[SoothSayer]

Hi,

I feel sure that someone, somewhere has written software which tracks oil & gas from cradle to grave, and which ties in population & economic projects, price/demand sensitivity etc.

Does anyone know of any publically available model or simulation (or derived data) which looks at the world's oil, gas & coal consumption, from geologic, infrastructure & economic viewpoints?

I assume such things exist - otherwise how can governments plan ahead?

[azreal60]

I think the key there is publicly available.

Also, when governments want to plan ahead, they have these little AI machines figure out where such things are going for them. They're called scientists, and the government employs alot of them. Most scientists would just use the hard data to write a report, not plug it into a propriatory software program when they would just need to go in and get the data for the report anyway.

[SoothSayer]

Hi azreal60

Good points.

Over the last decades we have all become "specialists" .... "generalists" are no longer appreciated.

However in a case like PO it's not enough to be a specialist in, say, "reserve growth" .... we need a "helicopter view" which links all aspects of consumption & production.

A top-level simulation is ideal because it can tie all the "specialist" topics together.

For example such a model might reveal useful data about the Alberta tar sands, by linking their production to natural gas usage, water usage, transport loading, staffing, "monster truck" availability etc.

The high level interactions between several "well known" systems can in fact be totally unexpected - and can catch us out.

Positive feedback loops can be especially worrying.

The availability of a high level model or simulation could make analysis of possible PO effects much more valid.

[bobbyald]

Try googling Club of Rome world model.

The original model was run in the 1970's but everything still looks on track. I have an old chart that I'll post when I find it.

From what I remember the "available resources" line falls like a rock from 1990-2020. Population peaks in about 2030. By 2070 the world looks extremely sick.

[bobbyald]

This has some charts at the bottom:

http://www.uiah.fi/projects/metodi/190.htm

[WebHubbleTelescope]

The only model that truly works from first principles is here:
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2006/0 ... d-gas.html

The first principles consist of (1) oil discoveries + (2) human greed. The algorithm amounts to pumping the sucker dry. It works remarkably well in modeling any peak at any scale, including resources such as natural gas.