[Pops]

New game!

I think the conjunction of automation (increasing efficiency by eliminating required human labor through technology of all types) and zero economic growth is very interesting.

So let's say in another 50 years the population has stabilized at 9B (or whatever number), FFs are pretty well as rare as natural pearls and via the magic of the zero sum game, the per capita energy consumption of the entire world is about the same as Nigeria today - 776 kgoe, which is right at 10% of per capita consumption in the US. (2003 numbers) - pretty generous of me I think.

Technology has moved along as well as can be expected considering finite resource constraints and adding some amount of additional renewables and of course the never ending economic growth we all knew would end - has.

How does the world look?
What do people do for a living?
Are they more happy/satisfied - less?

[Plantagenet]

Per capita Energy use is pretty strongly correlated with per capita GDP (i.e. wealth).



If we don't start building nukes and solar arrays and wind farms like crazy to make up for the huge amount of energy we will lose as the oil supply diminishes, we are all going to be busted and poor as dirt under your scenario

[americandream]

I foresee a return to Soviet style collectivisation and decades of authoritarian rule to wean humankind off many decades of obsolescent plastic duck addiction.

[Sixstrings]

Hm.. well as you know from the other thread I think we're approaching tech-induced "peak productivity" and that's partly why we no longer have enough jobs in the US.

The question of course is whether new tech can overcome peak resources. If it does, then extreme levels of productivity will require some new form of communism. So assuming this BAU scenario, I'd say in 2060 all first world nations will have a permanent dole. It will be an accepted fact that productivity is so high that there aren't enough jobs for people anymore.

This isn't to say the non-working will lay about shiftless.. what we'll see is a mixed system, wherein most financial support for the unemployed comes from government while the unemployed supplement their dole checks with low-paid microjobs, volunteer type work, or more commonly something they're interested in but doesn't pay much.

If we're not headed for apocalypse or third world living, then it's going to be a new communism -- I'm very sure of that.

Someone mentioned in the other thread that we need a new breakthrough tech to spur job creation, which I take to mean something as significant as the steam engine, the railroad, or the Internet. The problem though is that whatever game-changing tech comes out, it won't require much human labor -- you have to admit, each giant leap in agriculture and industry has resulted in successively less human labor.

When you say "singularity" I guess you mean the AI singularity? If and when that occurs, computers will be sentient and therefore able to do most of the service type jobs, so there's just no way capitalism can function with so few humans required to work. Assuming the AI singularity, the only hope for human labor is in the creative fields -- AI sentience is possible by 2060, but I think only humans will be capable of creativity. So, a lot of people will work in design / creative types of jobs that we can't imagine at this time. I'm pretty sure this is how it will go -- people get bored, and if there is no other work to do they tend to want to work at something creative.

The other possibility is that the AI singularity never happens, tech does not overcome peak everything, and the US continues down its current path towards third world status.

[patience]

I'm betting on some sort of apocalypse, then a third world existence. I don't see any reason to think that our business models in the US will change to suit a new paradigm. I think they will just die, or go elsewhere. I see that happening now.

Technology is only developed in answer to a need of capitalism in the US. Capitalism can find cheaper places to make iPods than in the US, so why invent new processes? The only motive now is to compete for price, which doesn't pay for much R & D in the time we have left with FF for a crutch. And there is no IMMEDIATE, as in this week, need to try to develope alternative energies, nor manufacturing processes. So, since the finance boys are in charge of business now, nothing will change as long as it is making money this week. They will worry about next week when it gets here. Soon, it will be too late.

Then, our much lauded US high life goes in the sewer. NOTE: It is probably too late now, since the US and most of the world is so saturated with debt. Some call that "demand pulled forward", since without credit people would not purchase the stuff they buy today for a long time yet. Run out of credit, and it is game over. I am convinced that this will be the downfall, and soon, not a lack of fresh technology.

ETA: I believe this strongly enough that I put a good percentage of our life savings into paying for a subsistence farm for our daughter and SIL. Also got the stuff to work it. If, as I am convinced, we are going to be in a third world situation, I don't want the kids to be sharecroppers.

[efarmer]

Pops pops a pop quiz:


How does the world look?
Like function and aesthetics had a battle and function won and was awarded chickens,
useful materials in heaps, and all the productive adults required to power up the kids and
old folks under a single roof as a prize. Communications will be very good and information
flow will supplant human travel in every niche it can exploit.

Vacation will be arranging a clan to swap heaps with for a spell after promising to pick through their heaps for entertainment, but not to swap any stuff, or kill any chickens while you are a guest. This will be rare though and will be called Migrant Turnularity and will put your mortal
carcass in the wind just so you can hang somewhere else in somebody else's steaming heap of stuff instead of your own. Kids will love it of course, and will keep asking "are we their's yet" while they mill around checking out other folks' hovels and heaps of barter wampum.

What do people do for a living?
All sorts of things in addition to a couple of core skills. Guys who fly a helicopter to work as inventors today think of the man/machine singularity. These folks will dream of the Turnularity. The Turnularity is where all the folks in the village or a living hovel make a deal to rotate a turn among the productive adults wherein they spot the designated person some food and totally lay off their ass for a few days and let them chill so they don't lose it and hurt chickens and scream at everybody, and so they get in the mood to give someone else a little spell of Turnularity next.

Are they more happy/satisfied - less?
Most of the time they are too busy to think about it. When they do, they realize that people that have more than they do can't enjoy the Turnularity very much because they worry about people stealing their chickens and taking all of their nice crap while they are trying to chill.
What is the use of living if the quality of your Turnularity sucks like that?

Some of us from this forum will still be friends, I will send Plantagenet seeds from stuff that grows in Missouri for his green house and he will send me Alaskan mosquito jerky made from
the flank steaks from the mosquito flocks, (big as buzzards), that fly around in Alaska during the summer months. We will email back and forth about politics, but only in the winter so we can stay hot as a firecracker without having to burn something we can barter if we can save it until the spring gets here again.

[hillsidedigger]

Technology has peaked and in 50 years if the survivors which will only be a tiny fraction of 9 billion are living even a 12th. century lifestyle, I would be surprised. Almost all will be trying to grub a living out of the dirt.

[Pops]

This one is hard, AI, that is. Maybe I'm at an age where "new" doesn't always appear so improved.

My computer is in an entirely different world from the smart typewriter I used in the 70s, but still it doesn't do much in the way of anticipating my needs in any appreciable way. I'm sure it does lots of prefetching and caching and such but it is still as dumb as a hammer is till it gets thrown at a problem - then it still needs to be instructed what to do.

Stuart Staniford at Early Warning and TOD writes some about AI, this comparison of PO vs GCC vs AI was a good post I thought. Also Robots vs Relocalistas.

Advances in technology and efficiency are completely compatible with zero growth. In fact like six and dsula hashed out in the other thread, making nails in half the time using technology doesn't necessarily mean you need to make twice as many nails, you can simply make nails cheaper and so more widely available.

So, given some fraction of "modern" energy, a population "only" 30-50% greater than today and the benefit of 50 years of continuing refinement and innovation - which certainly will turn more and more toward energy efficiency, I think the world might look quite similar to today on the surface. After all, climate control and water heating consume 80% of residential energy use - we know how to reduce that to a fraction today. Daily commutes are a luxury 99% will simply no longer have - mixed use neighborhoods and telecomutes will be the norm.

Just like we now have many times the amount of "things" to occupy our brains and shopping carts that we had in 1960, by 2060 I'm going to say we'll have only have a fraction of the number of "things" but will be able to occupy our minds even more fruitfully. While even Kursweil thinks it will be more than 50 years to the ultimate singularity. But you'd have to be old enough to have looked through a card file, to gather a pile of books, to rifle through them for hours and eventually have given up the search for some fairly common piece of information to really understand just how amazing is the ability to tap just about any search phrase into that little box in the top of this window and get an instant answer.

I just don't know enough about nano to say much but I have very little faith that either nano or self replicating robots will have enough time to "evolve" in the face of a decelerating economy. That of course leaves it to us meat world beings to continue oiling the bearings and stocking the shelves. After all, we are self replicating.

None of this is to say technology will save us from energy and other constraints or that we don't have a good chance of screwing up this rosy vision of a retreat to the front by poisoning what's left of the world.

[Maddog78]

No great apocalypse in 50 years.
Natural gas will be the difference maker.
Nobody here except maybe shortie and Oilfinder2 even want to think about this.
There is a shit load of it left in the world. That is a technical term. A shit load.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'N')o great apocalypse in 50 years.
.....
Nobody here except maybe shortie and Oilfinder2 even want to think about this.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 't')he per capita energy consumption of the entire world is about the same as Nigeria today - 776 kgoe, which is right at 10% of per capita consumption in the US. (2003 numbers) - pretty generous of me I think.

...
How does the world look?
What do people do for a living?
Are they more happy/satisfied - less?

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'N')o great apocalypse in 50 years.
.....
Nobody here except maybe shortie and Oilfinder2 even want to think about this.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'N')o great apocalypse in 50 years.
Natural gas will be the difference maker.
Nobody here except maybe shortie and Oilfinder2 even want to think about this.
There is a shit load of it left in the world. That is a technical term. A shit load.

[efarmer]

Okay, a more serious post.

With the exception of the trend being more networking of closer to self sufficient living arrangements rather than centrally planned or traded socialist or capitalist behemoths (as we saw duke it out in the last century) I really can't say.

Oil was without a doubt the great game changer of the last century. Natural gas may be the game stretcher of the present century or not. But we are going to see what happens when oil is a liquid hydrocarbon feedstock way too precious to burn by then.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'N')o great apocalypse in 50 years.
Natural gas will be the difference maker.
Nobody here except maybe shortie and Oilfinder2 even want to think about this.
There is a shit load of it left in the world. That is a technical term. A shit load.

[Pops]

Actually this thread is about steady-state economies and technology, primarily artificial intelligence, hence the title. I just pulled, out of my ear, a lower average energy consumption than today for discussion but the primary variables are slowing population growth and increasing technology.

I'm interested to see nat gas discussed, just not here, please, this thread is about HAL 9000 and peak fractional banking.

[Pops]

Man, I miss some of the Old PO people.

I dredged this thread up with a search for "singularity" because I wanted to post this surprising piece from the IMF.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]AI may be on a trajectory to surpass human intelligence; we should be prepared

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have prompted leading researchers to project that the pace of current progress may not only be sustained but may even accelerate in coming years. In May 2023, Geoffrey Hinton, a computer scientist who laid the theoretical foundations of deep learning, described a significant shift in his perspective: “I have suddenly switched my views on whether these things are going to be more intelligent than us.” He conjectured that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—AI that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and perform any intellectual task a human being can perform—may be realized within a span of 5 to 20 years.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')This thread was about 2060, peaked population and depleted fossils. What about 2030, population still growing and fossils just beginning to decline?

[careinke]

Wow I missed this post! I was heavily involved in the 2010 Census at the time, so I'm guessing that's why I missed it. Anyway, I added my vote today, and chose option C. I'm pretty sure in 2010 my choice would have been for option A, with the survivors being Permaculturists.

At the time Pop's posted the survey, we were midterm for George Bush 43 and I was actively campaigning for Ron Paul. Bitcoin had been online for 1 1/2 years but I was unaware of its existence. I was sure the economy was going to collapse under the HUGE national debt (13.5 Trillion). I was hopeful the Patriot Act would finally be revoked no matter who won. I've always thought turning law enforcement into military units was a BAD idea, still do.

Today, the national debt is rising exponentially and will pass 34 Trillion within the next week. Today the country is more divided, more violent, and more poverty stricken since the great depression. The middle class is evaporating and the pay differential between the average worker and company CEO's have reached ridiculous levels. Property rights are quickly disappearing. It also appears Fracking and Methane have given us a little more time.

Historically, next year will be amazing. I'm glad I will be around to watch it unfold. Here are the things I will be watching:

1. Jan 3, 2024 will be the 15th anniversary of the genesis Bitcoin Block. Satoshi Nakamoto marked it with the headline from British newspaper The Times: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks

[Pops]

One change over the last 10 years verses the previous 10 is that the labor force participation has declined from nearly 67% of population in 2000 to a little over 60% now. According to google AI this is due to aging population, early retirement due to covid (I fit both of those descriptions) reluctance to go back to the office, and men not working.

I would add that automation and digital assistance / internet have already eliminated many jobs.

In the same respect, the corporate world is consolidating. Amazon for example owns 40% of online retail and 10% of total US retail, Walmart about 7%. In my little town those 2 probably control 80% combined and that little only because there is a big truck stop on the interstate.

And those trucks are hauling more and more stuff made elsewhere.

Another large influence in the last century was women entering the workforce, and more education being required. The percentage of uneducated men in the workforce has been falling since WWII.


So, the numbers of people not wanting a job they qualify for or discouraged because they can't get into the corporate suite are rising. They feel they are above the laborious work relegated to Mexicans and perhaps want wages higher than employers think they should pay (LOL, sounds funny writing that—when did employers ever think wages were too low?). As a result, the "unemployed" number is low. At the same time, pressure at the border is high... those people are getting work, and I just have to guess their future employers are happy to have them. You could blame too generous covid benefits too.

One last data point, I saw a story today pointing out that the birth rate is back to pre-pandemic levels. Could be just a bounce, we'll see.

All those influences point to incentivising owners to pursue AI and automation quickly. Come to think of it, Bidens money for new factories could easily work against the unions he embraces as the new factories will surely use just as much automation as possible.

That's the thing, I may use AI to make some images and incrementally displace some guy selling pictures to iStock or Getty but that is a "soft" replacement. Similar too, and of course less critical than say, an AI used to detect tumors on a lung scan. Where AI and lesser robotics will finish the job started by globalized trade will be on the factory floor, jobsite, interstate. For some short period, 5-20 years maybe, humans will be augmented by AI (as I am now) and the human's productivity will rise. But then the AI will learn and become more proficient, faster and cheaper than the human.

and way before 2060...
.