[henrypinge]

(Beforehand, I must to say sorry about my ability to english, since my native language is not english.)

Most of people in this forum worry about peak oil. However, I think peak oil JUST a very very long event, and we actually don't have to really worry about it. We just adapt for decreasing oil supply, and it will definitely change peoples' INCENTIVE in economy. Once society notice that we can't endless waste petroleum, I believe, our world can still have sufficient oil supply by reducing unnecessary waste. (Though I live in Taiwan, I still know that Americans waste a lot of resource in many ways. )

The one we should really worry about is population aging, especially the impact on SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE and MEDICAID. This situation not just happens in America, but happens in EVERY developed countries, even in the biggest developing country, china.

Why I have such different opinion? I think that high energy cost can easily change economic behavior, however, HIGH TAX can destroy economy. When I studied macroeconomics, the textbook, about government debt, says that, if government supports every promise for the elders, federal government must raise taxes forever. It means that America should say goodbye to annually average 3% GDP growth. It doesn't matter that you put this scenario on other developed country, afterall the result is no different.

When we spent most of economic output to support the elders, we have not enough output to support other things, such as education, technology advancing etc.Education and technology is the key to determine whether we can unpainfully reduce our economy depending on oil.

SUMMY:

At some level, discussing whether peak oil can have huge impact on our world may not be the FIRST priority. If we don't solve population aging, even we figure out how to deal with peak oil, we still have big trouble. As I said above, we don't have enough economic output to deal with peak oil impact even we have an excellent plan.

In the future, the most serious problem we face may not be the peak oil impact, but our own population aging impact.

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Taiwan, where I live, imports its ~100% oil supply, just like Japan, however, Taiwan is not rich like Japan. Our government facing the same fiscal problem in American. Everybody can easily imagine the peak oil impact on this 100% oil importing country, not to mention the possibility of "the china factor" during world oil supply turbulence.

[Jotapay]

I'd hate to see what's going to happen to Taiwan when the mainlanders take over. Mao killed 60 million mainlanders, at minimum. I would leave if I were you. The USA won't be able to protect you forever. Don't your newspapers run articles about how bad our government finances are, which aren't run here at all?

A Chinese woman sits next to me at work. My ex-girlfriend is from Hong Kong. They tell me all about the AIG stuff that Americans have no idea about but is in every Chinese newspaper, how important AIG is to China.

Leave now unless you want to see what it's like when the communists take over your island.

[SeaGypsy]

I worry about Taiwan's future also. I am pulling my family out of the Philippines, partly because it is too close to Taiwan and is likely to become a major platform for US Forces in the event of war with China over Taiwan.
My feeling is that China is just waiting for the USA to pull it's international bases, then in they will come. The best solution for Taiwan is to reach a settlement with China along the lines of what Hongkong has done. This needs to happen before American hegemony collapses, while there is still something to negotiate with. If China has to force it's way in it will be brutal, there is no doubt about it.

Your point on aging populatation and absurd promises made to the older generations is totally valid. These promises were made on the premise of perpetual growth/ miracle economics; things which don't exist.
These issues have been explored here in great detail in a number of threads. So far you haven't added anything to the debate. The whole issue needs to be looked at holisticly, to have any chance of a realistic view of what is happening and what is likely to happen. Peak oil is not a single issue subject. Oil is the cornerstone of modern economics, not the whole house.

[Mesuge]

By the world's standards, Taiwan should be considered a mid-rich country at the minimum, I'm not familiar with the trend details, perhaps it is comparatively loosing the edge as the mainland China builds up its own high tech dev & productions centers recently etc. I doubt there will ever be a full scale war conflict, perhaps a skirmish following surrended for Taiwan (political) of sorts seems inevitable in the longterm, yes, but physical elimination not likely. It depends on you if this outlook constitutes a strong incentive to change the entire course of your life, in my book not, but what I know..

Upto the very last minute, you can always cash out and leave, it's upto you to weight the risks and timing of "keep on trucking" or looking for "greener pastures" elsewhere. However, as mentioned numerous times here before, the best time for moving has lapsed, you need at least a decade or two to get settled in the new community and not appear as complete unknown factor/liability/danger..

Perhaps a hairbrain idea, but what is certain, that in your greater pacific region, the energy and materials will have to continue to be sucked out from somewhere, and apart from eastern provinces of Russia/Siberia another of these places is Australia. They have got their own share of problems stemming from the high rate of immigration for decades (plus the ecologic/suburbia and oscilating weather caused problems) but for the mass of land and exportable raw resources to the pop ratio is still "relatively" good. If your professional background is at least a bit technical in nature, you might try explore your opportunity over there in the extraction industries and related services. However, the window of immigration opportunity is rapidly shutting down in Australia though..

This has become large part of the internal political debate there, plus Australia is one of the few countries in the world openly discussing PO in their msm outlets and gov. circles, so perhaps as society they might be in a position to act more swiftly than others, e.g. one day out of blue shuting down of borders, introducing PO induced command like features to their economy/lifestyle etc. when the rest of the world just continues to debate this stuff..

PS all the above is just informed-speculative talk, the PO effects are/will be game changing everywhere, you can't hide your ass under the rock, but some places will fare much better in the next decades than others..

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')(Australia ) They have got their own share of problems stemming from the high rate of immigration for decades (plus the ecologic/suburbia and oscilating weather caused problems) but for the mass of land and exportable raw resources to the pop ratio is still "relatively" good. If your professional background is at least a bit technical in nature, you might try explore your opportunity over there in the extraction industries and related services. However, the window of immigration opportunity is rapidly shutting down in Australia though..

This has become large part of the internal political debate there, plus Australia is one of the few countries in the world openly discussing PO in their msm outlets and gov. circles, so perhaps as society they might be in a position to act more swiftly than others, e.g. one day out of blue shuting down of borders, introducing PO induced command like features to their economy/lifestyle etc. when the rest of the world just continues to debate this stuff..

[Mesuge]

Thanks for the addendum, recently I overheard "climate-scientific" discussion, the gist of it, next 2-3decades of weather irregularities will move over the northern hemisphere, so perhaps there might be some relatively calm days ahead for Australia..

[GoghGoner]

We could take care of aging populations with increased use of energy. Fossil fuels are the slaves we could use to overcome problems such as an older population. In the present, we have a diminishing ability to produce slaves due to the reduction in cheap oil sources. If easy oil was available in ever greater amounts, I don't think an aging population would be a problem from a physical resource viewpoint.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('henrypinge', 'T')hough I live in Taiwan, I still know that Americans waste a lot of resource in many ways..

[sparky]

.

Australian has a very irregular weather pattern ,the climate is modulated by several decadal oscillations
the El Nino is only one , irregularities led to believe there is more .

Net result the place is racked by droughts which would make Texas blanch

and , as this year, we have been blessed by five cyclones up in the north in one year
massive floodings are slowly moving toward lake Eyre ,an area the size of Virginia is under water

Sydney has had one of the coldest , rainiest summer ever
Saturday there were flood raging in downtown Melbourne
with hailstones big enough to send people to hospital


The place is feast or famine , always will be

on the subject of the post peak " form " a slow downward plateau for the world economy is the reasonable guess ,
some countries will be OK if they have energy resources ,
other will be much worse off

the danger is that so far growth was the solution to social tensions ,
once we get in depression as a normal state , politics will become ugly

Try telling people things will get worst from now on , for ever and their retirement is gone
they'll support anyone who promise fixes , no matter how insane
The" tea party " is a mild taste of what is to come

.

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[Mesuge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', ' ')the danger is that so far growth was the solution to social tensions, once we get in depression as a normal state , politics will become ugly

Try telling people things will get worst from now on , for ever and their retirement is gone they'll support anyone who promise fixes , no matter how insane The" tea party " is a mild taste of what is to come.

[rangerone314]

I would think that even if peak oil is somewhat mitigated by reducing waste, that the combination of aging population in the developed countries, excess population in the developing countries, soil depletion, and energy price rising will be enough to cause chaos, to say nothing of massive government debts and interest payments on (which a few say might get as high as 50% of tax receipts within 10 years)

Its like a firing squad. Who can say for sure what bullet killed the executee? Its like the argument over which tanked the economy, bad mortgages or oil spike to $147.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'I')'d hate to see what's going to happen to Taiwan when the mainlanders take over. Mao killed 60 million mainlanders, at minimum. I would leave if I were you.

[SeaGypsy]

Hongkong is a totally different story. The agreement for handover from the British was negotiated over decades. There was never a bulid up of arms anywhere near the scale of Taiwan/ China.
Taiwan was never a British enclave, it started it's modern history as exactly what the Chinese call it: a rebel province (post Japanese occupation 1895/ 1945) The USA saw a political opportunity and backed Taiwan to become a seperate country, based on American style freemarket capitalist democracy. This has always riled the Chinese.
Taiwan has a window of opportunity to accept a settlement along the lines of Hongkong's which may be closing soon. The worst thing which can happen to Taiwan is for the USA to become so occupied elsewhere or domesticly that it can't or won't do anything for Taiwan at the time when China decides enough is enough.
It is not in China's interests to destroy Taiwan, or make it's people enemies by brutal attack. My feeling is that Taiwan is most likely wise enough to read the writing on the wall and reconcile with China. My hope is that they will not wait too long. My fear is that American spin will outlast it's muscle in Taiwan, leaving it floundering politicly and unable to reach a positive solution.

[sparky]

.

mesuge

"I doubt there will ever be a mainstream doomer (permanent downslope perspective) political party-movement, but this would likely take form of quasi sectarian entity."

of course you are right
politics is not about truth saying but about the harnessing of feelings
It is often commented that one of my favorite politician , Sarah Palin ,is inarticulate
and her message unfocused anger ,
that is exactly why it make sense to her supporters who feel the same way

depression politics are populist revolutionary and angry ,
the status quo is the enemy , in promises we trust


.

[Kristen]

On the subject (coughs loudly) I think you could be right. Surely the future is anyone's guess, and things could go with the flow.

[sparky]

the flow is a white water river and there is the distinct roaring sound downstream
just right now folks are arguing about a paddle .

[SFDukie]

Rebel province? I disagree. It has effectively been an independent country for more than 60 years. It's roughly the same age as Israel, India, Pakistan, and the Koreas. It has a vibrant representative government, and its economy is one of the 20 largest in the world. China can rattle its swords, but it has no way to get its 3M man army across the straights, to occupy 23M citizens who enjoy rule of law and freedom of expression. It could rain destruction on Taiwan, but Taiwan could extract a high price, too.

Mainland chinese emigrated to Taiwan about 400 years ago. The Qing Dynasty conquered Taiwan and ruled it from 1683 to 1895. Japan took Taiwan from the Qing dynasty by military force (exactly as the Qing dynasty did previously, to my view) and ruled it for 50 years. For the last 60 ears it has effectively been independent.

Taiwan has as much right to self determination as Ireland, to my view. Britain ruled Ireland from about the 17th century to the early 20th century.

[rangerone314]

Maybe the US should just "give" Taiwan a sub with nuclear ballistic missiles, and a few hundred land-based nuclear warheads and declare our hands washed of any treaty obligations. That would be great payback to China for helping Pakistan and North Korea develop nukes.

Then China has to decide if they want to invade a nuclear power that could lay waste to them.

[sparky]

One should not forget that the Chinese are one of the support of the US reserve bank

some delicacy with handling one's creditor when one's is broke should come amiss
Nixon gave Taiwan to Beijing ,
the rest is just a question of saving face

[BackyardRambo]

All China has to do for Taiwan to surrender is surround the island with it's navy, blocking all imports. Without imports, they are toast.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')ustralia is a very forward thinking country and learns from the mistakes of others better than most.

Yes Australia is capable of rapid border closure and emergency implementation.
I believe Australia is probably the best place in the world to be over the next many decades. Not least of my reasons is that we have no land borders with anyone.