by Jack » Thu 17 Mar 2005, 23:12:20
As a Republican of long-standing...yes, in general, today's Republican is less receptive to Peak Oil. So, that begs the question, why?
In general, and recognizing a certain amount of cognitive dissonance in what I'm about to say, Republicans have preferred less government control and more use of the free market. The belief the free market will automatically solve shortages and problems is deeply ingrained - perhaps because it has, historically, worked well.
Notice that, from a Republican perspective, Democrats and Progressives favor various control and distribution mechanisms, rationing, and price controls - all of which are anathema to Republican beliefs.
Now the problem with Peak Oil is that it is different. Normal market action may not (probably will not) solve the shortage. No matter how much effort is put forth, no matter how clever we are at substituting one resource (coal, nuclear, methyl hydrates) for another, it may not suffice. But this conflicts with a lifelong belief the market will solve everything; that belief is difficult to abandon.
And it gets worse. There is the endless refrain about taking some portion of the resources consumed by the rich (however defined) and rich countries (the U.S.) to help the poor and disadvantaged around the world. We've learned that what this means is that we have money and resources taken away from us - and, mostly, we don't like it. The argument that such sacrifices will make the world a better place doesn’t convince because we've heard it before, and it hasn't.
And, even worse...Republicans tend to be (and to see themselves as) patriotic and pro-U.S. A discussion of resources inevitably leads to the observation the U.S. consumes a lot, and this develops, almost without exception, into bashing of the U.S. If one has a positive view of one's country, this gets tedious. It can cause the entire message to be ignored.
By now, you see the problem. The proponents of limits to growth favor the things Republicans oppose, and criticize those positions Republicans admire and value. Keep in mind that a large house in the 'burbs with a pair of SUV's can represent waste - or, from a different perspective, the just reward for a lifetime of hard work and striving.
Now, we get into the controversial stuff. The fundamentalist Christian community has aligned itself with the Republican Party. This has had some interesting effects. On one hand, the Republican Party has, in essence, formed a majority coalition. On the other hand, some (not all - but some) of the fundamentalists have beliefs that are not founded on science. Yet, they form an influential voting block. Thus, we have the stem-cell debate over what should, in my opinion, be a nonissue. The fundamentalists do not accept Peak Oil, and will not. After all, it isn't in the scriptures. (If only I was being sarcastic!). But what can Republican leadership do? Ignore a critical core constituency? That way leads to political disaster.
Finally, we come to the most difficult problem of all. All parts of the political universe like to believe they are motivated by the greater good. Republicans are no different. From one viewpoint, the development and use of resources is desirable, because it causes people to become more prosperous. The Republican party has come under the control of neoconservatives, who, as the Economist points out, combine hawkishness with idealism. Note that the neoconservatives are motivated, at least partially, by idealism – a wish to reform the Middle East according to their vision of what it should be. According to such logic, the people of Iran, of Venezuela, and of various other places would benefit from an importation of American values. Most Republicans get a little unsettled at this point, because the majority doesn’t care for wars. They do support wars fought for self-defense or idealistic causes. Notice that Iraq is framed in that way.
So, how do you convince a Republican of Peak Oil? One can appeal to patriotism – that is, quit sending all our money to the unappreciative folks in the Middle East. One can appeal to greed, framing Peak Oil as a way to save money or make money. One can even point out that scientific solutions may take time, and it’s merely prudent to prepare in the meantime. Avoid bashing the U.S., or suggesting aid or global rationing schemes, since that will close down the communication channels.
My $0.02 worth, anyway.