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SHTF in Your Locality

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 09:06:25

Construction is booming near the city. Gasoline is under $3.00.

No "S" visible whatsoever...
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Farknight » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 21:09:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') thought I'd try to bring this thread back to life since we have a crisis of another kind at the moment.


My area is fine. Gasoline is much lower now near $3.19/gal down from over $4.00 not long ago. The monster pick-ups and SUVs all roar by me in my 4 door sensible sedan. The October weather in Virginia is absolutely gorgeous, basically perfect, sunny, dry and warm but not hot.

The Town (7000 folks) had their big annual "TAG SALE" today, basically the whole town is one big yard sale. There were a LOT of people buying and selling, traffic was more like NYC than a small Virginia Piedmont town. The only fly in the ointment is that the County government is 170 million in the hole. Services will be cut and maybe some jobs lost but nobody appears worried right now.

Of course, we are a pretty self-sufficient area with our own well attended Farmers' Market where everything sold MUST be grown locally in our County. We also have quite a few CSAs (Community Supported Agriculture) farms. I belong to a 180 acre mostly organic farm where I get a box loaded with great fresh food in season each week during the season. This week we got apples, potatoes, kale, onions, pumpkins and all types of squashes.

The wineries are all booming and the tourist folks from the city (DC and Baltimore) are everywhere this weekend in BMW roadsters, convertibles of every shining description along with a lot of motors rumbling up and down our rural by-ways. The GIANT McCAIN signs are sprouting up everywhere! All is well in our corner of Amerika.

I'm just happy to live down my dirt road, on my land, up the hill and in the forest. Out of the way, out of sight. I have my food stocks, my ammo and weapons, my own water supply. I am ready just in case but right now not much bad appears to be happening except on TV and in the newspapers. It is as if reading about a whole different nation's travails somewhere far off. Sorta of weird.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 06:11:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ':')shock: Still pretty calm here in the hills. People are getting their 401K statements and watching their money melt away on the stock market. One friend dosn't give exact numbers but I got the impression he's down over 100k and he is just a retiree.


I suppose J6P won't realize anything is wrong until even backwoods communities in VT are feeling the pinch in some way. I'm really curious how long it takes here for what we see in the markets and in the employment numbers and tax receipts to work its way down to the public at large?

So far of course the Plastic still seems to work for the most part, grocery stores are full, gas prices are going down. How long does it TAKE here for what is happening at the top of the food chain to work its way down to the bottom? How long does it take for the economy to grind to a halt? The metaphor is made here of hitting a Brick Wall at 500MPH, but that is of course instantaneous death, and this is not that at all. At the very least, it takes a few days to empty off all the shelves of a given Walmart, and that would be in a highly populated area.

When do we reach Critical Mass? By that I mean, when are the problems so obvious to J6P they cannot be denied any longer? Will it take a week, a month, a year? More?

Interestingly, we have not heard further reports about Gas shortages. Is it possible demand destruction has been enough that what is being pushed through the pipelines now is sufficient to meet demand everywhere?

I feel like I am living in a dreamworld when I go out on my shopping trips. All the shoppers, they are utterly clueless. The stuff is ALWAYS on the shelves at Walmart. It will ALWAYS be there. ALWAYS at Low Prices. I know this cannot continue much longer, but HOW long will it go on here before it becomes OBVIOUS?

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Re: SHTF IN YOUR LOCALITY

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 06:47:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TT', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '"')]Use it before the grid goes down? Dumb.
If you've got it, why not use it. Considering the power company pays us $0.60c for every kwh we generate and export to the grid, and we only have to pay $0.15c for every kwh we use, it makes a lot of sense to generate and export it.
Seems downright stupid to have $15,000 worth of solar panels sitting in your shed doing nothing when it could be earning you $180 per month in feed in tarifs. That is $2,160 per year which represents 15% on investment.

I missed this reply back in August but if your still around TT you are right. A solar set up isn't going to wear out or use up any fuel and if you can sell the output for a profit it would be silly not to. I was only considering fossil fueled back up generators where you have to buy and deliver the fuel to them and your net cost would be more than its replacement cost at present grid prices. Also you would be wearing out emergency equipment for a none emergency.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby tex123 » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 06:51:18

Yesterday I was somewhat surprised to hear quite a bit of talk about this mess from a different group of people. One of the Dr.'s on staff was explaining how we got into this mess, in his opinion, and how he would not be able to retire nearly as soon as he had planned. He said it would now take several years of saving to make up for what he has lost in his retirement plan. Most everyone had a story to tell about how much money they had lost in thier 401K.

This all happened so fast, with barely a warning, that hardly anybody had time to rip their savings from the hands of their investment brokers. People now watch helplessly as their hard earned money disintegrates before thier eyes. Yet the rhetoric continues "The fundementals are sound, be patient, it will come back, it always has." Now that the common man has lost more than what they would have had they withdrawn their deferred investments and just paid taxes on it, what is left may not be worth saving.

There are at least two people I know who have been stocking up on essentials and getting out of debt, hunkering down for what they have been expecting for quite a while. Some are quite concerned that there is not enough time to prepare for what it seems is coming our way.

My belief is that now is the time to stock up if there is any way you can. It seems to me that deflation is the order of the day but that this will not last. What is cheap today (if you still have money to spend) will be out of reach when the pendulum swings the other way and inflation or even hyperinflation kicks in.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 07:13:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ':')shock: Still pretty calm here in the hills. People are getting their 401K statements and watching their money melt away on the stock market. One friend dosn't give exact numbers but I got the impression he's down over 100k and he is just a retiree.

I suppose J6P won't realize anything is wrong until even backwoods communities in VT are feeling the pinch in some way. I'm really curious how long it takes here for what we see in the markets and in the employment numbers and tax receipts to work its way down to the public at large?

Hey I resemble that remark!!!
The house next door just sold for 950k so the neighborhood isn't all that bad. That retiree made his money doing work for Bostonians and New Yorkers who came to VT to spend their winnings. Its not backwoods its the center of things.

J6p will start paying attention when 1.He gets laid off or 2. his plastic won't work. Most already know it is slow and has been sence last spring when the price of liquid asphalt went up and state governments cut way back on paving and highway maintence. J6p is used to hard times and knows where the unemployment office is and how to work under the table. The stock brokers and academics haven't got a clue as to what to do if the boss comes in wearing a sad face with a security guard behind him.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby hope_full » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 07:25:57

I've been to the dentist twice in the last week (don't ask) and was astounded to see *NO ONE* in the waiting area. This is a two-dentist office and typically, I have to wait days for an appointment.

When I called last week and asked how soon I could be seen, the receptionist replied, "What about right now?" I said, "Well, I'm in the middle of something but I can be there in an hour."

She said, "One hour? Okay. That's fine."

That's something that has NEVER happened. So when I got there, I was surprised to see that I was alone in their 30-chair waiting area. I asked, "Where is everybody?" She said, "Some days, we're just real slow."

Then on the next viist, I was again ALONE in the reception area and after I was ushered back to the office area, I saw one other patient. She and I were the only patients for that one hour - that I could see.

This is one of the most popular dentists in the area and also - one of the not-so-cheap dentists in our area. I guess that $130 tooth cleaning is something you can put on the back burner when times are tight.

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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby JJ » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 08:37:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tex123', 'I') thought I'd try to bring this thread back to life since we have a crisis of another kind at the moment.

If I didn't follow the market news and this website I wouldn't know anything had transpired except that the price of gas has dropped dramatically. This seems to be the attitude of many of my coworkers. "Draw money out of the bank, pull my 401K out of the market, are you crazy?" Many people think that the reason the gas prices plummeted is that those darn speculators have been stopped from running the price up. Most see Wall Street as completely detached from the real world and not effecting thier lives in any dramatic way. People around here are still going to work, still buying houses, still doing thier Halloween shopping, having parties, etc.. Most wonder what the government fuss is all about when nothing has substantially changed in thier lives.

Sometimes I feel like a nut for paying attention to all this bad news when most others are just riding it out and not worrying about a thing.


I went into the breakroom where I work Friday to look at the stock market and six people were watching some stupid game show; I was met with open hostility and "all he wants to look at is bad news".

My boss flat out told me I'm insane sometime around Monday. (then he lost 100,000 out of his 401k in the next few days)

People here are oblivious to whats going on. Its like living in two seperate realities. However, a friend of mine who's a seismologist e-mailed me last night and said welcome to the NWO; I wonder if they will leave us any crumbs after this weekend?
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Farknight » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 09:23:24

In my area of Northern Virginia we are so close to DCLand that there are literally millions of federal government workers, retirees and those that feed at the federal teat...lobbyists, contractors, military contractors, etc. These people have been paid fabulously and live the life to show it all off...BIG house in city, suburban "New Town" (Town Center Complexes of which my County now has an astounding four), and even in the rural areas with Llama and alpaca farms, wineries and pick ur owns.

These people are clueless yet basically smart people. They read and see the turmoil but if it ain't effecting them so be it. TPTB need these folks I guess to maintain their power.

I was appalled when my son told me that Blackwater guards actually secure the perimeter and facilities of a major bio-medical research facility he occasionally attends. He is a bright boy (actually very bright and a merit semi-finalist on his way to finalist I'm sure)...got it from Mom not me, of course. Our mailbox is stuffed with scholarship and Service Academy offers and money. Even though he is in public school he attends a special "Science Academy" that just happens to be funded by the bio-medical research facility. When I heard "Blackwater" I was incredulous but he is a bright boy and knows the situation. It sounds SO MUCH like one of those crazy first person adventure video games that I was amazed...secret bio-med facility, secured by mercenaries conducting top secret research...only the hero can deal with the outcome.

When asked what they are doing there he says some of the stuff is for medical research, of course, and some is "don't ask".

As for WHEN TSHTF...I believe this will differ by locality. In Detroit, at least in parts TSHTF. If YOU are laid off and broke, in debt to the eyeballs TSHTF. I ascribe a variant of that old "thousand Points of Light" theme...."A Thousand Paper Cuts of Collapse."

At least IMHO.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby StuckInPhilly » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 09:57:14

I see nothing going on in this neck of the woods. Massive amounts of people in second gear only traffic jams and the usual suburban sprawl of box-stores.
I'm fairly certain that most of the locals are brain dead anyway.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 12:44:22

I went to a fiber arts retreat this weekend. Most of these people are small sheep farmers or have small wool/yarn businesses. Some work and take care of elderly relatives, and this is just a hobby.

For the first time the discussion turned to the economy. People were planning new get-togethers with gas prices in mind. Others were talking about putting food up for the first time in years, in case it got too expensive to buy food at the grocery store. One man said, "you know, if times get tight we can barter our handmade items. Warm coat or gloves for food."

I was astonished. This is in the mainstream now, maybe not peak oil but people around here know something is wrong and are doing something about it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 13:46:01

There still seems to be the same amount of traffic in my area (ie: lots); I went to the store yesterday to get some distilled water, and the place was jumping with whole families shopping, filling their carts. I haven't seen that in a long time!
And, the water isle was about half empty. There were only four gallons of distilled water left, and, there were no refillable water jugs left.
The very elderly woman who bagged my water was new. I wonder if she had Needed to get a job.
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 14:00:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', 'I') see nothing going on in this neck of the woods. Massive amounts of people in second gear only traffic jams and the usual suburban sprawl of box-stores.
I'm fairly certain that most of the locals are brain dead anyway.


SIP,

Presuming you indicate you live in Philadelphia, I was at a Target last night to buy some stuff.

1. CDs were pretty thin.
2. Pots and pans, a few, lots of empty space.
3. Jewelry counter, mostly empty.
4. Electronic toys - Isles, or parts thereof void of merchandise.

Not clear what is going on here, but they didn't seem to be restocking.

I noticed nothing untoward at Lowes.
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I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby StuckInPhilly » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 18:36:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', 'I') see nothing going on in this neck of the woods. Massive amounts of people in second gear only traffic jams and the usual suburban sprawl of box-stores.
I'm fairly certain that most of the locals are brain dead anyway.


SIP,

Presuming you indicate you live in Philadelphia, I was at a Target last night to buy some stuff.

1. CDs were pretty thin.
2. Pots and pans, a few, lots of empty space.
3. Jewelry counter, mostly empty.
4. Electronic toys - Isles, or parts thereof void of merchandise.

Not clear what is going on here, but they didn't seem to be restocking.

I noticed nothing untoward at Lowes.



Perhaps I need to go shopping more to notice these things.
I have noticed some odd large spaces missing in the local Target but they filled in a few days later and I never thought much of it.

I'll keep a closer eye on the shelves.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby patience » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 20:35:12

We hit the Sam's Club and Home Depot this weekend near Louisville, with both of our pickups, and brought home a load of groceries, and a load of building materials. Sam's and Wal Mart were fairly busy, but carts were not full and lines were short at the checkout.

Home Depot was pretty dead, and a lot fewer sales people were in evidence. Parking lot was pretty thin for a weekend. Construction is pretty dead here, and apparently remodelling, too. This area is in the old Rust Belt of manufacturing that has gone south, and to the Far East.

One of the most aware people I know was over last week and said he planned to fill out his preps to 5 year level, and would do his best to make it happen in a week. He is in business for himself, and is very aware of the financial woes. this was a couple days ahead of the "Global Financial Bailout", announced Monday by Europe and the US.

My family is clueless, except for wife and kids, who are on top of it. Extended family and most acquaintances in the city areas have no idea how tenuous the situation is, but NOBODY is spending any money they don't have to out here in the country. Farmers are looking to get hurt by fallen grain prices. When they bring something in for repair to our shop, it is really trashed--wouldn't go another inch without fixing.

These country folk "got it" last spring, and all planted gardens, canned food, and cut firewood. They quit going to Wally World, and have cut driving to the bone. Our immediate area has always been poor, so they know how it works, and they know the signs of hard times.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 21:31:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'I')'ve been to the dentist twice in the last week (don't ask) and was astounded to see *NO ONE* in the waiting area. This is a two-dentist office and typically, I have to wait days for an appointment.

When I called last week and asked how soon I could be seen, the receptionist replied, "What about right now?" I said, "Well, I'm in the middle of something but I can be there in an hour."

She said, "One hour? Okay. That's fine."

That's something that has NEVER happened. So when I got there, I was surprised to see that I was alone in their 30-chair waiting area. I asked, "Where is everybody?" She said, "Some days, we're just real slow."

Then on the next viist, I was again ALONE in the reception area and after I was ushered back to the office area, I saw one other patient. She and I were the only patients for that one hour - that I could see.

This is one of the most popular dentists in the area and also - one of the not-so-cheap dentists in our area. I guess that $130 tooth cleaning is something you can put on the back burner when times are tight.

HF


Yeah, my dentists business has been slow. I think he plans on working a few more years now. So much for early retirement.

Anyways, I'm out about $1,200 within the last two Months.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Gerben » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 05:35:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '1'). CDs were pretty thin.
2. Pots and pans, a few, lots of empty space.
3. Jewelry counter, mostly empty.
4. Electronic toys - Isles, or parts thereof void of merchandise.

Not clear what is going on here, but they didn't seem to be restocking.

I noticed nothing untoward at Lowes.

Probably nothing wrong, but...
possibly they have a credit problem. Not only consumers buy on credit, so do businesses. If they have a big sale next time you go there, or even find them closed, then you know they are in trouble.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Cloud9 » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 06:43:04

There was a shoot out one street over in the hood yesterday afternoon. Local thugs kicked the door in on a home and triggered the alarm. Cops with dogs were all over the place. I don't know how it turned out.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Blueberry » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 07:31:21

As far as vacant spots on shelves, I've been noticing that since gas prices started going up.

Today, I noticed that the stores I went to were completely dead, including WalMart. It was kind of eerie. At a completely empty Albertsons's, the 20 yo checker said to a coworker (right in front of me!) "They need to start laying people off."

At the mall -- ALL the stores had sale signs up. Driving down the road -- SALE signs everywhere. They're trying hard to bring people in.
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Re: SHTF in Your Locality

Unread postby Arsenal » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 09:15:39

Costco was packed. People buying all sorts of supplies. Rice, honey, flour, etc.. Home Depot was dead as well as Target. Lots of little stores are very empty but gas went down!! :roll:

Other than that it seems pretty normal here. No increase in crime yet but the layoffs have not happened. Once that hits, I expect a very sharp increase in thefts.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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