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so where is this peak oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby keepitlow » Tue 12 Jan 2010, 21:42:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'C')redit card still works. My heat is still on. Market shelves still stocked. The neighborhood is still save. Plane travel is available at reasonable costs. Gasoline available. Internet is up, electricity is available. Phone works. Ambulance still coming when needed. Roads are plowed. Welfare is still paid. Immigrants and refugees are arriving as always. Police out there radaring as always.

Where is this collapse? Wasn't it supposed to be here by now, according to old predictions? Or do we postpone till Christmas 2010?


Seems to be many trends chipping away at our very survival before the SHTF comes knocking at our door. So even if none of our SHTF scenarios come to fruition, living life itself can be a survival feat nowadays.
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 12 Jan 2010, 21:49:16

Only 25% of the third class passengers lived through the Titanic disaster.

I think that will be the ratio for us too.

The third class passengers are already in trouble.

If you look around you can see the signs already.

Peak oil is here. It is in the price of living for people on the bottom, but it has taken away any cushion that middle class people used to have also.

$3 heating oil is way too expensive for a lot of people around here.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 12 Jan 2010, 23:28:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Peak oil is here. It is in the price of living for people on the bottom, but it has taken away any cushion that middle class people used to have also.

$3 heating oil is way too expensive for a lot of people around here.


Maybe New Englanders in general should be heavily encouraging the development of New Yorks natural gas? Certainly its better for the environment, local supply, its certainly cheaper by about 60% over the same energy content of heating oil.

See any large scale shifts towards this obvious solution? Certainly it will happen as the devastating peak oil decline kicks in some year/time/decade, no reason people can't get started early though, and those still using heating oil for heat must be prime candidates for this obvious conversion.
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 13 Jan 2010, 10:57:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Peak oil is here. It is in the price of living for people on the bottom, but it has taken away any cushion that middle class people used to have also.

$3 heating oil is way too expensive for a lot of people around here.


Maybe New Englanders in general should be heavily encouraging the development of New Yorks natural gas?



How would the people Revi is talking about do that? How would the poor of Maine "heavily encourage" the development of natural gas in another state?
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 13 Jan 2010, 20:37:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Peak oil is here. It is in the price of living for people on the bottom, but it has taken away any cushion that middle class people used to have also.

$3 heating oil is way too expensive for a lot of people around here.


Maybe New Englanders in general should be heavily encouraging the development of New Yorks natural gas?



How would the people Revi is talking about do that? How would the poor of Maine "heavily encourage" the development of natural gas in another state?


Petitions? Cross border voting? Get their Congressional delegation to lobby the other states in the area? Secede from the Union, build an army, invade New York and create one of these resource wars we've been hearing about for years now but can't seem to get rolling? Promise a premium price for the product? Offer to build the pipeline themselves?
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby hironegro » Mon 18 Jan 2010, 19:15:51

Nice to see everyone feed the troll.

The real issue is that conventional crude is gone, and now we are forced to use tar sands, heavy oil, deep water oil, and shale.
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 18 Jan 2010, 20:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'N')ice to see everyone feed the troll.

The real issue is that conventional crude is gone, and now we are forced to use tar sands, heavy oil, deep water oil, and shale.


By "gone", you mean, except for the trillion or so barrels still listed as reserves? Or are you claiming that these inventories aren't there?
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby Velociryx » Mon 18 Jan 2010, 20:23:44

Duuuuude!

You KNOW this stuff man!

Okay, okay, so maybe you ate too much turkey over the holidays.

I shall re-explain:

The definition of conventional oil is:

Any oil that was pumped out of the ground more than five years ago.

So CLEARLY those inventories are made up of UN-conventional oil!

The distinction is important because, per the prophets, when we run out of conventional oil....

wait for it....

c'mon, seriously...wait for it....

THEENDOFTHEWORLDISNIGHANDWEAREALLGONNADIE!!!!!

Ahem....right.

Well, I don't know about you, but I feel much better. :)

-=Vel=-

PS: Have you hugged a zombie today?

**Note the uber-convenience of labeling "conventional oil" whatever we want/need it to be, then tying the end of the world to that contrived "type" of oil. VERY handy! ;)
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 18 Jan 2010, 22:31:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '
')wait for it....

c'mon, seriously...wait for it....

THEENDOFTHEWORLDISNIGHANDWEAREALLGONNADIE!!!!!

Ahem....right.

Well, I don't know about you, but I feel much better. :)

-=Vel=-

PS: Have you hugged a zombie today?


Welcome back Velo....someone is in a fine mood this evening. :lol:
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby Velociryx » Mon 18 Jan 2010, 22:40:00

:D Thanks! Good Christmas, I presume? Did you get a new scope for your rifle? (Zombie target practice, and all that? I got one AND some canned veggies! WOOT!)

-=Vel=-
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby hironegro » Sun 24 Jan 2010, 00:09:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'N')ice to see everyone feed the troll.

The real issue is that conventional crude is gone, and now we are forced to use tar sands, heavy oil, deep water oil, and shale.


By "gone", you mean, except for the trillion or so barrels still listed as reserves? Or are you claiming that these inventories aren't there?

ummm, so you mean there is trillions of lite sweet crude still out there?
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 24 Jan 2010, 01:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'N')ice to see everyone feed the troll.

The real issue is that conventional crude is gone, and now we are forced to use tar sands, heavy oil, deep water oil, and shale.


By "gone", you mean, except for the trillion or so barrels still listed as reserves? Or are you claiming that these inventories aren't there?

ummm, so you mean there is trillions of lite sweet crude still out there?


Light, sweet, sour, heavy, condensate, seeping out in the Arctic, occasionally manufactured from natural gas, undiscovered in Russia, not counted in Saudi Arabia, and 500 billion more just put on the books in Venezuela...yes....all of the above. With the recent Venezuela additions, we're at nearly 2 trillion now I suppose. Its getting downright ridiculous...there used to be a time when 2 trillion was the TOTAL the earth had, now we've got nearly that much in unused inventory!
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 24 Jan 2010, 01:35:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'N')ice to see everyone feed the troll.

The real issue is that conventional crude is gone, and now we are forced to use tar sands, heavy oil, deep water oil, and shale.


By "gone", you mean, except for the trillion or so barrels still listed as reserves? Or are you claiming that these inventories aren't there?

ummm, so you mean there is trillions of lite sweet crude still out there?

The truth is no one knows for sure. OPEC sure won't let anyone assay their reserves, and the big coordinated OPEC inflation of the claimed reserves in the 80's has never been adequately justified. Nor has the fact that hundreds of billions of barrels of those reseves have been used in the past 25 years, yet OPEC claims those reserves just happen to always stay almost exactly the same. (Like they're not even bothering to measure or publish meaningful reserve figures any more).

So the cheap stuff will run out at some point, but most folks have a whole collection of axes to grind, so they won't admit that we just don't know.

In my book, an organization that refuses 3rd party assays has something to hide and their figures are NOT to be trusted at face value.

The new stuff being found is almost all going to be very expensive or take a long time to get at, or both. So the problem isn't that we're running out of oil -- the problem is we really don't know WHERE we are in relation to running out of CHEAP oil. Likely rapidly growing world demand trend via Chindia, etc. can't help.

If we run out of the cheap stuff before all the coming green energy tech.and NG cars get ramped up -- oil prices seem destined to trend strongly higher. That can't be good for the global economy.

But since both doomers and cornies will hate me for stating what seems pretty obvious, I'm sure it's flame-on now...
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 24 Jan 2010, 11:54:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'S')o the problem isn't that we're running out of oil



Peak oil is not about "running out of oil."

How many times do we have to say this? 8O
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Re: so where is this peak oil?

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 24 Jan 2010, 12:09:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'S')o the problem isn't that we're running out of oil



Peak oil is not about "running out of oil."

How many times do we have to say this? 8O


A particularly apropo comment considering the near multiple of trillions of barrels we DO have left.
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