[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'A')p the point was more some here are quick to latch onto Rockman because you agree with him but trash maddog when he tells you about decades of cheap natural gas.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'A')p the point was more some here are quick to latch onto Rockman because you agree with him but trash maddog when he tells you about decades of cheap natural gas.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', ' ') I find it hilarious that folks accuse of2 of " pumping" oil with no proof that he has any connection to the oil biz. Then you have rockman an admitted petro geologist who directly benefits from advertising oil "scarcity". Yet noone ever questions his motives????

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')While I've been gone I see pstarr is continuing with his practice of telling outright lies.
You know I'm not an accountant.
Some things never change on peakoil.com

[Maddog78]

Like I stated when I was here before we hedged %70 of our production at 6 bucks and that is enough to keep us going strong despite the naysayers like farmerjimmcgowan and others.

We are ramping up again as are many other n.g. producers.
A new rig starting next month in my area and I've been assisting our new Op. Manager get his team together to kick off in the Marcellus. We will have 4 rigs running there shortly and most likely 4 more by the end of the year.
Many other n.g. producers are picking up the rigs they laid off last year.
I know service providers like Halliburton etc. are bringing back many of the people they laid off.
Seems like a lot of people have decided they can make money at 6 bucks.


I just popped in to see how I did on the oil price prediction thread.
2nd. Not bad. The ol' cornutroll showed the doomers how it's done.

Sorry short, I don't plan to stick around. I've been very busy and it was getting pretty boring refuting some of the more extreme peakers and doomers on this board.

[rangerone314]

So since oil is in no danger of peaking cornies (or hasn't already), when do we get back to oil prices of 1998 when the averaged around $12/bbl?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'S')o since oil is in no danger of peaking cornies (or hasn't already), when do we get back to oil prices of 1998 when the averaged around $12/bbl?

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'S')o since oil is in no danger of peaking cornies (or hasn't already), when do we get back to oil prices of 1998 when the averaged around $12/bbl?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')n the contrary, prices have been rather stable with the exception of several specific events, 1973 OPEC embargo, the 1979 Iran/Iraq war, and the 2005-2008 peak.

[AirlinePilot]

Short, nice try, but by all measures except for that period around 79 and the blips during the first Gulf War, and the recent volatility, oil has been extremely cheap. Coloring it some other way is obfuscating the facts. The chart doesn't lie. Since 1947 on that chart..60 years.... you have only a few years where the price was above 40$/bbl until the recent climb which started after 2000 or so.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')hort, nice try, but by all measures except for that period around 79 and the blips during the first Gulf War, and the recent volatility, oil has been extremely cheap. Coloring it some other way is obfuscating the facts.

[BrazilianPO]

Interesting article. The most striking slide is page 7, where it says that the world decline in existing fields is equivalent to one Saudi Arabia every two years.

Well, the document is very long, but another interesting point is the creation of a spin-off company, called Petro-Sal, which will take care of the new fields found in RIo de Janeiro's coast in the "Pre-Sal" area. In simple terms, all new concessions are cancelled from now on. Everything will be owned and explored by Petro-Sal. Looks like Brazil will keep 72% of the area to itself.

Even though I am living in Australia, I have been to Brazil just a few weeks ago, to Rio, and I saw at least three oil rigs in Guanabara Bay, plus one being towed to sea in front of Copacabana beach. There has been a lot of activity and in the press you only see Petrobras. Interesting as well is that this is an election year there and if the right-wing party wins (which I doubt), there will be a push to privatize Petrobras. There has been some right-wing newspapers (O Globo, mostly), posting very negative articles about Petrobras, uncovering supposedly corruption scandals, and "demonstrating" how Petrobras is inneficient, etc. Well, anyway, if the right wins, this issue will fire up quickly.

As a Brazilian/Australian, I would like Petrobras to be kept as a state-owned company. It is perhaps the only example of a well-run state company in Latin America.

Walking on the streets you see a lot of "O Petroleo e nosso" stickers on cars, windows, light poles, throughout the city etc. (Translation: The Oil is Ours)

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrazilianPO', 'I')nteresting article. The most striking slide is page 7, where it says that the world decline in existing fields is equivalent to one Saudi Arabia every two years.

[vtsnowedin]

Wrong thread .Sorry

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')n the contrary, prices have been rather stable with the exception of several specific events, 1973 OPEC embargo, the 1979 Iran/Iraq war, and the 2005-2008 peak.

[misterno]

you guys first understand that the demand has two components

one is the physical demand and the other is paper demand

As long as we do not know how the composition of these two makes up the whole, we are just speculating here

In other words, price of oil may have nothing to do with PHYSICAL DEMAND

Keep this in mind

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'y')ou guys first understand that the demand has two components

one is the physical demand and the other is paper demand

As long as we do not know how the composition of these two makes up the whole, we are just speculating here

In other words, price of oil may have nothing to do with PHYSICAL DEMAND

Keep this in mind

[misterno]

I have never seen Petrobras mentioning high depletion rates in their mature fields before.

Here is the article

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... _whatsNews

A senior executive at Brazil's Petróleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, blamed rising costs at the company on higher imports of refined oil products and maintenance shutdowns at some of its oil facilities.

In an interview, Petrobras' Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa highlighted the problem of high depletion rates at some of the state-owned energy company's mature oil fields in the Campos Basin, but said it was working on new technologies to stabilize output there.


Bloomberg News

Petrobas is working on technology that could boost output at mature oil fields, says CFO Almir Barbassa, shown above in São Paulo in March.
.Petrobras earlier this week reported that its second-quarter profit rose 32% from year-ago levels to 10.94 billion reais ($6.88 billion). But an increase in costs meant it was unable to fully benefit from a sharp rise in global oil prices, which reached a high of $127 a barrel in April.

Part of that was because Petrobras was forced to import more oil products such as jet fuel, diesel, gasoline and naphtha, which it doesn't produce enough of to satisfy domestic demand, Mr. Barbassa said. Also, some of the company's offshore production platforms had to be shut during the quarter for maintenance.

Another factor was the rising cost of arresting production declines in some of Petrobras' older fields. Depletion in the mature offshore fields of the Campos Basin, which account for more than half of Petrobras' domestic production, has been accelerating since early 2009, and in some places is as high as 20% a year, according to analysts at Credit Suisse.

For years, Petrobras has been injecting water into the Campos fields to keep flagging oil output stable. But that can sometimes lead to a higher water content in the oil that is produced. Mr. Barbassa said Petrobras is working on a new kind of device which will separate the water from the oil before it reaches the production platform. "If it works well, then it will revolutionize production and output from the Campos Basin will increase," he said.

Petrobras is spending $224.7 billion over five years to develop a series of massive offshore oil fields that lie beneath a thick layer of salt under the ocean floor—the biggest investment program in the oil industry. One field, Lula, the largest discovery in Brazil's history, is estimated to hold recoverable reserves of between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of oil. But output from these fields has been slow to ramp up and Petrobras is still heavily reliant on its older fields.

Weighing on Petrobras' second-quarter earnings was a 2.28 billion reais loss in its refining and transport division. State policy in Brazil dictates that Petrobras has to keep its gasoline and diesel prices fixed, which prevented it from passing on rising global oil prices to consumers.

But Mr. Barbassa says that the policy has, more often than not, worked in Petrobras' favor. "Up to the end of last year we had better prices in Brazil than abroad," he said. He defended the pricing policy, saying it means "a more stable cash flow for the company and consumers don't suffer the consequences of volatile prices."