[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he biggest surprise post peak is that people won't even notice we're past peak. Nor will they care.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 't')he corn at the grocery I work for is .89 cent an ear.

[seahorse2]

We are at a production plateau without a decline. So, how has that affected us, what do we see? We see political changes and economic changes to reflect a production plateau.

(1) One could argue resource wars in the ME, that at the heart of US policy in the ME is the Carter Doctrine and thus we are fighting two wars in the ME bc the ultimate interest in the area is to protect access to energy (Klare's thesis in "Blood for Oil", a great read);

(2) We see recession;

(3) We see a highly volatile political situation internally in the US and externally (arguably the beginning of trade wars, currency manipulation etc);

(4) a growing disparity in the "haves" versus the "have nots" - aka loss of the middle class in the US discussed by Kaplan in "The Coming Anarchy" and another read of his "Was Democracy a Moment" link here http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/97dec/democ.htm

(5) as pointed out earlier, we see a "green" president and "green" Secretary of Energy now openly admitting that alternatives are not a substitute for fossil fuels (not in our lifetimes) and opening drilling off coast in the US and beginning the first nuclear plants in decades (all good moves in my opinion, but the first recognition there is a problem on the horizon).

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')s us diehard peakers now know, our world changed in the recent past from a happy and wonderful pre peak world to the horrifying reality of the post peak world we now live in. The exact timing of the most recent peak isn't critical to this question, just the concept that its been a done deal for 5 or 2 years now, depending on your choice of what "oil" is mostly.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', '
')(5) as pointed out earlier, we see a "green" president and "green" Secretary of Energy now openly admitting that alternatives are not a substitute for fossil fuels (not in our lifetimes) and opening drilling off coast in the US and beginning the first nuclear plants in decades (all good moves in my opinion, but the first recognition there is a problem on the horizon).

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')s us diehard peakers now know, our world changed in the recent past from a happy and wonderful pre peak world to the horrifying reality of the post peak world we now live in. The exact timing of the most recent peak isn't critical to this question, just the concept that its been a done deal for 5 or 2 years now, depending on your choice of what "oil" is mostly.

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'W')ell known peakers have been calling the peak for half a decade now....certainly the information available hasn't made liars out of them....yet....or....again.

[thuja]

Some of you may remember how pundits were discussing oil prices in 2005- but back then the thought of 100$/barrel oil was nearly unimaginable and cause for great concern. OIl had been trading in the teens for much of the 90's and still mostly only averaged in the 20's- 40's up to 2005.

Back then even hitting 50/barrel was a pretty big deal.

Now a scant five years later and we're at 85 $ a barrel and I don't feel near the same level of concern than I did from back then. So this would be my second greatest surprise. The first one is that we could even achieve 85$/barrel in a deeply recessionary environment. And my second surprise would be that most of the pundits don't seem to be that concerned.

Perhaps I'll be wrong as we push 100 again but so far...not much.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')s us diehard peakers now know, our world changed in the recent past from a happy and wonderful pre peak world to the horrifying reality of the post peak world we now live in. The exact timing of the most recent peak isn't critical to this question, just the concept that its been a done deal for 5 or 2 years now, depending on your choice of what "oil" is mostly.

[thuja]

Wow- I swear my last post was not ripped off from the recent Forbes article but here they are saying almost the exact same thing...except they say the pundits were freaking out about 80$ barrel oil...



"Time was, not so long ago, that energy economists and pundits went practically apoplectic at the thought that oil might cost $80 a barrel. That's a price the world seems blissfully unexcited about today. The magic $100 number will change all that, reviving and reshaping long-standing debates around every aspect of energy policy."

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/05/transo ... mills.html



Here's another key point that many of us PO observers have made...

"The oil price hiatus of the past couple of years came from the global recession (demand reduction) not from a supply increase from oil, or alternatives to oil. The past two years eviscerated 6 million barrels per day of Western oil demand. The emerging economies are of course the entirely new factor in the century-plus world oil market. At the same time as industrial-world demand collapsed, oil use in emerging economies grew some 5 million daily barrels per day. "


So I am left wondering what will happen when the global economy starts to rev up again- how quickly will high oil prices decimate the economy and send us spiraling back into recession?

[dinopello]

Surprise ? I think it's going as most had predicted. Heinburg in "End of Suburbia" had said the peak would be difficult to notice at first as it will manifest as a series of economic downturns followed by recovery, following by energy price increases followed by downturns, rinse and repeat. Obama's "drill baby drill" shuld not be surprising as he had said OCS exploration was something we needed to consider during the campaign and had said Nuclear is needed at the same time while also saying he believed we go from "shock to trance" etc.

Meanwhile, my elected officials are all over it as indicated in policy priotities they elaborated this year (and similar in previous years).

Chairman of our County Board says

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or most, we take energy for granted. We flip a switch, plug a cord in an outlet, or fill the car at the gas station. Yet there is growing concern about the sustainability of our communities and our quality of life, because of our reliance on carbon-based fuels for our energy.

For our country, there is a compelling need to stop the dependency cycle of borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Middle East while destroying our collective environment. As our own Tom Whipple has warned, the time at which oil demand outstrips supply – peak oil – is near.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'W')ell known peakers have been calling the peak for half a decade now....certainly the information available hasn't made liars out of them....yet....or....again.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Well known peakers have been calling the peak for half a decade now....certainly the information available hasn't made liars out of them....yet....or....again.

[americandream]

My biggest surprise thus far is the wide spread prevalence of the bonehead mentality, that has led and continues to lead vast numbers of Western households into unsustainable credit driven lifestyles, in other areas such as the use of global resources and economic growth. Whats even more stunning is the Morris dance of euphoria as China and India join us in the rush to the cliff edge. When Lovelock laments capitalism's hubristic tendencies, he is so on the mark.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')s us diehard peakers now know, our world changed in the recent past from a happy and wonderful pre peak world to the horrifying reality of the post peak world we now live in. The exact timing of the most recent peak isn't critical to this question, just the concept that its been a done deal for 5 or 2 years now, depending on your choice of what "oil" is mostly.

Now, I believe that each of us undoubtedly had a scenario or a concept in our minds about what a post peak world might look like, ranging from zombieland to renewable energy utopia.

So of all the wild and exciting changes which have taken place since peak oil happened, which has been the biggest SURPRISE? What one thing which you were SURE of, just didn't work out like you had figured?

Doesn't have to be a big thing, it can be a little thing, like someone must have thought that NASCAR would go belly up, there is just no way that racing gas guzzling billboards, let alone hauling them around the country in fleets of tractor-trailers, week in and week out, could survive peak oil, just no way!

Seeing as how I am as peaker as anyone else, I shall go first. In the interest of full disclosure, my surprise has been influenced by having been through one of these things before.

I have been absolutely floored, just stunned silent, by how little real gasoline prices here in America had to rise to cause the average American to react in a vocal and visible way (bitching and whining, blaming big oil, buying smaller cars, etc etc ). I would have bet my bottom dollar that enough Americans remembered the gasoline shortages and rationing and whatnot from the 70's to not be surprised, to have prepared in advance, to KNOW that sooner or later, such things would happen again, and to have a higher tolerance for the price increases.

So thats my biggest surprise, that a real gasoline price not really worse than the last one would cause the same types and volume of complaint...what I WOULD have expected is that the spikes in the 70's would have innoculated Americans much better, and therefore their full throated complaints and behavior change would have required a much higher real price of gasoline. Based on the chart I used, I would speculate that the bitching took place at about the same real price of gasoline....effectively no innoculation at all.

Here's a chart of real gasoline prices I was looking at when thinking about this.

http://www.inflationdata.com/Inflation/ ... _chart.htm

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'M')y biggest surprise thus far is the wide spread prevalence of the bonehead mentality, that has led and continues to lead vast numbers of Western households into unsustainable credit driven lifestyles, in other areas such as the use of global resources and economic growth.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')You only speculate in commodities that you think will rise in price, and that comes from demand overtaking supply.