PeakOil is You
The 'Fear The Doomer' thread
Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread
by Tanada » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 15:45:55
Back about 15 years ago a fertilizer company came around where I worked as a groundskeeper and tried to convince my boss to buy bio solid sterilized fertilizer pellets. My boss didn't go for it because he thought the visitors would object because sooner or later the word would get out. Plus it was 10-10-10 so to get the nutrients were were most lacking we would have had to both use large quantities and over supply some nutrients to get enough of others. The types we normally used were closer to 30-5-5
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread
by ennui2 » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 16:11:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Didn't various economies crash during the same period, with conflict taking place for several of them?
')Didn't various economies crash during the same period, with conflict taking place for several of them?
Now we're getting back into Pstarr correlation = causation again and ignoring the credit crisis... Economies can crash and conflict can happen WITHOUT peak oil doom.
For some people, they simply will never pull their heads out of the fall of 2008. That was the year all peak oil predictions blew up in smoke and it's been all rationalizations ever since.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread
by onlooker » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 16:23:41
I tend to side with Pstar as the evidence can be attained by noting the full scale way in which unconventional reserves ie. shale , fracking have been pursued. Also, how we have been investing and trying to recover oil and gas from ever more inaccessible places. What exactly caused the crash of 2008 is up for debate. Yet much circumstantial evidence exists indicating peak oil in a general sense. By the way I am sure many are familiar with Matthew Simmons "Twilight in the Desert" making a very strong case of peak in SA. Well Saudi Arabia has been widely recognized as having the most reserves so that in itself suggests peak oil. Also, the fact that oil before and after 2008 has been way above historical price range.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread
by ennui2 » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 16:37:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I') tend to side with Pstar as the evidence can be attained by noting the full scale way in which unconventional reserves ie. shale , fracking have been pursued.
I'm not disputing that convention oil has peaked. I'm disputing the doom that this is supposed to signify. You know, Cormac McCarthy, cats and dogs living together, etc... I remember a LOT of rhetoric circa 2008 that unconventional wasn't economical. And yet if that wasn't the case, it would not have been pursued. It was profitable, up to a point, but like anything, they fell into irrational exuberance. I don't think that means that the drilling couldn't make money. I'm sure it did when oil prices were higher. But that's kind of supply/demand give and take is the nature of commodities.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread
by onlooker » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 16:54:30
At least you have one convert hehe
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread
by ralfy » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 23:27:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')onder what happened to all those guys over there who invested so much time into all of this only to be proven wrong a short time later. Maybe they became cornies or just sulked in their basements.
We know what became of Gail Tverberg. She just set up shop with her own blog and is now dishing out doom-is-nigh-du-jour with an ever-evolving narrative to fit the current situation with the same sort of scientific-looking graphs and charts and logical leaps that fooled a lot of us 10 years ago.
It's amazing to me how successful such people can be at peddling their POV decade after decade. There are THOUSANDS of financial newsletters (now mostly blogs) where self-described "financial experts" peddle their advice, decade after decade. Apparently they're smart enough to tell everyone else what will transpire financially, but not to become financially independent (much less very wealthy) following their own advice.
I guess marketing is a powerful thing.I think it's the other way round: the goal is to be wealthy whether or not there is a crisis. That implies seeing each crisis as isolated or temporary. Can that be proven for the current financial crisis, peak oil, and global warming?
