Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
Topic locked

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 23:48:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')What I recall, and see when I look at a WTI chart is that WTI averaged roughly $90+ish from, say, mid-2010 through mid-2014. That looks nothing like your chart. So if your chart isn't historical WTI prices, what is it, please?

Example of a WTI chart I just perused to check my recollection:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-o ... tory-chart


OS: The chart I posted above is the range each year, not the average price.

Duh. OK. Got it. Somehow I missed that -- the range for 2008 was so huge I just (wrongly) assumed that couldn't be what it was, without checking.

My bad, and thanks for the clarification.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 07:40:19

I just think its interesting to see how volatile prices have become in the last 10-12 years. What would the Oil Price Challenge be like if the range was only $3-$5 like it was in 1983 & 1984! lol :o

btw, the chart is based on the EIA data (Excel) at
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby careinke » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 14:10:10

OK,

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 5047
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 15:56:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'O')K,

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30


What would drive crude prices back down to levels not seen since the 1990's, a supply glut or demand dearth? If a glut, where do the new supplies come from? If it's falling demand then it would have to be substitution. What are the alternatives?

What are your guesses pstarr? Inquiring minds want to know. :)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 16:32:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'v')t it's careinke's guess, not mine. I don't do economic predictions. It's a game for the playa's.

Now regarding the California drought: I've posted some odds on it ending by Jan 1. Sadly no one took me up on it (:


Awww, c'mon pstarr! It's just for fun! You don't like having a little fun? (fyi: I don't invest in the stock market, so I'm not really a "playa".)

And where's Tanada? I think she would do well in this game.

Don't forget that today is the last market day of 2016. The final deadline for making or changing your guesses should be before next Thursday when the EIA report comes out. (There is a one-day delay due to the holiday).
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 16:59:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t seems the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, India's demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes, gold-pricing and the end of the petro dollar could effect crude pricing in some weird way that is way above my pay grade. Plus there's that peak oil thing. and ETP. So I'll go with with careinke wrote:

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30


Welcome aboard, Pete!

Reminder: There are two sorts to the scorecard data. The first sort is by overall difference, the second sort is by name (alphabetically). So even though y'all may be tied at the hip all this next year, careinke will beat you! :o
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 17:33:42

Here's the scorecard so far:

Image

Note that I've changed my guesses just a bit.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby BahamasEd » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 18:03:12

My final prediction is

High $56
Low $32
Close $37
Avg $42
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
BahamasEd
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun 17 Jul 2016, 20:44:57
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby careinke » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 20:25:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'O')K,

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30


What would drive crude prices back down to levels not seen since the 1990's, a supply glut or demand dearth? If a glut, where do the new supplies come from? If it's falling demand then it would have to be substitution. What are the alternatives?


Global economic collapse. :)
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 5047
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SeaGypsy » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 21:19:36

High- $99
Low- $44
Close- $88
Average- $66
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 14:23:10

Put me down for

HIGH 75
LOW 45
CLOSE 65
AVERAGE 55

Thanks!
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Tanada » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 16:09:32

Low $52.50
Average $63.00
High $74.00
Close $65.00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17094
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Cog » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 16:24:12

High: 60.20
Low: 50.10
Close: 53.25
Average: 53.25
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13416
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby vtsnowedin » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 17:53:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'H')igh: 60.20
Low: 50.10
Close: 53.25
Average: 53.25

Your predictions call for a very boring year. That would be nice. :)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby kublikhan » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 18:45:06

low: $45
high: $60
close: $55
average: $55
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 5064
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Illinois
Top

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby salinsky » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 01:16:03

My guesses. Low $46.18
High $62.12
Close $58.10
Average $56.09

Sal
If you believe something is true, then it must be true or you wouldn't believe it was true, therefore, everything you think is true, is true, or is it?
Señor Salinsky

A people's culture is their best ignorance.
SAL
User avatar
salinsky
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 101
Joined: Sat 13 Dec 2014, 20:05:04
Top
PreviousNext
Topic locked

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron