[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbruning', 'I') want to thank you Shortonsense for your participation in this discussion. Usually I have a hard time stomaching how you get your point across, and have held a less than shining opinion of you for it....perhaps I am mistaken. This conversation was worthwhile and I know people in general are more willing to complain than compliment so I thought I'd throw out a Good Job

[Pops]

So, after that little interlude...

We start to see that the leader of the free world has decided to use The Leak to start talking about - ahem! Increasingly difficult oil extraction:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Associated Press', 'S')eizing on a disastrous oil spill to advance a cause, President Barack Obama on Wednesday called on Congress to roll back billions of dollars in tax breaks for oil and pass a clean-energy bill that he says would help the nation end its dependence on fossil fuels.

[Newfie]

I listened to a James Hanson interview the other day and he said that Obama doesn't "get it" about climate change. Yet Hansen says that we can't burn all the oil reserves without eliciting a Venus effect.

It kind of sounds to me like Obama does "get it." But he is a politician and he can get only so far out in front of the population. Kinda like leading an ox, you gotta do it from up close, not too far.

So, BRAVO to President Obama. I wish him well.

[sparky]

.

For me the best proof of Peak Oil is the rather frantic search for new deposits ,
ultra deep water drilling would be an insane display of technical wizzardry only a decade ago

meanwhile the output of shallow water fields in the U.S.are decreasing from 300Mbd in 1997
to 100 Mbd last year
deep water from 550 Mbd in 2003 to less than 400 last year

This is not only in the U.S ,
Tupis was a monster drill over the edge of the continental shelf ,2km dept and 7km drilled
BP drilled the Tiber field in 2.5km water dept, the well itself, at 11km drilled is close to the absolute record ,the Russian Kola drill which was on land

It would not make any economic sense if the search for oil wasn't desperate

[Newfie]

Thanks for that info.

But the problem is that so few people understand the situation. I think that is the complaint about the MSM. It takes hitting these blokes repeatedly over the head with a simple idea to public of even the most basic issues.

MSM is beating them with a wet noodle on alternate Thursdays.

[evilgenius]

How the public will react is an interesting question. We can't be certain, first off, if the reaction will be uniform or broken into groups. One thing that might help anticipate the reaction is to look at how the people have reacted to the recession. In America there has arisen a huge movement that proposes that evil banksters are responsible. There is some truth in that, opportunistic greed exacerbating a problem where the root cause is human nature, but that truth has been taken way out of proportion to the situation. Imagine trying to tell anyone a year before the crash not to 'invest' in property. What any banker thought would have been your last worry as they came after you. Yeah, now imagine trying to tell anyone to conserve like we know people will have to. Basically, the problem is with the people. They don't want to hear about it. Worse, as long as the rich nations have it within their power to cripple the energy consuming capacity of the poor and weak nations until their people can't insulate themselves any longer they will do it.

Somebody like Obama, if he gets too far out in front of the curve, will become an enemy, not a hero. He is already an enemy on the financial front as far as the Tea Party/Bilderburger/Trilateral Commissionists think. He will probably wind up an enemy for them again as they vainly begin to blame big oil and big finance for peak oil as it gains momentum. The real problem is that people are always willing to look for fault everywhere but inside themselves.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'S')omebody like Obama, if he gets too far out in front of the curve, will become an enemy, not a hero.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'f') you're as angry about the spill as you ought to be, then stop fretting about the president's emotions. Buy less gas. Drive less. Conserve electricity. Until Americans break our fossil fuel habit, we're trapped -- regardless of whether Obama starts feeling our pain on camera.

[MattS]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')

For me the best proof of Peak Oil is the rather frantic search for new deposits ,
ultra deep water drilling would be an insane display of technical wizzardry only a decade ago

[smiley]

I wouldn't get too excited. So PO is getting its 15 minutest of fame (In our current hype society it will probably no more than 5), but next year it will be the same as last years pop idol, lingering in the back of everyones mind.

True, in the past we have tackled some important issues through media created awareness. For instance the hole in the ozone layer, acid rain and dioxines. These were single issues, backed by comprehendible scientific data, and with a clear cause of action.

Problem with both climate change and peakoil is:
- The scientific data is disputable - the timing is unclear.
- The course of mitigation is unclear.
- The concequences are uncertain.
- There are strong forces acting to get PO off the agenda by playing these uncertainties.

The hole in the ozon layer, could be basically captured in a single sentence "Replace your refridgerator and your hairspray or you will be fried in a few summers time". Even though the scientific evidence for this statement was perhaps not so well developed as people might think, it was an issue which easily caught on and acted upon. Industry did some half-baked attempts to reverse public opinion, but they realised earlyon that it was a lost fight. I think a major component of that "victory" was that this issue came out of nowere, and captured the imagination of the people even before the industries involved had time to develop a media strategy. Another major component was the fact that people understand the concept of a hole, and you have to convince no one that a thousand square kilometer hole is a pretty big problem.

Now try this for peak oil: "Based on reserve statistics we conclude that you should reduce your carbon foot print, through measures we do not exactly agree on, or in the future (which might start now or in 20 years time), you or your children will experience the effects, which we think will scale somewhere from bad to very bad (althoug we haven got a clue of what exactly will happen)".

That is not going to work. The BP/Transocean spill, how tragic in itself, only presses the case for safer drilling (and is doing a pretty good job in doing that) but not much more.

I think the best thing we can hope for is another reserve scandal, coinciding with a fuel shortage. Because then you can make the case: "Hey these guys are lying about their reserves, and so is everyone. You're running on empty and if you don't buy a bicycle now, you'll be walking to work shortly."

[quadzillajim]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '
')I think the best thing we can hope for is another reserve scandal, coinciding with a fuel shortage. Because then you can make the case: "Hey these guys are lying about their reserves, and so is everyone. You're running on empty and if you don't buy a bicycle now, you'll be walking to work shortly."

[Pops]

It doesn't need to be complicated, even the NYT gets it:

Imagining Life Without Oil, and Being Ready - New York Times -
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or Mrs. Wilkerson, 33, a moderate Democrat from Oakton, Va., who designs computer interfaces, the spill reinforced what she had been obsessing over for more than a year — that oil use was outstripping the world’s supply.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')t doesn't need to be complicated, even the NYT gets it:

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')t doesn't need to be complicated, even the NYT gets it:

[blueskyday]

Hi all, I'm Jennifer Wilkerson, that girl in the NY Times article. I feel like I just came out of the peak oil closet. Was I really just a part of taking peak oil mainstream? That can't be right - I have so far to go, so much to do. (And that isn't a proper stockpile of food.) I'm just a 9-5 worker and mom who became aware of the issues, and boy did that awareness knock me sideways! I became really, really depressed and I expect that others in the midst of their eat-work-sleep-play 'normal' lives will have to experience the stages of grief as well and if they got past denial, it would be a miracle. When I tried to talk to people about the possibility that we could be running out of oil, they looked at me like I might be in need of some meds.

I have found that by talking about how this makes me feel, other people talk about their feelings too and the conversation goes somewhere. When I try to talk about the facts, people shoot back with facts or ask for some evidence. Since I'm not an expert, I usually find myself at a loss for words and facts at the right time.

It's a little like a nutrition story - if the mainstream media says that 'food x' is bad for you, I can tell other people about the article and they believe me - I don't have to be a nutritionist to convince them. But as an average citizen, I really don't have the power to say 'food x' is bad for you and have people believe me until the mainstream media says so. Did the NY Times come out and say that oil supplies are peaking? No. Did the article do any harm? I don't know - too soon to tell. But my non-peak-oil-aware friends read it and read my response...and they were inspired....but mostly by my response and not by the NY Times article. If nothing else, I hope that by 'setting fire to my own life', a few more people will come out of the peak oil closet, and maybe this whole conversation will become more mainstream and mature and less threatening to people.

Here's my response: http://blueskyday.com/2010/06/06/repons ... ork-times/

[Pops]

Hi Blue!

Kudos to you for having the nerve to talk about po. What I found best about the story is that you came off as the average gal, not some bunkerized weirdo raving about tin-foil conspiracies and automatic weapons.

'I wanted to run to the country but decided it was the wrong course' - is another line I'm glad you got in! Run for the hills is not a viable plan for many but is an excuse and argument against any change of lifestyle for most people- I can't do that so I won't do anything or Look at those fools, I'll show them by not changing at all seem the most common responses.

I think you did great, the usual tack the MSM tries to take is the spectacular - the wild-eyed survivalist and you didn't appear that way at all, good for you!

Welcome to po.com!

[Newfie]

Yes, welcome aboard. Good to have another voice and another perspective here.

[Pops]

Globe and Mail:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he ecological nightmare that BP has unleashed has put the spotlight on the deep water oil drilling that for a while seemed to have peak oil theorists eating crow. Now we can all see in vivid images the cost of oil dependency: dying oil-soaked birds, choking fish and beaches covered in gooey gobs of oil.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('blueskyday', 'H')i all, I'm Jennifer Wilkerson, that girl in the NY Times article. I feel like I just came out of the peak oil closet.

[sparky]

.
In the news one can find quite often round about mention of the problem
without any name attached to it
A nice one here in Australia was a Labor minister mentioning the
".... increasing difficulty to maintain future production... "

The public has developed a strong rejection to news of doom ,
that is perfectly correct
nobody really want to get depressed by a vague and bleak future
mentioning the magic word PEAK OIL is a big turn off ,
it's a protection mechanism for the folks ,
but if you tell them the stuff is running out fast ,they nod in complete agreement ,
it's a bit like predicting an Earthquake in San Francisco
while people are OK with the fact , they have everyday concern and cowering in fear is not practical

the people walking around with signs peddling "the end of the world as we know it " are not listened to , but I've found the concept to be pretty well accepted now ,
after all it is inevitable and there is no solution ,
so no need to worry , when it happen , people will deal with it then and there .
.