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How do you define "dieoff"?
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How do you define "dieoff"?
by Narz » Sun 21 Mar 2010, 22:10:21
Is it merely declining population (like in Japan) or is there something else involved? Cause merely a slower reproduction than death rate isn't very doomtastic.
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Re: How do you define "dieoff"?
by IslandCrow » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 02:41:05
I think your example is more correctly termed 'die-back'. 'Die-off' involves a significant decrease in population, or collapse in population, associated with a raised death rate (war, famine, plague etc). Japan's situation is more due to falling birth rate than rising death rate.
I am not sure what % figure to give to 'significnat decrease', but I am sure that a biological definition will have a much higher figure than what my emotions would consider a 'die-off'.
If comparing countries, Russia (or some other former USSR bits) has a raised death rate, and decreasing population. In Russia's case it is estimated at 0,3% decrease a year. While being closer to die-off than Japan I guess that in biological terms this no where near a collapse in population levels.
For me the big question is that while I see that there will have to be smaller populations in a Post Peak Oil world, can some areas get there through a more gentel 'die-back'? I assume that some parts might well see a collapse in population, due to high population density, low food production and war...but does this have to apply to all parts of this world? In Japan's case the population density seem to be high compared to food production capacities, but if the second half of the oil age is long enough will their natural population decrease allow them to survive without a die-off?
I am not sure what % figure to give to 'significnat decrease', but I am sure that a biological definition will have a much higher figure than what my emotions would consider a 'die-off'.
If comparing countries, Russia (or some other former USSR bits) has a raised death rate, and decreasing population. In Russia's case it is estimated at 0,3% decrease a year. While being closer to die-off than Japan I guess that in biological terms this no where near a collapse in population levels.
For me the big question is that while I see that there will have to be smaller populations in a Post Peak Oil world, can some areas get there through a more gentel 'die-back'? I assume that some parts might well see a collapse in population, due to high population density, low food production and war...but does this have to apply to all parts of this world? In Japan's case the population density seem to be high compared to food production capacities, but if the second half of the oil age is long enough will their natural population decrease allow them to survive without a die-off?
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Re: How do you define "dieoff"?
by Tanada » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 06:31:45
Scientifically a dieoff is a sudden sharply defined decrease in population. If every woman in Japan who is of child baring age decided today to have a child the population would boom.
On the other hand if 10% of the population died from Influenza in a period of a few months that would be a dieoff. Normal causes are famine and disease vectors that are opportunistic in attacking weakened members of the resulting population. Man made causes like War rarely achieve dieoff proportions directly, usually if it happens it is a result of famine caused by wartime disruption leading to disease outbreaks. Of course with the weapons we have available since the 1940's this is no longer the case, nerve agents and nuclear weapons could both cause a dieoff in the targeted population. Fortunately we have been smart enough so far to avoid using either on a wide scale.
On the other hand if 10% of the population died from Influenza in a period of a few months that would be a dieoff. Normal causes are famine and disease vectors that are opportunistic in attacking weakened members of the resulting population. Man made causes like War rarely achieve dieoff proportions directly, usually if it happens it is a result of famine caused by wartime disruption leading to disease outbreaks. Of course with the weapons we have available since the 1940's this is no longer the case, nerve agents and nuclear weapons could both cause a dieoff in the targeted population. Fortunately we have been smart enough so far to avoid using either on a wide scale.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: How do you define "dieoff"?
by Ludi » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 06:58:28
Main Entry: die–off
Pronunciation: \ˈdī-ˌȯf\
Function: noun
Date: 1936
: a sudden sharp decline of a population of animals or plants that is not caused directly by human activity
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/die-off
Pronunciation: \ˈdī-ˌȯf\
Function: noun
Date: 1936
: a sudden sharp decline of a population of animals or plants that is not caused directly by human activity
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/die-off
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Re: How do you define "dieoff"?
by rangerone314 » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 13:05:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'M')ain Entry: die–off
Pronunciation: \ˈdī-ˌȯf\
Function: noun
Date: 1936
: a sudden sharp decline of a population of animals or plants that is not caused directly by human activity
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/die-off
all dieoff today is caused by humans. No animal population anywhere on the planet is not directly impacted (and thus reduced) by man's impacts.Pronunciation: \ˈdī-ˌȯf\
Function: noun
Date: 1936
: a sudden sharp decline of a population of animals or plants that is not caused directly by human activity
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/die-off
Ironically, in areas where there has been depopulation like in parts of Sudan, animals and habitat have started to recover.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right
Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take
You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown
Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take
You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown
Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: How do you define "dieoff"?
by Ludi » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 13:58:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'M')ain Entry: die–off
Pronunciation: \ˈdī-ˌȯf\
Function: noun
Date: 1936
: a sudden sharp decline of a population of animals or plants that is not caused directly by human activity
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/die-off
all dieoff today is caused by humans. No animal population anywhere on the planet is not directly impacted (and thus reduced) by man's impacts.Pronunciation: \ˈdī-ˌȯf\
Function: noun
Date: 1936
: a sudden sharp decline of a population of animals or plants that is not caused directly by human activity
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/die-off
I think by "directly" it means intentionally such as by hunting, like the Passenger Pigeon and the Dodo, etc. Most extinctions presently are indirect, such as by habitat loss.
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