[seahorse2]

What effect, if any, will there be on future GOM oil production forecasts with the loss of the Deep Horizon rig?

I tried to find out how many deep water rigs there are but didn't find much. Did see that there aren't enough right now.

http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Deepwater_Oil_Exploration

[hillsidedigger]

What does this tell us about possible future deepwater production like from the modest fields recently reported to be discovered off the coast of Brazil?

Very little such oil will ever make it to market.

[heroineworshipper]

There won't be any more GOM production. It's going to be Iran & Venuzuela's game.

[seahorse2]

I'm sure this particular rigg was leased out for many future projects. I'm simply wondering how many of those projects there were and if there will be a way for other rigs to make up for the loss of this rig? Based on the article I linked, it appears that there is a shortage of these rigs and I would gather it would be difficult to make up for the loss of this rig. I'm just guessing it takes a long time to make one of these rigs and get it into operation.

[TheDude]

It won't affect GOM production in the short term according to Salazar. Salazar: Pulling back on Gulf of Mexico oil production would have a ‘huge’ economic impact - The Hill's E2-Wire.

Given that he's worried about the impact on the economy as it "comes out" of the recession by the time GDP is truly back on its feet no one will care anymore.

I see that you had another question in mind, however, so here's Transocean's List by Rig Type. Just their own rigs, of course, but they're kings of the hill so extrapolate accordingly. Deepwater Horizon was 1 of 23 ultra-deepwater rigs, capable of operating >7.5k feet. Wiki says they have a fleet of 136 vessels total. Transocean - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[rockdoc123]

Rigs of this variety are very expensive to build so the main challenge is whether or not the rig company sees enough future use. Although deep and ultra deep water drilling has picked up in the past few years there really aren't many of these sorts of wells drilled each year. The real determining factor here , I believe, is what the actual regulatory fallout might be as a consequence of this dissaster. Ultradeep water drilling toys with the fringe of marginal economics all the time. If there are regulatory changes that increase costs then there will almost certainly be less wells drilled. Also regulatory changes may take a few rigs out of commission for sometime in order to effect repairs, upgrades etc.
I suspect Transocean was fully insured on the rig (not self insured like BP is ) so they will almost certainly look to replace it. I can't remember the timelines on building these things but I believe it is somewhere between 1 and 2 years from tender to commissioning.

[Plantagenet]

Atwater Oceanics has a new deepwater rig coming online in the next few months --- it took around two years to build.

This disaster will probably stop offshore drilling in the US for a while, but I doubt it will stop the ongoing work off Mexico, Brazil, Norway, Nigeria and other prospects

[Tanada]

If you take the Obama Administration at face value there will not be any new drilling in the GOM or elsewhere offshore until an exhaustive investigation has taken place. That could require years of investigation, study, reporting and reviewing before a 'blue ribbon panel' approves new offshore drilling.

If you take two years of exploration and development off the table it will have a very large impact on USA production in the next decade.

[eXpat]

Offshore drilling in not in fashion (politically) anymore...
Senator Reid seeks offshore drilling re-examination
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith President Barack Obama planning to open vast stretches of the coastline to oil and gas drilling, Reid said the worsening spill should be considered in any expansion.

"This terrible event will, undoubtedly, require us to re-examine how we extract our nation's offshore energy resources and will have to be taken into consideration with any legislation that proposes to open new areas to development," Reid, a Democrat, said in a statement.

The stalled climate change bill was expected to have provisions to spur expansion of offshore drilling, in a bid to shore up votes from Republicans.

The White House acknowledged on Thursday that the spill could force the president to rethink plans to increase offshore oil drilling, an essential component of legislative efforts to stem global warming.

Administration officials said Obama could change his support for the plan, depending on what was found to have caused the rig blast last week off Louisiana that left 11 workers missing, presumed dead, and led to the huge slick.

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'O')ffshore drilling in not in fashion (politically) anymore...
Senator Reid seeks offshore drilling re-examination
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The White House acknowledged on Thursday that the spill could force the president to rethink plans to increase offshore oil drilling, an essential component of legislative efforts to stem global warming.
.

[GoghGoner]

Looking at the 2009 graph by the MMS, deepwater production was expected to not only offset declining shallow-water but even increase overall production. With the high water-cut at Thunderhorse and this epic fail, those predictions are probably way off. We should actually be able to compare the MMS prediction against reality during 2010.

[seahorse2]

Based on the above comments, I'm assuming that the loss of this one rig would not have really set back GOM production.

Politically, maybe it will. Unfortunately, that's why the American people should have fear instilled with them concerning PO, their way of life etc. This is where I differ with the optimists on the issue of PO. If PO is a political problem, then politics may sink us on this issue. If the American people as a whole were "scared" of PO, they wouldn't worry about the fallout from this rig disaster and wouldn't stop offshore development. However, since the American people are basically ignorant of PO and energy in general, it seems to me likely that they will stop further offshore development in the US. So, our general ignorance can paint us into a corner and make our situation worse, not better.

[dinopello]

If the environmental and related economic disaster is profound, this event may the catalyst for a real conversation about our need for this energy. Why must we take these risks with our environment ? Especially if that EIA "World's Liquids" chart is believed by the masses (the one showing the cliff that has been circulating recently). We need the energy, we need the fish, so what's the plan ?

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'O')ffshore drilling in not in fashion (politically) anymore...
Senator Reid seeks offshore drilling re-examination
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The White House acknowledged on Thursday that the spill could force the president to rethink plans to increase offshore oil drilling, an essential component of legislative efforts to stem global warming.
.

[Revi]

I agree with you Wild Rose. Why can't we adapt to less oil? It's going to happen anyway, whether or not they do a lot more deepwater drilling.

We should use this as a wake up call.

Time to quit business as usual and learn to live with less oil.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The White House acknowledged on Thursday that the spill could force the president to rethink plans to increase offshore oil drilling, an essential component of legislative efforts to stem global warming.

[GoghGoner]

Oil Tops $100 for 2018 on Threat From BP Spill: Energy Markets

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��By 2016 to 2018, there could be some significant impact on the supply standpoint,” said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York, who said a moratorium on new drilling, his worst-case scenario, would cause a shortfall of 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day. “They wouldn’t be able to offset depletion with new drilling.”

[americandream]

Drilling for crude to stem global warming!

Did they really say that!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The White House acknowledged on Thursday that the spill could force the president to rethink plans to increase offshore oil drilling, an essential component of legislative efforts to stem global warming.

[Pops]

Annual and Monthly GOM production charts at Gregor.us

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'D')rilling for crude to stem global warming!

Did they really say that!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The White House acknowledged on Thursday that the spill could force the president to rethink plans to increase offshore oil drilling, an essential component of legislative efforts to stem global warming.