to be of the belief that the world is ending within the hour and we might as well start drinking hemlock (or, of course, run off to our doomsteads - a lot of good that will do us). I guess I just think it would be nicer if cornucopian types didn't have to face attacks from all sides when they post here.

tex123, there is a wikipedia page on the subprime mortgage crisis that probably has some of the numbers, but it's a bear to go through. I did notice up top that it stated there were 1.3 million foreclosures in 2007. Some other posters can probably help you better than I can.

Oops, here is the address: crisis
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 08:40:24

CNN, on this story, says that the banks will reopen Monday as part of the 'Mutual of Omaha Bank.'
Edited to fix order of bank's name.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sat 26 Jul 2008, 09:01:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 08:44:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ThereWillBeMoreBlood', 'M')aybe I just sympathize with cornucopian ideas, but the lack of respect shown for OF and the tendency of some of his counterparts to behave like complete jerkoffs really makes me question whether I should listen to the doomer rhetoric.

You should not listen to it. Both extremes are completely nuts and have their fair share of asses. Make up your own mind and keep an equal opportunity ignore list. :)
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 11:03:29

OilFinder2 said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his won't be the first time a bunch of banks have failed. And it won't be the last, either. Oh well.


In the last eight years 30 banks have failed in the US. Three of these have failed in the last two weeks.

The US banking and financial system is looking at $1.6 trillion in losses from depreciating residential housing, on top of the $400 million that has already occurred and been absorbed. Losses on commercial loans and corporate paper are just beginning to develop, and could well top $2 trillion. Besides that, this mess is leveraged 30:1.

This is not a matter of a “bunch of banks” failing, this is a matter of hundreds, if not thousands of banks failing. This is a matter of the monetary systems of the world failing.

“And it won't be the last”; you probably won’t live long enough to see the last of this.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n an interview with RTT News, Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business at NYU's Stern School of Business and Chairman of RGE Monitor stresses that we are in the middle of a "severe recession that is deepening" and will cause "at least a couple hundred small banks," to go "belly up," a third of regional banks to be in "severe trouble" and "at least a couple" major national banks to become "insolvent." Roubini says there is "no doubt" that the FDIC's reserve will be "drained 100-percent" and stresses that there is "nothing that can be done" to prevent this financial crisis and recession.

In addition, Roubini predicts that Lehman Brothers "won't be able to survive" as an independent broker dealer.

Never in history have we seen a defaulting debt load of this magnitude, with this kind of leverage, and with a $1000 trillion derivatives market that will create a total world wide melt down when it implodes. This can not be compared to the S&L Crisis, the Asian Contagion or any other financial crisis in modern history. It is many, many magnitudes of order larger. Comparing past crisis to the one now developing, would be like comparing a flea to a bull elephant!

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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby cube » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 11:27:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'G')eez, I dunno SH, maybe we should stop feeding the troll. [smilie=5blindfold.gif]

I've had him on ignore for months.
you mean OF2 yeah same here.
the *ignore button* comes in handy
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby DoubleD » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 11:56:23

Ignore works beautifully - except when those of you who "play" the game keep quoting the person I have on ignore. Then I am subjected to seeing the posts despite my attempts to properly ignore it completely.

Do we always have to quote everyone's entire posts before responding? If I want to I can scroll up a page and look at a prior post... just quote the portion you are needed to refer to and not the whole dang thing.
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Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 26 Jul 2008, 13:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'N')ever in history have we seen a defaulting debt load of this magnitude, with this kind of leverage, and with a $1000 trillion derivatives market that will create a total world wide melt down when it implodes. This can not be compared to the S&L Crisis, the Asian Contagion or any other financial crisis in modern history. It is many, many magnitudes of order larger. Comparing past crisis to the one now developing, would be like comparing a flea to a bull elephant!

Well done.
I am afraid any analogies to prior economic declines won't apply here. That's why we don't know exactly how this will turn out, but we can be sure the consequences will be bad for most everyone.
With the FDIC saying the assets of the last three failed banks are worth 30% less than book value, to say we have a 'problem' here would be the under-statement of the year. How much will banking assets be worth when the recession really gets going, or when interest rates start rising to finance the deficit Congress already estimates at $800 billion in the next year forward from now?
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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