by trespam » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 02:05:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'O')ne problem with looking at peak oil from an entropy point of view is that producing entropy is so much fun:
Eating chocolate,: oh all that lovely entropy.
Downhill skiing: glorious entropy.
Sex: hot and sweaty entropy!
You don't need to bring thermodynamics into a discussion of peak oil. Calling oil a "finite resource" is perfectly adequate. Talking about entropy adds nothing, and probably puts off many people.
It adds nothing to those who don't understand or dismiss it's implications.
I think the entropy discussion is important. In practical terms, I agree that the idea of depletable resources and EROEI is more to the point. The only issue I raise with the entropy discussion is that, once it has been addressed, it tells us nothing about the response of industrial society to energy depletion. But entropy and more generally the thermodynamic perspective does help people understand that there are limits.
Just like I think the exponential growth and overshoot concepts are very important. The might turn people off, but I think they are a foundation for any consideration of ecological economics and human ecology.
Where I get tweaked is when entropy and die-off are used to motivate any detailed understanding of how energy depletion will play out. The response of industrial civilization is unknown. The timing is unknown. History provides clues but cannot be used to prove much of anything, both in terms of human behaviors or other matters.
Hence I get tweaked when Katrina is used as an example for the response of industrial society to peak oil Katrina indicate the response of industrial society to the loss of a coastline due to category 4/5 hurricanes. Beyond that, it proves nothing. Neither does entropy. Nor overshoot.
I used the example the other day on a different board of not ever seeing SUVs in a test tube. If you look at many discussions of peak oil, e.g. Savinar's book, the idea of bacteria and other animals are used. What these comparisons do not take into account is that most animals are highly optimized to the energy in their environment. Once the energy source runs out for those bacteria, they don't have a lot of options. Humans have more options. And humans are not bacteria.
Hence my other rant. The "humans are shit" rant in another thread was primarily motivated by the gross analogies that are often made, comparing humans to bacteria. Now I sometimes have a rather negative--and perhaps realistic--view of what humans are capable of--but they are not bacteria. Animals yes, but that does not provide me with predictive power.
Humans waste enormous quantities of energy. Because it has been dirt cheap. Bacteria don't. That doesn't mean we don't have problems. But the waste must be taken into account. The reduction of waste means loss of jobs, society slowing down, or many things. It's not necessarily hopelessly hopeless, nor hopelessly optimistic. Perhaps there is a path through the bottleneck. Entropy tells me nothing about the existence or non-existnce of that path. In the interim term. In the next five years. Or ten. Or twenty. Or thirty.
It is the response of industrial society to energy depletion that is the primary issue. And entropy, overshoot, and the derision of human nature only provide a very coarse understanding of what will happen. In the long term, entropy does indicate that--well, that everything sort of runs down. Planets, stars, universes--perhaps the latter, still not completely understood.
The key question is the response. And this is also why I still question efforts to create depletion curves. The world has never depleted energy on a global scale. The depletions we've seen to date have been local. Those global depletions are geoligical-economic-political. There is enough slop and noise that I think trying to fine tune depletion curves to mean anything in the future will prove futil. In addition, the response of the consumer--industrial society--must be taken into account. And we don't know that response.
Hence I bring up the issue of emergent systems. Cities, industrial society, etc is a complex system and the study of previous collapses is interesting but not predictive.
Therefore, I think the issues of overshoot, entropy, limits, are all important but, once understood, can be set aside. Because the reality is industrial society and political systems and the behavior of humans, both collectively and individually, are key.
More broadly--since I'm obviously pontificating now--one has to wonder whether this is the natural outcome of any evolutionary process in which a creature rises out of the muck and, at some point, discovers the means to tap into low entropy sources. Everyone discusses how great the Native Americans were, how they had a sustainable lifestyle. In some ways. But there are a lot of large land mammals that may--and it still seems to be may--have been driven to extinction when they crossed the land bridge.
So then I get to wondering: what should be the individual response to peak oil? Is it to go to whatever extremes are necessary to save my sorry ass? Isn't that part of the problem? That we're all so concerned about ourselves? Remember the entropy argument. Everything runs down. So whether it happens slowly, or quickly, it will happen. To a degree, that completely negates the argument of those who use entropy to argue that humans should slow down. Why? If it's going to run down--and it will, someday, since the sun will run down--is it so bad to go out in a big bang. Why wait?
Now I don't seriously believe that. I'm all for society slowing down. But the entropy argument is a double edge sword.
So then I start wondering: ok, all those concerned about saving themselves, they're actually part of the problem. Because they're only interest in this whole topic is to save their ass? Yes, a straw man. Not true. But a perspective to consider.
See, from one perspective, I wonder whether the real response to peak oil, for the committed environmentalists, should be to "off" themselves, i.e. suicide. And please please note I'm not proposing this. This is a philosophical speculative rant. But if they are that concerned, shouldn't they set the best example one can of saving entropy. "News flash: Members of industrial society "off" themselves in order to reduce increase of entropy."
Here's the deal. We don't know the following. When the peak will occur. What the depletion curve will be like. What the response of industrial society will be like. How long it will play out. What effiencies will be found. What restructing will be performed. All uncertainties.
Entropy is a cool concept. But it won't answer any of the above questions. At least not enough to tell me about the following 30 years. The only thing I am certain of is that there will be energy shocks.