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Peak Oil Is Coming, and We Must Prepare
A world of steadily declining oil resources is a challenge to all.BY ROSCOE G. BARTLETT
Are you comfortable that you understand oil and the central
role that it plays in your life and will play in the future of
your children?
It’s important to understand recent energy developments in the
context of the larger underlying problem of global peak oil. For our
national and economic security, the problem of peak oil requires us
to dramatically change America’s energy policies.
Consider some symptoms:
• Oil prices have increased more than 2.5 times since 2003.
• Oil prices spiked to $71 per barrel after Hurricane Katrina. Prices
increased to $73 per barrel after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned, “If you [the United States] make a wrong
move regarding Iran, definitely the energy flow in this region will
be seriously endangered.’’ Already, the price of oil reflects a $15-per-barrel security- risk premium because of limited spare capacity and the potential for supply disruptions, oil expert Daniel Yergin of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates said in May 4 testimony before the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
• The United States is addicted to oil, said President George W.
Bush in his 2006 State of the Union address. And as Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice told the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee on April 5, “Nothing has really taken me aback more as
secretary of state than the way that the politics of energy is . . .
warping diplomacy around the world. We have simply got to do
something about the warping now of diplomatic effort by the allout
rush for energy supply.’’
...
SPENDING OUR INHERITANCE
Both the United States and the world have grown dependent upon
oil. A September 2005 Army Corps of Engineers report, Energy
Trends and Their Implications, U.S. Army Installations, noted that
“Oil is the most important form of energy in the world today. . . .
Historically, no other energy source equals oil’s intrinsic qualities of
extractability, transportability, versatility, and cost.”
A Practice Focus We all benefit every day from oil. The energy density in one barrel of oil is the equivalent of 12 people working full time for one year. A barrel of oil yields 42 gallons of gasoline. Think about how far one gallon of gas takes your car. How long would it take you to pull your car that far?
America is like a young couple whose grandparents died and left a
big inheritance. The couple spend the money freely, become dependent upon it for their lifestyle, and then wake up one morning to discover that it’s running out. They have to do one of two things: spend less or make more. We have established a lifestyle where 85 percent of all our energy comes from fossil fuels, which will peak, run down, and then run out. Only 15 percent comes from other sources. A bit more than half of that 15 percent, 8 percent, comes from nuclear. Only 7 percent comes from true renewables, to which we will ultimately have to transition. The Army Corps of Engineers report noted that 70 percent of U.S. oil consumption is used in transportation. Oil is also a feedstock to other vital industries, including chemicals and pharmaceuticals— everything plastic. Peak oil will cause a liquid-fuel crisis because we can’t fill our gas tanks with and run our vehicles on coal, nuclear, wood, or wind.
A February 2005 report commissioned by the Department of
Energy, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and
Risk Management (known as the Hirsch report), warned, “Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.’’ It concluded that a crash program to produce liquid-fuel alternatives at the maximum feasible rate must start 20 years before peak to avoid significant supply shortages and unprecedented economic, social, and geopolitical challenges.
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A NEW POLICY
Current American energy policy is a recipe for catastrophe because
it is designed to fill what will be a growing gap between the amount
of oil we want to use and the decreasing supply that will be available as a result of peak oil.
We should recognize that it is futile to attempt to fill the gap with
more oil production or alternatives. To the extent that we fill the gap without reducing our oil consumption, we will deny our children and our grandchildren access to these finite energy sources. That is why I oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. If we pump ANWR tomorrow, what will we do the next day? Right now it’s like money in the bank collecting very high interest.
We should take steps to transition to a far more efficient and sustainable use of energy. First, and most urgent, we must raise awareness about the impending crisis from global peak oil. Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) and I have formed a Peak Oil Caucus in the House of Representatives to educate our colleagues and our country about global peak oil. Second, we have introduced H. Res. 507, a bill that states “The United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the ‘Man on the Moon’ project to address the inevitable challenges of ‘Peak Oil.’ ” In particular, an energy policy to address peak oil ought to consider these specific actions. Most urgently, we should develop contingency plans to deal with disruptions of the oil supply. In the short term, we should reduce energy consumption dramatically to save money, buy time, and free up energy to invest in alternatives. And in the long term, the world needs to move to reliance upon renewable sources of energy rather than fossil fuels.
If every American contributes to meeting the challenge of peak oil,
I am confident we will have a bright future.
Roscoe G. Bartlett (R-Md.) represents Maryland’s 6th
Congressional District. His Web site is
www.bartlett.house.gov.