[NeoPeasant]

I expect there to be a decades long decline in the material quality of life that our paychecks will buy. We will get used to far less mobility, simpler foods, , less sophisticated health care, smaller living spaces, less lighting, less climate control and less stuff. We will continue to blame whatever poor sap won the last election for our declining fortunes.
We might find our lifestyles in the actual 2022 closely resembling the lifestyles of the hypothetical 2022 portrayed in "Soylent Green"

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'S')o why have we hit peak propane? Decline in associated gas production or something? In the US that peak happened way back in 1996:.

[GoghGoner]

Rule of thumb -- unconventional ng is more dry (less LPGs like propane) than conventional ng.

50% of domestic propane production comes from ng processing (conventional decrease, whoops)
50% of domestic propane production comes from oil refining (refining decrease, whoops)
10% of total supply comes from imports (overseas refining, whoops)

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'K')evin, Militaries worldwide can no longer maintain the current configuration. We won't be maintaining bases across the globe anymore. By about 2050, nobody will. Expect political disruptions worldwide as power shifts unpredictably.
And it takes oil to *get* oil. That gets harder and more expensive too.
Are there alternatives like natural gas and coal? Sure, and we'll use them. We'll always have some fossil energy source, at least in our lifetime. We may not have enough, in time to avoid really unpleasant transitional effects.

[TheDude]

Thanks for the very interesting reply, gogh. For those interested: My MBTI Personality Type - MBTI Basics - The 16 MBTI Types. Hey, ISTJ's first listed! Me, George Washington, QE2, George HW Bush. Yech. "This aggression will not stand!"

You were referring to Stuart's Fallacy of Reversibility article, right? As you might expect, I come down on his side there too, barring a total slide backwards. They tried the Nation of Farmers thing in GD France, with very mixed results. More likely if we are facing a Japan style Lost Decade(s) in the US growing your own food will become popular for many out of economic necessity, along with developing alternative forms of MT, i.e., grey market jitnies, vanpooling, boring stuff like that.

But farming benefits from scale, it seems to me. The actual machinery uses such a small segment of fuel consumed; farmers can resort to growing a plot of soybeans for biodiesel if it came to that. The shipping fuel costs are another matter, of course; perhaps industrial ag will hold on but become more localized? But millions of bent backs? Plow horses? Sounds like a great neo WPA but it wouldn't be an effective way to farm, we have too much viable knowledge about machinery at this stage.

Kerosene: Anne Dilenschneider: Help Light Haiti (Huff Po)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omething we often take for granted -- lighting - is essential for safety and security, self-empowerment and self-sufficiency. Even before the earthquake, 85% of Haitians did not have electricity. Now the situation is even worse. You can help. For $10, you can empower a group of 10 people in Haiti for 10 years by providing a solar-powered light.

SunNight Solar has been providing solar-powered flashlights to the people of Haiti for over 4 years. There are reports that the lights already in Haiti at the time of the earthquake, and the 150 delivered by former President Clinton, are allowing neighbors to help each other in the aftermath. There is story after story of these lights being used to save lives.

Through its BoGo Lights ("Buy one, Give one") program, SunNight Solar donates solar-powered flashlights to schools and hospitals and homes throughout the world where electricity is unreliable. It also provides lights to women in refugee camps, because reliable light is essential for the safety and security of women and children who otherwise might be attacked at night.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')But farming benefits from scale, it seems to me. The actual machinery uses such a small segment of fuel consumed; farmers can resort to growing a plot of soybeans for biodiesel if it came to that.

[Olaf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'B')ut can they come out ahead energy-wise? Currently it takes about 10 calories of energy to bring 1 calorie of food to your table, using our industrial methods.
Large-scale mechanical farming is very labor-efficient, but it is extremely energy inefficient and not nearly as productive per unit of land as some other methods. And of course it is horrible for the soil, watersheds, habitat, etc etc

[Ludi]

You can find some comparables in the book "How to Grow More Vegetables" by John Jeavons. There are tables which give average US farm yields versus low, medium, and high yields from the Biointensive method. In my opinion you should ignore the high yields - they can only be achieved through perfect conditions, if at all. There is also data on yields of grain using Masanobu Fukuoka's "Natural Farming" method, but you may have to search around to find them (not at my fingertips right now). Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be more than anecdotal evidence that Permaculture can produce yields equal to or higher than industrial farming. There needs to be more work done in this area for sure. It's one of my goals in life to try to save people from having to "slave in the fields" for their food! But my experiments have been poor so far. I think Biointensive is a very promising method but too much work. But it is less work than some other kinds of traditional farming by hand.

References: "How to Grow More Vegetables" by John Jeavons

"One Straw Revolution" and other books by Masanobu Fukuoka

"Permaculture: a designers manual" by Bill Mollison

edited to add: as far as I know no method of farming by hand has beat the caloric yield per unit of land produced by industrial petroleum-based corn farming. But the cost of those yields is enormous.

[Olaf]

Thanks Ludi.

GoghGoner, I found that personality test interesting, and in my case, it seems spot on.

Olaf

[GoghGoner]

1997 2002 2007
Average farm size (acres) 431 441 418

Farms by size (percent)
1 to 99 acres 49.2 51.0 54.4
100 to 499 acres 34.7 33.1 31.0
500 to 999 acres 8.1 7.6 6.8
1000 to 1,999 acres 4.6 4.7 4.2
2,000 or more acres 3.4 3.7 3.6


http://www.ers.usda.gov/StateFacts/US.htm

You can see an decrease in average size and an increase in small farms. The increase of veggie gardens around the country in the last 2 years is exponential -- even the White House! Less food will becoming from large farms in 2010 and into the future. Unemployed people will need to eat and won't be able to pay for food that they can grow themselves.

Olaf, I also found that pysch test to be valid -- kind-of opened my eyes to a new way of looking at others (and myself)...

[truecougarblue]

My type, Mastermind. BWAHHAHAHHHHAHAHAAHHAHHAHA!!!!

I did a craigslist search today for serfs but only came up with a future serf who couldn't spell surf.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', '
')Unemployed people will need to eat and won't be able to pay for food that they can grow themselves.

[Revi]

I just visited a friend who has over a thousand acres and has a hard time making it pay. He is a single guy living on the family land. He owns it all free and clear, but even with that it's hard.

The economics of farming has to turn around in a hurry if we're going to eat at all.

He was feeding his cows, which are a hardy breed, scottish highlanders.

We need to get people back on productive land and soon if we are going to have a chance at survival.

Meanwhile the sap just started to run, so the season is officially beginning for us.

We have a month of sugaring coming up now.

[JustaGirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hat should be obvious. We need 50 billion more people and their associated orgone energy to port into the singularity

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kevin Green', 'G')ood afternoon.

After registering up with the forums, and spending some time browsing through the various threads, I have to question some of the sanity of ya'all. Let me begin by stating I am a firm believer in Peak Oil. Oil is a finite supply, and so of course, it will run out one day. Even Exxon Mobile has to agree with this to some extent. We are headed for a cliff, and eventually we are going to tumble over it. --snip-- What are your thoughts? How do you think it's going to end?

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olaf', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')Large-scale mechanical farming is very labor-efficient, but it is extremely energy inefficient and not nearly as productive per unit of land as some other methods.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')...they immediately retreat to their default position - which is overpopulation.

[rangerone314]

Advances in supercomputing, nano-technology, genetic engineering, quantum mechanics, computational neuroscience.

And massive impoverished populations in Africa, India, Indonesia, China, Pakistan and Bangledesh are related to these advances, despite those impoverished people NOT creating many of these advances. Oh wait I stand corrected, there is a farmer on a half-ocean-submerged mudflat in Bangledesh that just invented a zero point energy reactor.

OKAY...

[oowolf]

Science projects a hard and fast crash. That is irrefutable. The "end" will resemble the Permian-Triassic mass exrtinction event. Humans and their so-called civilization of mass death and senseless destruction will be gone long before then, though. Whether it takes decades or centuries, it's still a fast crash in geologic terms. Most of us are primarily concerned about how bad it will get in our lifetimes. To me, the human situation is already intolerable and beyond hope. Our collective behavior can only be described as insanity. We made a WRONG turn and now all multicellular life is going to pay for it. All I personally do is try to live as non-destructively as I can; knowing that my efforts won't change the outcome. Because it's the ETHICAL thing to do.
On the other hand, some of my best friends are Cornies. I thrive on contention.
Cheers, and have a nice day,
your misanthropic, INTJ, uberdoomer moral-philosopher, hippie, ogre,
oo