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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Spread Action Trading Oil Prices

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Spread Action Trading Oil Prices

Unread postby goose » Fri 21 Oct 2005, 12:12:18

yo...im new to the website.....new to the forum!!! so any oil gurus spare me your wrath....initially....

does any one now what is going on with the front month calenders....both in WTi and Brent.... the former is +55 or last time i check and brent is -43 [around]

id have thought with the current hurricane missing the oil refineries and the supply problems caused by rita/katrina that [also outages] that the refineries would be on the look out for spare oil hanging around the north sea... in anticipation of more refining capacity coming online.... the backwardation in WTi is fully understandable but the contango in brent is playing on my mind as I feel it should be higher.... Not only that but the ARB (Wti-Brent) should be much lower.... but these are probably my views and i want to see what other people think.... Also the flat price of brent is too low....!!!!!!

the physical market is running nice, West Africa and Med November loading programs have no problems...even Urals has value...

are there any physical boys out there who would like to share opinions...??? just PM me...

im in a few markets on the IPE.... but we are currently on a mission to trade on access......

take it easy

GOOSE
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Re: SPREAD ACTION - TRADING

Unread postby tdrive » Fri 21 Oct 2005, 13:22:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')oes any one now what is going on with the front month calenders....both in WTi and Brent.... the former is +55 or last time i check and brent is -43 [around]


Both are down. Where did you see that? Was it earlier today?
I think people are underestimating the hurricane effect,
combined with the seasonal drop in demand they read
the numbers the wrong way. Plus the imports here are too high,
and winter is a month away. Just wait for November when
everyone will be running scared. Also I think China is fiddling
with the numbers, they have been drawing from inventories
way too long. No way 9% GDP Y-O-Y can be sustained with
flat oil demand. I say a couple more months and things will be
different. Bush will start filling up the SPR, and China will start
filling their SPR, cold winter will hit Europe, no more exports to US.
Longs sit tight and enjoy the ride. I thinbk Brent will get even with NYMEX soon.

Check here for my daily analysis.

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Re: SPREAD ACTION - TRADING

Unread postby goose » Fri 21 Oct 2005, 14:02:36

most probably earlier today..... im listening to the nymex squak and they are not qouting the spread....

i think the chinese thing is valid...but its now they have to act..brent is low and that should attract asain buyers pushing the price higher....

bit of a late move happening but i felt this was coming as no one would like to go into the weekend short as the hurrican could do some stupid turn straight for the refiniries.....

where do you get your data... we have platts crude market wire so im always tracking the physicals although they are hard to understand as ive only been trading oil for 5 months....... but doing well.... touch would...!!!
Goose

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Re: SPREAD ACTION - TRADING

Unread postby tdrive » Fri 21 Oct 2005, 16:26:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goose', 'm')ost probably earlier today..... im listening to the nymex squak and they are not qouting the spread....

i think the chinese thing is valid...but its now they have to act..brent is low and that should attract asain buyers pushing the price higher....

bit of a late move happening but i felt this was coming as no one would like to go into the weekend short as the hurrican could do some stupid turn straight for the refiniries.....

where do you get your data... we have platts crude market wire so im always tracking the physicals although they are hard to understand as ive only been trading oil for 5 months....... but doing well.... touch would...!!!


I am getting my data from my brokerage and I am not trading physicals.
As to Wilma I thing the effect will be marginal according to the
latest data, see model forecasts below.

Image

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Re: SPREAD ACTION - TRADING

Unread postby goose » Sat 22 Oct 2005, 08:37:53

cheers pal....

got long long long......haapy days...!

im guna be researching this wkd...lets see what i can come up with!!!!
Goose

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