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THE Commuting Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 22 Nov 2006, 11:03:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FairMaiden', 'T')wo points: the automobile isn't the reason the tram died in the city - Ford and GM plotted to buy up all the tram lines and rip them up to force folks to purchase vehicles. They were later fined $5 for it. Also, the city's industry was dirty and smelly so the rich started the "suburbs" to get away from it.

Also, the Ford Explorer brand new gets 18 mpg...the '02 version will get 13 mpg (I'm getting these numbers from their site)...and thats assuming the vehicle has had regular maintenance to keep it in OPTIMAL working order...something I seriously doubt for most vehicles.


There are certainly working trams/LRT/strassenbahns/etc. still working in many cities around the world including new and modern ones that are an integral part of these cities urban transport using trains/buses/underground/trams as well as road systems designed for cars and trucks. Despite Ford and GM's best efforts. However, even in these enlightened cities/countries the personal freedom and appeal of the car outweigh the costs of ownership and hassles of commuting and sitting in traffic jams. Sadly, that is. And in Europe that is even with benzine/gasoline/diesel at or near $5-6 per gallon and with viable alternatives at hand. Only physical shortages are likely to change their behavior. Sad, indeed.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby cube » Fri 08 Dec 2006, 18:43:30

I never did like the conspiracy theory of how the auto industry killed public rail transit in America.

I still remember one of my engineering professors from college who was infamous for his "Irish" temper. He went off on a tangent in the middle of class one time and explained that he was sick and tired of students comming to his office with some "new" idea on how to produce energy. Of course these ideas were pathetic.

The professor would usually reply by saying:

"READ YOUR BOOK AND YOU WILL UNDERSTAND WHY YOUR IDEA WILL NOT WORK."

ahhhh yes Thermodynamics.....not my favorite subject in college but definitely a very important one.

BTW something tells me my civil engineering and environmetal engineering professors probably had a lot more "quiet time" during their office hours. Conspiracy theorists rarely come up with new ideas to improve waste water treatment or steel reinforced concrete structures. :roll:


Where were we again? ohh yes the economics of commuting. I think the problem MOST people have is they overwhelmingly concentrate on the cost of the vehicle when thinking about commuting. People never think about the civil engineering aspects of a system....it ALWAYS about energy that's on people's minds.

In an effort to promote the significance of civil engineering here's a quote that can be debated:

"Suburbia will die when governments can no longer afford to maintain freeways and not because people could no longer afford cars."
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby nero » Sat 09 Dec 2006, 02:18:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Suburbia will die when governments can no longer afford to maintain freeways and not because people could no longer afford cars."


Excellent quote. (Attribution?)

It's not just freeways but all the infrastructure, sewers, water mains that will have to be redone. 50 years after a bedroom community has had it's initial explosive development all this infrastructure will need overhauling at the same time and either the level of services will deteriorate, pushing some people out or the taxes will rise pushing some other people out.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby cube » Sat 09 Dec 2006, 15:53:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Suburbia will die when governments can no longer afford to maintain freeways and not because people could no longer afford cars."


Excellent quote. (Attribution?)
....
I'm not sure what you mean by attribution.

But here's a funny or sad story (you can decide). My friend who works for the DOT - department of transportation in "Kalifornia" tells me roads are not always "completely" repaved. As a car travels on a highway the tires come into contact 2 parallel strips......imagine a train on railroad tracks. This is where most of the wear and tear occurs.

Yes you guessed it. Sometimes when the DOT "repaves" the freeway they dig 2 parallel trenches and repave just that portion. Expect to see more of this in the future. :roll:

The trend for the past 50 years was to buy a home farther away from work and simply just commute longer distances. IMHO this trend is going to come to a screeching halt in the very near future or perhaps it already has? Many people have now come to the conclusion that the government is NOT going to build another freeway for them just because they decided to buy a house way out along the edges of suburbia. For a person who was taught that the world operates on "infinite expansion"....this is a very bitter pill to swallow.

The DOT is the MOST HATED state agency in California. Personally I think all of those "self proclaimed enlightend liberal SUV driving yuppie Californians" need to stop acting like a bunch of cry babbies.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby gwmss15 » Sun 10 Dec 2006, 06:40:10

a long commute is more manageable if you just take an INTERURBAN train into the city each day for work. Its quick relaxing and you can even get food or drinks on some trains and price is cheaper than owning a car.

IF more people took a train live would be better

have a look at this www.vline.com.au good interurban commuter system up to 200km from melbourne all DMU trains some loco hauled trains reasonable price very good for commuting

or http://www.railway.co.th/railwaythai.asp good intercity system trains up to 1200km from bangkok plus DMU metro system cheap price and easy to use

if people just give the train a go alot of the problems of long commutes will be reduced.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 10 Dec 2006, 09:37:42

Update from hardcore suburbia:

a. There were about 600 home foreclosures in the real estate section in my county this month. This is about double what it was last year for December.

45 are in my zip code, or the one next to us. Of these, a dozen or so were taken out in the early 2005 time frame. This means that the people paid on them for a year or so and then stopped this summer when gas prices got high. Two of the 45 are for mortgages over $500,000.

Also, about 10% of the foreclosures county-wide are for $50,000 or less, meaning that people took out home equity loans, and then did not pay them back.


b. We know of at least two families who now own 5 cars, even though there are only 4 drivers in the family. In both of the cases, there are two commuting adults, and two college age kids, and the kids' cars were bought used a few years back and are wearing out. The "extra car" is a spare in case one of the cars dies, so that everyone can make their daily auto trek while it is in the shop.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 11 Dec 2006, 04:02:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'a') long commute is more manageable if you just take an INTERURBAN train into the city each day for work. Its quick relaxing and you can even get food or drinks on some trains and price is cheaper than owning a car.

IF more people took a train live would be better

have a look at this www.vline.com.au good interurban commuter system up to 200km from melbourne all DMU trains some loco hauled trains reasonable price very good for commuting

or http://www.railway.co.th/railwaythai.asp good intercity system trains up to 1200km from bangkok plus DMU metro system cheap price and easy to use

if people just give the train a go alot of the problems of long commutes will be reduced.


Germany has recently announced some expansions to their Intercity trains that will travel at up to 300km per hour between major cities to rival cheap, discount airlines. Frankfurt to Munich in under 3-hours, for exampe, versus 30-minutes commute to the airport, check-in one hour ahead of time, 45-minute flight, 30-minutes commute into the city center minimum. Total time almost 3-hours.

Also more comfortable and stress free than a car ride that takes at least 3.5-4 hours, and with bad weather and/or traffic up to twice that. But those upgrades cost serious money and take a long time to implement. Also, Germany is having to cut some regional rail capacity to smaller centers in order to pay for these upgrades elsewhere.

But I have friends who have an easy 30-minute train commute in the mornings and evenings that with underground transfer means approximately one hour door to door. That is enough time to read the paper and drink a coffee in the morning and have a beer on the way home. I prefer to live closer to my work and to walk, but still it is lot less stressful than commuting by auto, and then the infrastructure is there post peak oil.

Europe has its own energy problems, namely an over reliance on imported oil and gas from Russia and the ME, but at least a parallel infrastructure does exist. Unfortunately, if no alternative exists, and it takes ages to build-it, then you are not going to be able to tempt commuters out of their autos.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy experts agreed Thursday the U.S. won't wean itself off imported oil any time soon even in the face of growing national-security threats in the Middle East and concern about global warming.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby cube » Mon 11 Dec 2006, 13:32:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..I prefer to live closer to my work and to walk, but still it is lot less stressful than commuting by auto, and then the infrastructure is there post peak oil.
...
The infrastructure (electric trains) may be there after PO but will there be $$$ to operate it? Public tranist exists in Europe because of hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies. When PO hits and governments can no longer afford to collect taxes from fossil fuels where will the money come from to "subsidize" these projects? Much to the approval of environmentalists, fossil fuel taxes are quite often earmarked for public transit. I fail to see how that makes public transit "independant" of fossil fuels. However I have long since given up on trying to understand environmentalists. :roll:

Electric trains and ICE cars are equally dependant on fossils fuels. :-D
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 04:43:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..I prefer to live closer to my work and to walk, but still it is lot less stressful than commuting by auto, and then the infrastructure is there post peak oil.
...
The infrastructure (electric trains) may be there after PO but will there be $$$ to operate it? Public tranist exists in Europe because of hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies. When PO hits and governments can no longer afford to collect taxes from fossil fuels where will the money come from to "subsidize" these projects? Much to the approval of environmentalists, fossil fuel taxes are quite often earmarked for public transit. I fail to see how that makes public transit "independant" of fossil fuels. However I have long since given up on trying to understand environmentalists. :roll:

Electric trains and ICE cars are equally dependant on fossils fuels. :-D


I think you have to carefully distinguish between post peak oil scenarios in which fossil fuels are simply very expensive or they are simply unavailable. Of course, the end game has to be total lack of supply of petroleum, but I happen to believe that there are many levels of resource depletion before that particular Hell.

Stripped back to their absolute basics prices reflect the cost of labor. Nothing more, nothing less. We have learned to substitute energy for labor because we found it more cost efficient. But so long as we produce an agricultural surplus as the cost of labor falls we can substitute more labor for energy.

This reverses the increases in standards of living that we have witnessed over the past 150-years. If we cannot produce an agricultural surplus, then that is another story. That has everything to do with over-population relative to our ability to grow food, and although it is influenced by post peak oil resource depletion, they are separate.

Rail track can be maintained by manual labor. That is the way it used to be done. That is the way it can be done again. It is harder and less efficient than the way railways are maintained now, but given its importance post peak oil it will not go undone due to lack of funding. Funding afterall is an artificial concept based on our existing money supply, and has nothing to do with the labor and agricultural surplus needed to maintain physical projects.

Europeans pay on average 52% in income tax and mandatory payments, plus up to 20% VAT on everything they purchase. That is the cost in euros to maintain their system as it is. However, if you substitute labor and agricultural surplus as cash equivalents then theoretically you have a lot of surplus manual labor to carry out necessary public works projects.

So therefore it is incorrect to state that railways will stop running as soon as we can no longer afford them. The reverse is true. In the face of scarce energy we will need rail more than ever. Of course, it takes less energy to maintain the track and rolling stock that is already in place rather than build it from scratch, especially if energy is very expensive and/or unavailable. This is where much of Europe has an economical advantage over parts of the USA and many other countries.

Rail can run on stationary power. Sources of stationary power will outlive our current sources of petroleum by a wide margin. Even if the overall system has to be run sub-optimally with less overall energy than we presently consume. Or hope to consume.

But even using ever scarcer petroleum - diesel - for trains is still more efficient than using those same non-renewable resources for commuting by autos or long haul transport using truck. Just as in the past, the future will rely more on long distance movement of goods and people via rail and water because they are more efficient. And as petroleum becomes more expensive and/or more scarce it will necessitate trade-offs between comfort and convenience on one hand and energy efficiency and cost on the other side.

The point being that those areas serviced by rail and water will become important commercial hubs, not those places only accessible by road. Other regional centres may spring up close to places producing an agricultural surplus and excess labor will gravitate to those places that offer employment in rail and water transport and related activities such as loading, unloading, distribution and warehousing. Or that surplus labor will migrate to where surplus food is grown as farm labor.

Again, no one has said anything about rising standards of living or maintaining all of our existing infrastructure with less energy. That which is uneconomical will be salvaged for other purposes or abandoned. For example, used lumber and household accessories from McMansions will not likely be burned for firewood, but they may be salvaged for use in construction elsewhere. Large houses can be sub-divided into multi-family homes. But not if they are in the middle of no where.

However, in the intervening period. Between now, peak oil, and the trough of total resource depletion is likely a long and bumpy ride. The merits of good, integrated public transport will be apparent when the resources needed to maintain roads are no longer available, but workers still need to travel, and essential goods will need to be delivered. I believe it was you (Cube) that said, that cars will be abandoned when governments can no longer subsidize roads before people can no longer afford cars, right?

Please do not get me wrong. Eventually, the rails and the rolling stock will wear out and need to be replaced. I understand the challenges of mining with less energy and other associated problems. Also, the transition will be difficult due to over-population and people living in the wrong places that will need to be displaced. As well infrastructure like rails can be ripped up and stolen to be sold as scrap by gangs. That is also true. And we still have to address other resource depletion issues, not just post peak oil depletion in isolation. However, what is the alternative?

In the meantime, I think you will find many workers willing to take a one hour train ride when they can no longer afford to drive, or to own a car, or the roads are no longer maintained, as opposed to walking. And the delivery of freight will mainly favor rail and water over draught or animal power. Although that is not to say that regional distribution will never again be done by horse and cart. That is also highly likely looking at the developing world that operates a mix of competing transportation systems in conjunction with one another.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby Doly » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 12:13:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'B')ut so long as we produce an agricultural surplus as the cost of labor falls we can substitute more labor for energy.


That's all very well and good in theory, but the average energy use of people in Western countries is roughly equivalent to 200 slaves. Of course, we won't run out of energy overnight, but it's also obvious that manual labour cannot substitute for all the energy we have now.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby cube » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 13:16:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')...
So therefore it is incorrect to state that railways will stop running as soon as we can no longer afford them. The reverse is true. In the face of scarce energy we will need rail more than ever. Of course, it takes less energy to maintain the track and rolling stock that is already in place rather than build it from scratch, especially if energy is very expensive and/or unavailable. This is where much of Europe has an economical advantage over parts of the USA and many other countries.
....
Allow me to clarify. I believe that eventually society will collapse and revert back to the dark ages or maybe all the way back to the stone age. The key word here is "eventually". Furthermore there's nothing that anybody can do to stop it.

In the meantime YES I believe the trains and automobiles will still run post PO in the near future. However public transit will take on a VERY different roll. Within a public transit system there are certain bus routes which are very popular and well used....up to the point that it actually breaks even. However most of the routes are not well used enough to break even. In America it's actually "normal" for a public transit system to only collect 15% of its money from fares while the rest comes from subsidies. It is our economic surplus that makes this possible.

Gone are the days when you'll see buses with 40 seats and only 4 people inside. BTW I see this all the time where I live in the suburbs of California. It is obvious that this particular bus route is not breaking even....and perhaps an argument can be made that this bus route is actually doing more harm to the environment then good because 4 people each driving their own car would burn less fuel then 1 bus. hmmm something to think about?

My view of public transit in a PO world is where half the routes are taken off-line because the taxpayers ran out of money to subsidize unpopular routes but overall there's more people taking public transit. Basically life is going to get more inconvenient in the future.....and after that we can have a collapse/dieoff. :-D

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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 15:10:30

The train system in Europe is indeed quite reasonable, cheap, clean and efficient, but I also think they receive bountiful subsidies from the national governments to keep prices low. Mr. Bill can probably fill us in on the details of this. I am not saying this is necessarily bad, and in fact it may be in the public interest to do such a thing, but the system would be marginally operable without either outright government ownership of the line or assistance from the taxpayer.

Based on some light reading about the system in Japan, the system over there is now "privatized" and weaned off of most subsidies, but the fixed expense of roadbed has been in place for awhile. The difference is that it is so expensive and difficult to own a car in Japan, no one minds taking the train.

Both of these cases have the further advantage of having to be completely rebuilt in the 1946-1950 time frame with plenty of aid from the people that wrecked it in the first place.

The US rail system reached its peak in 1930 at 430,000 miles of track. It is now running at about half of that (223,000). The original system in the US was built with plenty of help from the government, so you can make the argument that to rebuild it, as Kunstler and others suggest, also cannot be done without massive government participation. This also goes for the commuter lines that would have to run from the suburbs to somewhere that people would want to go.

As an aside, I calculate based on the sources below that to refurbish the existing track in the US would take about $51 billion, and to rebuild the old track from the roadbed up would take on the order of $800 billion. So, it could, indeed, be accomplished with the amount of money we spent on Iraq. Also, at 267 tons of steel per mile, it would take 55 million tons of steel, or about 6 months worth of the national output of steel to do this job, and that's without any of the rolling stock. My guess is that we would have to start importing steel in order to accomplish this. But, I think technically it is do-able.

But the question is, in a land where two of its three tallest buildings and one of its most famous and major cities cannot be rebuilt in a timely fashion after a disaster, do we have the organizational ability or national unity to do such a project? I think it is clear we do not. "The Government", at least at the national level, appears to be ineffective and unable to do it, and I am in great doubt as to the ability of the local level governments to do it either. Time appears to be limited. The job will have to be done while we still have something that resembles a tax structure to get the money from.

So if the onset and depth of the crisis is such that it happens before we can get our act together on this issue, a lot of people are going to end up walking to work, if they have work. The project is technically do-able, but as in many cases as they apply to PO, impossible to execute with the current structure in place.

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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby nero » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 16:41:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'M')y view of public transit in a PO world is where half the routes are taken off-line because the taxpayers ran out of money to subsidize unpopular routes but overall there's more people taking public transit.


For public transit to be effective the entire city has to evolve to be "transit centric" as opposed to "car centric". This should happen naturally as the economic incentives for private cars become unattractive. It might very well be that those unpopular routes you speak of will be gone because the houses they serviced are gone as well.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby mommy22 » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 18:09:03

I'm no expert on these things, but having lived in Europe and in the states, I have a bit of perspective. I think that the reason that Europe has such wonderful rail systems and public transit options is that (aside from the gas taxes and other subsidies) they have not dumped so much money into their militaries, and thus, have more money available to spend on things that people actually use everyday, as opposed to the latest bomb technology. Perhaps if this whole Iraq mess gets decided in a few years (decades?) then we may want to use our servicepeople as developers of new rail/transit lines all over the US. By that time, people may start to see the value of public transit and governments may follow.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby cube » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 19:06:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '.')..
But the question is, in a land where two of its three tallest buildings and one of its most famous and major cities cannot be rebuilt in a timely fashion after a disaster, do we have the organizational ability or national unity to do such a project?
...
A sign of collapse? :-D

Perhaps this is why Mel Gibson's new movie Apocalypto has been such an unexpected big hit?

Getting back on topic I actually see a great deal of "agreement" amongst many different people here. There's a consensus that life after PO will be less "convenient". :wink:
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 21:22:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', ' ')The original system in the US was built with plenty of help from the government, so you can make the argument that to rebuild it, as Kunstler and others suggest, also cannot be done without massive government participation.


Besides the original transfer of land to private railroad companies (land which was worth next to nothing without access), what other subsidies did the railways receive from the government? As I understand it, rail was simply a tool to provide access to cheap land, spur development and, thus, underwrite the expenses of the railways, er go, the 'streetcar suburb' or 'railroad town.'

Not only did most passenger railways not receive direct subsidies from the government, but many were taxed for such purposes as expanding airport construction. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Between 1942 and 1962 a 10% rail ticket tax was levied on railroads as a war measure to discourage unnecessary travel. This tax generated revenues of over $5 Billion, which went into the general revenue fund and ironically, was used in some cases to build more airports and highways. In today's dollars, that probably would amount to about $100 billion and one wonders what would have happened if that money had been invested in rail service after the war. By the time, the tax was lifted, the passenger train was already on the ropes. -Source: report by USDOT Secretary William Coleman, 1977 trainweb.org
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby joewp » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 21:32:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')But the question is, in a land where two of its three tallest buildings and one of its most famous and major cities cannot be rebuilt in a timely fashion after a disaster, do we have the organizational ability or national unity to do such a project? I think it is clear we do not. "The Government", at least at the national level, appears to be ineffective and unable to do it, and I am in great doubt as to the ability of the local level governments to do it either. Time appears to be limited. The job will have to be done while we still have something that resembles a tax structure to get the money from.


I think you're quite correct, and this malaise has preceded 9/11. For the past 10 years, the Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex Rail line as a way to transport commuters within NJ and to NYC has been studied, discussed and re-hashed with absolutely no movement. There's two possible configurations using existing right of ways and nobody has ever agreed which one to use, and nobody seems to want to pay for it.

So more and more people move to the area and drive to work, wasting more and more energy, just like lemmings driving off the cliff. Only $5.00 gasoline will make a good portion of them re-think their work or living arrangements.

I guess they'll get it soon enough.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby cube » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 22:27:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', ' ')The original system in the US was built with plenty of help from the government, so you can make the argument that to rebuild it, as Kunstler and others suggest, also cannot be done without massive government participation.


Besides the original transfer of land to private railroad companies (land which was worth next to nothing without access), what other subsidies did the railways receive from the government?
...
Ever heard of the "Indian Wars"? Does the name Crazy Horse, Sitting Bull, or Geronimo ring a bell? Apparantly they and a good percentage of people whom we'll call, Native Americans, weren't too "supportive" of the railroads expansion so Uncle Sam sent in the US Calvary to smash them into submission.

I'm quite sure it must of been a very cheap war by today's standards even when adjusted for inflation but still...the tax payers footed that bill, not the railroad companies. I'd call that a subsidy.

I assume in Europe the government's role in promoting the expansion of the railroads was different. :wink:
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 23:16:46

The government's fingerprints were all over this, at least as it applies to the transcontinental railroad. They borrowed the money, hired the contractors with a sleazy contract system, and in the classic tradition, the money was recycled through the political system:

Transcontinental RR

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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think that the reason that Europe has such wonderful rail systems and public transit options is that (aside from the gas taxes and other subsidies) they have not dumped so much money into their militaries, and thus, have more money available to spend on things that people actually use everyday


You are quite correct, of course. While we were spending billions “defending” Europe and Japan from the Communist threat in the 60’s, the Europeans and Japanese were developing a world-class system of education, manufacturing, social services, and railroads.

Little did we know at the time that we were “defending” them against a system that was incapable of producing a practical refrigerator.

The only difference between then and now is that now, we are borrowing the money to finance our “defense” of our way of life from the nation’s 5-year olds.
Last edited by pup55 on Wed 13 Dec 2006, 08:16:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Economics of long commutes

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 23:47:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')I'm quite sure it must of been a very cheap war by today's standards even when adjusted for inflation but still...the tax payers footed that bill, not the railroad companies. I'd call that a subsidy.


What, the US Government stepping in to extend economic and military hegemony into decidedly unfriendly corners of the globe? That never happens.

I don't know if you can call the Indian Wars an out-and-out subsidy of the railroads, but more of your typical Manifest Destiny land grab. The fact that railroads and government were in collusion towards the same goal is meaningless; the land grab would've occurred anyway, later, and probably with the highway system. Too many resources at stake to be left unclaimed.
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