[StarvingLion]

Deutsche Toilet WindScam Bank has set a new low.

REuters admits coordinated central bank "asset purchases" (money printing) has never been higher. It has increased every year in the past 7 years.

"World" bank admits GDP growth is lower than ever.

Conclusion: Shale "oil" and Wind Scams are a total failure. The system is failing.

The Coyne Bot is under siege at that other place. Nobody believes the gov bullshit statistics any longer.

Musk has discovered the "synergy" of two massively money losing electron economy "enterprises" (money pits).

All producers are being systematically bankrupted. The communist bums at the central banks need to be liquidated.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', 'D')eutsche Toilet WindScam Bank has set a new low.

REuters admits coordinated central bank "asset purchases" (money printing) has never been higher. It has increased every year in the past 7 years.

"World" bank admits GDP growth is lower than ever.

Conclusion: Shale "oil" and Wind Scams are a total failure. The system is failing.

[ennui2]

With all the sarcastic strawmen you build, PStarr, you could probably heat all the homes in the US for a whole winter season.

Unfortunately, said strawmen do NOT constitute a rebuttal, nor is it in any way amusing.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's okay Starve. AdamB and ennui have a plan for N. Dakota oil. They will install juvenile battery and solar cell/windmills on the great plains and those will suck abiotic oil out of the nougaty center of the earth where it was compressed out of primeval methane many decades past.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') think I am a yuck.

[PeakOiler]

Updated graph with data through June:



June N. Dakota production was reported as 1033 kbpd.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'U')pdated graph with data through June:



June N. Dakota production was reported as 1033 kbpd.

[ROCKMAN]

"...estimates 25% of pumping capacity has been cannibalised beyond recovery. "

More problems then losing equipment. Most ops hinge on experience hands with some vtery job specific skills. It's not difficult for one 30 second misstep to lose a $6 million well bore. A great many of those hands have been laid/severly cut back in the last 2 years. Many won't come back into the fold a number of years down the road. Depending on the specific job it takes 5 to 8 years or so to "break out"...do the job without a senior at his side.

[PeakOiler]

Updated graph with data through July 2016:



July was 1028 kbpd.

[Tanada]

From the news page at the front of po dot com, an update on the Bakken. I find the information useful and I definitely believe the EIA is tragically optimistic in their projections. You can see the graphs of their expectations at the link below the quote. To me the most important number is that 183 fewer wells were producing at the end of December 2016 but 83 new wells started producing that month. With 264 wells shut in and 81 added that means they are currently replacing less than a third of the wells as they deplete out and get shut. 83/264 = 31.44% replacement rate at current prices. This is an improvement over six months earlier but still a far cry from the level needed to balance things out.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he two horizontal lines represent the 2015 peak and the 2015 peak production at the end of 2016.. And the difference is almost exactly one half million barrels per day.

But more important is the points I have placed in the ovals. Notice that production from 2016 wells in December changed very little from November 2016 wells. The decline was almost entirely from legacy production. That is from wells drilled prior to 2016.

If you look at Enno’s first chart you will notice that the decline was shared by a decline in production from every year prior to 2016.

According to the Director’s Cut, producing wells dropped by 183, from 13,520 to 13,337. 81 new wells were brought on line so that means 264 wells had to be shut down. the numbers from the North Dakota web site were different. They had the well count going from 13,201 to 13,013, a decline of 188. At any rate between 260 and 270 wells had to be shut down if either number is correct and 81 new wells were brought on line.

So we could conclude that the huge drop in legacy production was due to all those wells being shut down. But why were they shut down? Your first thought would be that they were shut down because of low production. But if that were the case, that they were mostly low producers, then the barrels per day per well should have risen. It did not. Barrels per day per well dropped by 6, from 78 bpd to 72 bpd.

It is my opinion that the EIA is wildly over optimistic. More so concerning the Bakken but with other plays as well. Tight oil will be a complete bust. The Permian is performing well because it is mostly conventional production. But even the Permian will begin to decline by 2020 or shortly thereafter. All other shale plays are already in decline. But the idea that the Bakken will still be producing two million barrels per day in 2040 is ludicrous beyond belief.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'S')ounds like all that earlier talk about a growing backlog turned out to be an error. If the completion rate peaked in December 2014 and has outpaced drilling since then the backlog has to have been shrinking for over a year now.

[dashster]

Is The Bakken a Bust?

[tita]

From shaleprofile.com:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')evere winter weather impaired completion operations, and extra wells were shut-in. January was also a harsh month, so I don’t expect a reversal very soon.

[Tanada]

As usual it is all about the time scale you use.

If you compare Bakken production today with 2012 it is very good looking. If you compare it with 2008 production it is down right MIRACULOUS looking.

Now that prices have more or less stabilized for the last three months leaseholders are seriously evaluating if they can earn a good enough profit from drilling and completion in 2017. Considering where prices were a year ago when many of the players decided to 'pause everything' through the 2016 work year this years evaluation is bound to turn out differently. Two of the biggest players announced in February or March 2016 that they were suspending all new drilling as of April 1, 2016. I forget which companies it was but it made a big news splash at the time.

In any case the situation on February 22, 2017 is substantially different than it was February 22, 2016. Prices today are about 138 percent of prices a year ago, and if you don't think that influences drilling decisions you must not understand the profit motive at all.

One year ago prices for WTI contracts were just under 50 percent of the 2010-2014 average price. Today they are 68 percent of the 2010-2014 average price. Again if you don't think this will influence drilling rates then you really have no understanding of the profit motive of business.

I fully grant that 68 percent of the sale price will lead to less drilling than the mad cap pace of 2013-2015 when they were using every rig they could lay hands on and building more. But at the same time levels are liable to climb back up to what they were just a few years ago before the late 2015 crash in contract price.

At some point the legacy production decline and new drilling will balance and the Bakken will stop falling as it is today. If prices go high enough drilling will again exceed legacy decline and the Bakken production will resume its upward march.

The big difference today is twofold, the sweetest of sweet spots on state and private land have been drilled about as much as they can be. So for state and private lands the individual well productivity is likely to continue its inexorable decline requiring more wells per unit of production than were needed in 2013. The other factor is President Trump has ordered leases be offered in the federal lands that cover a swath of the Bakken formation. This means the interior department will be offering leases and optimistic drillers will be able to lease and drill searching for undeveloped sweet spots. Any they find will add to the well productivity stats and help boost Bakken oil to greater production than many anticipate.

[Cog]

Your are going to get the ETP folks are riled up Tanada. In their world, you need $70/bbl oil to break even, much less make a profit.