[Ayoob_Reloaded]

an event that will happen after which life will be different? It seems like a lot of the posters here think that we'll peak, and then all of a sudden everything will change overnight, and that it will stay in this new condition for an extended period of time.

I can't see it happening like that. More likely to me, nobody's going to ring a bell and yell "We've peaked, yo!" I bet that we'll just continue to see the exact same things we see going on today, only moreso. More jobs outsourced (for a while), more school budgets getting cut, more funding problems at the federal, state, and local levels of government, more high gas bills, fewer jobs opening up, more corporate corruption getting exposed, etc.

Roads getting worse because we can't easily and cheaply fix them, maybe the occasional store delivery not making it, another bond auction that doesn't go well so we have to raise rates, more services getting cut, more prisons being built to house the undesirables... crime starting to rise...

That's all. US culture and living standards will just slip and continue to slip a little bit every year, year after year after year. It'll be really fashionable to have a garden again at some point and the nature of sports will change. Less MLB, more little league.

If you read The Fourth Turning, you might guess that the Boomers will enjoy every last cent of SS they can get before they shut the program down due to too much debt to pay off. Then again, you never knoa.

Not that it would matter much anyway. In my opinion, things will simply get worse steadily. Standards of living will decline continuously and permanently. Not that a new standard will emerge and will be maintained permanently, but that a new standard will be set every year, and every year it will be lower. We will not fix in place and we will not advance again, but permanently decline year after year. Where once you were wealthy to drive a Rolls, another year might see a wealthy man in a Honda (that works).

One year the US has a population of 280 million, and another year it's 560 million, and another year it might be 1.12 billion and most of us are living in the street. And guess what? There's another year behind that one with some new version of poverty to dress us up in.

You will have children who will have it worse than you did, and they will have children who have it worse than them. Another generation grows up and uses more valuable resources from the Earth and uses it up, leaving nothing for their children, and isn't even concerned with leaving the next generation worse off for it. The following generation lives with mercury in its brain from the warm night you spent under the electric blanket and there's nothing they can do about it.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I agree with your slow decline sorta like a boa constrictor slowly squeezing the crap out of our standard of living. But I also believe that the governments will take some kind of steps. not the way most would.

I expect a pandemic, they have been telling us we are on the verge for long enough that when it happens no one will question whether it was naturally made or man-made. Everyone will say, they were right and they've been saying it long enough.

Conversely, a lot of people will think that its a good thing (as long as they don't loose someone). everything is justified as long as it doesn't happen to us.

I think by taking steps they will save some of the resources for who is left (it will only marginally lessen the impact nothing of enough significance). they will also keep people busy surviving which is even better for keeping social order intact. and by lessening the population they lessen the number of people who could threaten their holds on global power.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, I just don't think there is any depth they can sink to.

[DamienJasper]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob_Reloaded', 'a')n event that will happen after which life will be different? It seems like a lot of the posters here think that we'll peak, and then all of a sudden everything will change overnight, and that it will stay in this new condition for an extended period of time.

I can't see it happening like that. More likely to me, nobody's going to ring a bell and yell "We've peaked, yo!" I bet that we'll just continue to see the exact same things we see going on today, only moreso. More jobs outsourced (for a while), more school budgets getting cut, more funding problems at the federal, state, and local levels of government, more high gas bills, fewer jobs opening up, more corporate corruption getting exposed, etc.

Roads getting worse because we can't easily and cheaply fix them, maybe the occasional store delivery not making it, another bond auction that doesn't go well so we have to raise rates, more services getting cut, more prisons being built to house the undesirables... crime starting to rise...

That's all. US culture and living standards will just slip and continue to slip a little bit every year, year after year after year. It'll be really fashionable to have a garden again at some point and the nature of sports will change. Less MLB, more little league.

If you read The Fourth Turning, you might guess that the Boomers will enjoy every last cent of SS they can get before they shut the program down due to too much debt to pay off. Then again, you never knoa.

Not that it would matter much anyway. In my opinion, things will simply get worse steadily. Standards of living will decline continuously and permanently. Not that a new standard will emerge and will be maintained permanently, but that a new standard will be set every year, and every year it will be lower. We will not fix in place and we will not advance again, but permanently decline year after year. Where once you were wealthy to drive a Rolls, another year might see a wealthy man in a Honda (that works).

One year the US has a population of 280 million, and another year it's 560 million, and another year it might be 1.12 billion and most of us are living in the street. And guess what? There's another year behind that one with some new version of poverty to dress us up in.

You will have children who will have it worse than you did, and they will have children who have it worse than them. Another generation grows up and uses more valuable resources from the Earth and uses it up, leaving nothing for their children, and isn't even concerned with leaving the next generation worse off for it. The following generation lives with mercury in its brain from the warm night you spent under the electric blanket and there's nothing they can do about it.

[MicroHydro]

For the US, life changed permanently on December 12, 2000 when the loser of a Presidential election was installed in power by the Supreme Court. Since then, the US has suffered a false flag terror attack on NYC and the suspension of the constitution via Patriot Act. Not to mention the mysterious deaths of Sen. Wellstone and Gov. Carnahan, the mysterious last minute defeats of Walter Mondale and Max Cleland in 2002 with black box voting, and a totally fraudulent 2004 election. All of this to launch the an ongoing world war for control of energy supply and transport.

Yes, the material standard of living has not changed much yet. But for Americans, we are living in a completely altered world already. And peak oil was the catalyst for the installation of this new regime.

[RickTaylor]

I'll copout and say I really don't know. If you force me to guess, yeah, gradual seems more likely than sudden to me. But who knows? Imagine if there was a coup in Saudi Arabia for example, or if the oil fields were sabotaged; things could happen very quickly then. Also, the supreme recklessness of my country (U.S.A) in the last few years (e.g. a huge federal deficit, a huge trade deficit, an over-stretched military, few attempts made to conserve oil until the crises is upon us) make a sudden catastrophic fall more likely.

I'm hoping it will be somewhere in the middle. Fast enough and bad enough to wake us out of our slumber (and avoid the frog boiling in slowly heated water metaphor), but not so bad that we simply panic and everything falls apart.

--Rick Taylor

[RonMN]

There could be many possible scenerios...from very fast crash to very slow crash to some magical alternative energy saving our bacon. Our economic outlook isn't good & it's possible we could collapse in one day simply due to countries switching from the petro-dollar to the petro-euro.

Who's to say what the furture will hold?

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob_Reloaded', 'a')n event that will happen after which life will be different? It seems like a lot of the posters here think that we'll peak, and then all of a sudden everything will change overnight, and that it will stay in this new condition for an extended period of time.

[heyhoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob_Reloaded', 'a')n event that will happen after which life will be different? It seems like a lot of the posters here think that we'll peak, and then all of a sudden everything will change overnight, and that it will stay in this new condition for an extended period of time.

[Ludi]

I see a rather sudden collapse quite feasible, if large fields like Cantarell and Ghawar peak around the same time. But even a 2-3% decline in production combined with increased demand seems like it could cause serious problems very suddenly. I've not seen anyone argue this away convincingly except to say "I think it will be slow."

See this thread:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic7432.html

[pea-jay]

I cannot buy the slow decline theory, at least over the long term. I can agree (and hope and believe) the early years of post peak civilization will be, well, civilized. There IS enough excess in the system to be cut before things get problematic. People suffered through worse recessions and nothing serious happened. So, lets say we wind up short some time soon on oil or natural gas and the prices go through the roof. More industry will go under, people will drive less, spend less and do less. Demand will (temporarily be brought under supply). Barring a near term catastrophe or financial panic, I think for most the situation will be quite managable for a little bit, perhaps one to three years if no one looses their heads.

The problem is there is only so much "fat" that can be cut. We will hit a point where people and the overall economic system cannot take anymore declines without cascading into a collapse of some sort. Remember, energy will keep declining on an annual basis, but our core needs to stay warm, fed and existing at a basic level still require energy. Our current system isnt capable of winding down to a sustainable level without serious problems

We really needed to have started planning much sooner on an orderly decline.

Decline may start out smooth, but a crash is still in the cards.

[Ludi]

I agree, pea-jay. I can see the beginning being slow and not dramatic, just things getting more and more expensive, but after a point (like, a year), it will get much worse very quickly, I think.

[tdrive]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't think that we'll eventually peak and then everyhting will change immediately.

[seldom_seen]

I would say gradual, and we're already well underway.

It could be another 8 months to a year before inflation catches up with the rising oil prices that have occured over the last year.

some of the obvious signs:

- oil prices (duh)
- iraq war
- china investing in canada tar sands
- investment houses saying cheap oil is gone
- SUV sales have tanked, waiting list for hybrids
- SA ditching production quotas
- president bush saying the word "conservation"
- IEA warning on "acute oil shortages"
- housing starts way down
- GM/Ford = junk
- lots of press on energy/oil issues
- My local station doesn't have premium gas anymore?
- IMF getting a little nervous
- much speculation that Gwahar has peaked

I mentioned in another post that I think the it will be more like erosion than a tsunami. So the erosion is underway, the question is what makes erosion worse? storms. A storm could come in the form of an attack on SA oil fields, a new war in Iran or somewhere. A loaded tanker sinking, being bombed or hijacked. Any number of things could kick it in to high gear any day now.

We will have real problems when a critical mass of people come to the realization that we're in a real energy crunch. The psychological effect itself could be devastating.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '
') Any number of things could kick it in to high gear any day now.

We will have real problems when a critical mass of people come to the realization that we're in a real energy crunch. The psychological effect itself could be devastating.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA warning on "acute oil shortages"

[Ebyss]

I'm actually thinking "slow crash", even though my actions lead people to believe I'm a "liberal, treehugging doomer". I'm really not.. (well, maybe the tree hugger, I do love trees). But like Ludi said, I don't have anything concrete to offer to say why I think it will be a slow crash... it's just one of those "gut things". I'm fully prepared for a hard one though (at least mentally anyway, I'm working on the food thing).

Tbh, I'd prefer a hard crash in some ways. I just don't believe humans are above nature, and the sooner this whole mess ends the better IMO.

[accept_death]

I think we've already begun the crash. The peak, our "finest hour" was in the late 90's, probably coinciding with the arrival of mainstream popularity of the internet. A new era of hope and awareness. And then we get the 2000 election. Then 9-11. The invasion of Iraq. 2$ gasoline. Blah blah, you know the drill. While we're over the big hump (barely) I still think it will be a long road. You don't just undo a couple hundred years of industrialisation over night. Depending how old you are (I'm 22), you will likely experience the crash for the remainder of your life. There will be times when things seem to be getting especially bad that might last several years. Times when things will seem to be better. But the gradual trend will be downward, in a somewhat inverse proportion to the progress we've been making the last century and a half. Eventually, say maybe 100 years from now things will sorta bottom out and stabilize for a while. Whatever world emerges then will be quite unrecognizable from what we have today, at least in terms of it's political structure. Beyond that who knows, it could be advanced and brimming with some newfound energy, or it could be the stone age. Or I could just be talking out of my ass but this is "open discussion" so...

Maybe we'll all be mutants from the nuclear resource wars...

[frankthetank]

IMO the slide has started already, easily seen with 2+/gas. This will continue to be the case until the price hits a point/or borrowing hits a point where current lifestyles can not be sustained.

Figuring the timing of such an event is hard, because the facts are so fuzzy. The bottom line is it is happening and sooner/later PO will change society/civilization.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'F')or the US, life changed permanently on December 12, 2000 when the loser of a Presidential election was installed in power by the Supreme Court. Since then, the US has suffered a false flag terror attack on NYC and the suspension of the constitution via Patriot Act. Not to mention the mysterious deaths of Sen. Wellstone and Gov. Carnahan, the mysterious last minute defeats of Walter Mondale and Max Cleland in 2002 with black box voting, and a totally fraudulent 2004 election. All of this to launch the an ongoing world war for control of energy supply and transport.

Yes, the material standard of living has not changed much yet. But for Americans, we are living in a completely altered world already. And peak oil was the catalyst for the installation of this new regime.

[smallpoxgirl]

IMHO, the problem with the slow crash model is this. The nice bell shaped oil curve assumes that geology is the constraining factor, i.e. that the social and economic factors that enable oil extraction will continue more or less as they have. In the case of the United States depletion curve this was true. No profound abrupt social, political, or economic shifts happened because of it.

In the case of the world peak, I'm not sure that is likely to be true. The world peak places a hard geologic cap that has HUGE implications in the social, political, and economic realms. The social, political, and economic contructs under which we live have certain basic tenants. Materialism and perpetual growth being the most fundamental. When those systems are met with a hard geological constraint that say that: A: growth is no longer possible and we are in a permentant contractile state. and B: material wealth is in inevitable and irreversible decline, then I don't think those systems are robust enough to survive the shock.

Capatalism dosen't work without perpetual growth. In a world of contracting economies, borrowing on interest is not useful. In a world without borrowed money, the monatary supply contracts radically, and the banking system vapor locks and dies. In a world without ever-increasing material enticements, the vapid, neurotic, self centered societies which we have created, will explode. The only way that people conceptualize themselves individually, and as a society is in their acquisition of material goods. There is no other glue holding our societies together. This is why, when Americans were feeling shaken and lost after 9-11, the strongest unifying advice their leaders could give was "go shopping". In their shopping mall orgy, Americans understood themselves as a cohesive unit.

Finally I think that our political structures are incredibly tenuous. In reality there have negligible capacity to control the population if even a small percentage cease to view them as legitimate. The US government has become like an arthritic 50 year old father scolding his athletic 18 year old son. The son may obey out of respect, or because he does not realize his own strength and accepts the father's bluff. But the father lacks the physical capacity to force obediance if he pushes the son too far. People will only tolerate so much hardship before they lash out at the government. The government will be placed in an untenable position of having to either greatly increase taxes on the wealthy (the only people responsible for their elections) to ameliorate hunger and poverty, or else face ever growing and increasingly hostile mobs of poor. If the governmental and societal integrity falter, then the economic system will colapse. IMHO, we may very well enter a dark age with 40% of the oil still sitting in the ground.