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Credit crunch impacts on production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 22:30:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '&')quot;The massive snowstorm that buried much the East Coast last month caused scattered fuel shortages from Virginia to Connecticut, according to the Associated Press."

Maine anecdotal....My brother who lives in Saco, ME said that his supplier had several days where they could not get sufficient supplies for deliveries and they had to ration fuel. Saco, Biddeford and some of the local towns there just south of Portland. He hs been there for almost 20 years and DOES NOT EVER REMEMBER A SUPPLY ISSUE.

BTW AP, here is your heating oil shortage. Not!

Image

Maybe with propane you'd have half an argument, but they're still only a little bit below the 5-year average.

Image

FAIL.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 23:20:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')BTW AP, here is your heating oil shortage. Not!

Image


Holy Massive Supplies Bat Man!

All that cold and it hasn't even gotten back to the average stocks yet....remember what everyone was saying when the inventories were BELOW the average? They'd be posting THAT graph like 3 times a day as proof of....something....PO+5 and we're DROWNING in the stuff.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 03:07:01

Nobody here is denying that the US has some decent inventory. Gee I wonder why?

You guys go ahead and completely ignore the face of global energy and what is going on. Its in those poor third world countries where you will see the hardships first.
Typical denialists.

Velo,

Ill raise the BS flag again here on you. You are falsely assuming meaning where none is implied. Once again i point out that almost NO ONE HERE IS talking about running out of oil, yet you ignorantly claim we are talking immediate doom. Wrong.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 03:16:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') was once at a gas station that had a bad pump handle, and in 20 years that pump had never had a broken handle before! It must be peak oil! Come on Airline, are you kidding?
When you have lived in one area your entire adult life and pay close attention to things like this, patterns are noticeable. Reasons for things like diesel and home heating fuel shortages become apparent. Noting that this is becoming more prevalent in the last 2-3 years during colder parts of winter hints at underlying fundamental change.

Anecdotal evidence is just that, but it does CONTRIBUTE to the overall picture if you are OBJECTIVE and apply deductive reasoning to that evidence. My brother is not a doomer nor a cornucopian. He has noticed a shift which affects his daily life and others. This shift is directly related to supply and demand and inventory levels. I consider that important in the overall scheme of things and find it relevant to the study of resource depletion and particularly PO.

Your silly reply shows you have no desire to be objective and look at a piece of data no matter how trivial with anything other than denial colored glasses.

For goodness sake at least make a reasonable attempt at making an argument. If not your reply is just about as nonsensical as you think my anecdotal evidence is.

You guys are becoming almost comically predictable.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Velociryx » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 11:11:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'N')obody here is denying that the US has some decent inventory. Gee I wonder why? --snip-- Once again i point out that almost NO ONE HERE IS talking about running out of oil, yet you ignorantly claim we are talking immediate doom. Wrong.
Wait...so, in your own post (9 posts above this one), where you cited the articles painting a picture of fuel rationing, lack of supplies, and shortages, you WEREN'T attempting to paint a picture of "running out?"

If I may ask the question then...what WERE you trying to say?

IMO, your "weave and dodge" behavior has become increasingly pronounced as you have been utterly disproved at every turn, so rather than concede defeat, you doggedly press on, twisting in the wind and changing your argument with each post to see if maybe THIS TIME you can hit upon a point that will actually stick.

And...you DO realize you're on PeakOil.com, right? You DO realize that you've aligned yourself with the DOOMer side of the argument, yes?

I ask the question because to say that "no one here is talking about running out" or about doom scenarios (end of the world as we know it, oil = money, etc, etc, etc) seems to me to indicate that you've not read ANY of the threads here (including the one you're currently posting in!), and certainly none of the "stickied" ones (you know...the ones considered real important and central to the whole argument).

As to predictable...we're not the ones who take every bit of news and try to spin it to fit our dogmatic beliefs, like: "Are you guys watching the price of oil!? It rose ten cents! THIS IS IT!! "Yep...strap yourselves in...it's gonna be one heckuva ride!"

"Look! Someone, somewhere ran out of fuel...IT MUST BE THE END!!!! etc., etc., etc. You guys are a parody of yourselves, but WE're being predictable. Well...inasmuch as we call you on your BS, yes, I suppose we are.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 11:14:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '&')quot;Are you guys watching the price of oil!? It rose ten cents! THIS IS IT!!!!!!!!!"
"Yep...strap yourselves in...it's gonna be one heckuva ride!"
"Look! Someone, somewhere ran out of fuel...IT MUST BE THE END!!!!!" etc., etc., etc.
You guys are a parody of yourselves,
That's what makes this place so much fun! :)
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 11:19:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '&')quot;Are you guys watching the price of oil!? It rose ten cents! THIS IS IT!!!!!!!!!" "Yep...strap yourselves in...it's gonna be one heckuva ride!"
"Look! Someone, somewhere ran out of fuel...IT MUST BE THE END!!!!!" etc., etc., etc.
You guys are a parody of yourselves,
That's what makes this place so much fun! :)
:twisted: :twisted:
Here. How about this. We will never run out of oil We will run out of demand. And then people.

$29.75 per bbl by Xmas '10. Wasn't that my prediction? I could've said $39.95 and still been below the other prediction prices. The Market moves in the direction that hurts the greatest number of people the most.

"President Obama's plan is a concern for the commodity markets as large investment banks have become key players in the commodity and equity markets," Kim Rugel at broker Benson Quinn Commodities said. "These tougher risk rules for banks may be another way for the government to limit speculative positions in the commodity markets beyond the position limits imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission." Some traders have claimed to see evidence of liquidation by funds attached to big banks, in an effort to beat the crowd in trimming risk positions.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 11:37:31

I don't know how to say it any simpler than you just are not able to comprehend English Velo. Maybe its not your first language, dunno.

I have said here in this thread and in many others I am not a fast crash doomer as MOST ON THIS WEBSITE ARE NOT.

You and the other cornies continue to misquote, assume, and generalize in a sweeping way in some feeble attempt to paint us in that light.
You then unsuccesfully challenge the premise of PO by painting some picture that we are claiming imminent doom but its nowhere to be seen!

NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE MESSAGE WE ARE ATTEMPTING TO CONVEY. But hey, if its the only way you can argue the point, more power to you. It works for folks who are incapable of open minded thought and reality. In other words those in denial.

I'm firmly ensconced in the camp that thinks it will be a slow grind down, not doom, but more of a long term problematic existence with higher prices and the inability to grow our economies moving forward. With an entire modern industrial foundation based on growth due to plentiful and CHEAP oil, it points to problems going forward. Possibly some big ones, but probably lots of small ones which make life harder and could..notice I said COULD, lead to occasional emergencies if certain political, or natural occurrences cause specific crisis.

If you dont see that, then fine. You can remain in your corny fantasy. Some technoutopian miracle existence where all is going to be fine becasue "they" are telling you so.

I'm more apt to believe right now that the problems are a bit larger than are being let on to, and that we may have a bit of a problem sooner than i and others had thought a few years ago. But that is only my opinion. It is not a DOOMER's. Please stop mischaracterizing it as such. You do so at risk of losing what shred of credibility you have around here.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 11:55:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')Here. How about this. We will never run out of oil
We will run out of demand. And then people.

$29.75 per bbl by Xmas '10. Wasn't that my prediction?

I could've said $39.95 and still been below the other
prediction prices.


And to use this to support perfectly my initial premise from late 2008, with oil at those prices the industry has (late 08 and into 09) seen significant issues with upstream investment and project delays/cancellations and will have further problems going forward with oil exploration and production if prices drop into this region again.

Hell even folks here who are in the industry agreed with me as I am sure they still do. I NEVER said the problem would be long term but would play a role in the kind of things we would see which are negative with respects to PO.

Thats it, thats all. No doom there at all. Things as of late last year are obviously better due to oil being near 80$/bbl again. Duh! Once economic growth is signaled, if we can achieve it, then you'll see the cycle repeat again and all you cornies will go away for a bit, then come back again with the same tired arguements as the economy craters and price slides back down again.

Thats your mantra and we get it. You keep on doing it while the rest of us attempt to get a handle on decline and what it means for those of us not in denial.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 12:32:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'N')obody here is denying that the US has some decent inventory. Gee I wonder why?

Then why did you post an article about shortages of heating oil and propane in the Northeast? :lol:

You are a bundle of contradictions. On the one hand you admit we are not running out of oil and that inventories are plentiful, but that is said immediately after you've told us about shortages of oil, complete with articles given as supposed evidence. :lol:

Anyway, back on topic . . .

>>> Canadian Operators Revive Oil Sands Projects <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ompanies are reviving projects in Canada's oil-sands region, a sign that life is returning to an industry hit hard by the economic downturn.

Two major oil-sands projects received funding this week. The Canadian arms of ConocoPhillips and Total SA said they are funding an expansion of their Surmont joint venture, and Calgary-based Husky Energy Inc. said Thursday it will spend C$2.5 billion (US $2.4 billion) on the first phase of its Sunrise project.

Both projects are moving ahead because costs have fallen and returns are higher than a year ago. When oil prices neared $150 a barrel in the summer of 2008, labor and engineering costs skyrocketed as companies raced to lock-in oil-sands projects. But those projects turned sour as crude prices plummeted below $50 a barrel last year as the global economic and financial crisis took a toll


[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 12:53:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')hen why did you post an article about shortages of heating oil and propane in the Northeast?


Maybe to support the premise that things aren't quite what you think they are? That maybe..just maybe..things are not quite BAU as you seem to think?

Maybe I do it for folks who might want to understand WHY that is happening and that it MAY have something to do with PO and supply/demand issues?

Maybe I do it to show folks like you who are not capable of global thought that there is a world out there that IS feeling the effects of PO and others might want to know?

You pick one. You keep calling me a bundle of contradictions and the more you do it the dumber you look.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 13:01:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')On the one hand you admit we are not running out of oil and that inventories are plentiful, but that is said immediately after you've told us about shortages of oil, complete with articles given as supposed evidence. ]


And your point is??? Who ever said we are going to run out of oil? What are you driving at??? Other than to once again paint a picture which only exists in YOUR HEAD. Shortages, price spikes, rationing etc existing in the third world are harbingers of what PO may bring to the rest of us sometime in the not too distant future. That would be why its relevant, not to dismiss the obvious point I was trying to make that you cornies dont seem to want to think on a global level. Shotages DO exist, they happen regularly and you deny we have any problems at all. 8O

If you only live in the moment and watch SHORT TERM TRENDS you wont have any idea of what may be coming down the road. Its the largest mistake cornies make.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 13:10:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')
If you only live in the moment and watch SHORT TERM TRENDS you wont have any idea of what may be coming down the road. Its the largest mistake cornies make.


Null Truths: Chaos Theory and the Market - Minyanville.com
Oct 8, 2008 ... Editor's Note: The following originally appeared on July 17, 2003 and, in light of current events, has been reprinted here for the benefit ...

www.minyanville.com/articles/market-tra ... o.../19405


"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehood and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited"

George Soros
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Revi » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 13:14:12

I think we'll see spot shortages soon, but I hope it isn't in Maine any more.

We had a shortage of propane a couple of years ago and were down to what was in the trucks here in Central Maine. Fisher snowplow had to shut down because of the lack of propane.

We are on the edge, so we run out first.

There is a tanker port in Portland, so that helps.

Most of the crude goes up to Montreal, however.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Velociryx » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 14:53:34

@ Airline Pilot - OF2's right, you know...the more you type, the more you contradict yourself. That you can't even see it speaks volumes. On the one hand YOU (not us sir...YOU) try to build on the case for shortages in the US by referencing US Banks, the US government, and US Housing inventory, hinting at some big Corporate-Governmental conspiracy we all need to "wake up to."

Then, to support claims of these dire oil shortages in the US (which, per your own articles, aren't shortages based on lack of supply, despite your inference, but rather, logistics problems)...but to support these claims of dire shortages, you....go off on a tangent and start talking about 3rd world countries whose citizens are getting priced out of the market?

And THEN, when we point out that the two things have BEANS to do with each other, you ask us "what's our point?!"

Um...dude. Is English YOUR first language? Cos we really are talking past each other. Why not stop telling us why you MAY HAVE said something and actually try to MAKE A POINT, if there is one buried somewhere in the midst of all the contradictions.

Rather than calling us deniers when we fail to read between the lines of the various contradictory crap you've been writing, please...let's regroup.

IS there a point somewhere, other than, "mayyyyyyyybe, at some point in the future (not sure when tho), something rilly rilly bad might happen, POSSIBLY, if oil prices continue to rise?" Cos I don't think anybody would disagree with that.

So...is there something...I dunno...of SUBSTANCE to your position? Anything? At all? Inquiring minds want to know!

PS: Oh...Glad to hear you're not a fast-crash doomer. I guess these day's they're a somewhat endangered species, here FIVE YEARS after peak (per TOD), and no mass die-off yet.

Being a Fast-Crasher in today's environment would be rather like being a Y2k Hysteria Monger NOW, in 2010. Interesting though, that the entire character of this and similar boards has been very much alive with fast-crash scenarios, and yet, when they didn't pan out, you guys collectively rubbed your hands together like Homer Simpson's boss and said, "Yes....just as we've always predicted...." *cue maniacal laughter*

Uh huh.... :lol:
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 19:50:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '
')Why not stop telling us why you MAY HAVE said something and actually try to MAKE A POINT, if there is one buried somewhere in the midst of all the contradictions.



One more time, for the reading and comprehension impaired. The entire gist of this thread was borne out by what occurred in the industry late 08 and into early 09. The simple idea which ended up being proven correct was that the global recession and banking/credit crisis would HAVE AN IMPACT on future oil projects. It would cause delays and problems with investment across the board. Falling profits due to the lowering crude price would have an effect on production, exploration, and infrastructure spending. This was proven by the numerous links from the investment world and other energy blogs countless times.

My premise was proven true and as has been the case in the past, when production is curtailed in such a fashion usually it does not come back 100% when economic conditions get better. I submit this IS what happened and while higher crude prices are causing a rebound in production as of late, we still have issues which tend to support that premise that we are STILL having problems with investment in this sector along with all other aspects of the economy. I grant that the higher crude prices are HELPING but we have yet to see production rebound to similar levels yet. I admit that this can and may happen, but only with the right economic signals.

To refute it is folly, its already happened! I never said anything about doom, collapse of production, nor running out of oil. My recent post about shortages was to wake up folks to a wider vision which encompasses the globe and not just typical corny outlooks concerning only the US.

If and when production recovers we will have further declined with the older larger fields and while thispresently tends to mask the effects of PO it does not negate it nor the important work sites like this and others are doing studying what the overall decline picture may look like.

The rest of the recent posting I have done is to make others reading this thread understand your modus operandi . Assumptions and labels have been made which are completely inaccurate and mischaracterize what this thread and most of us who enjoy this site are about.

Whats so hard to understand about that?

If we dont agree than why dont you just politely say so rather than make sweeping generalizations which are completely wrong?
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 19:53:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', 'I') guess these day's they're a somewhat endangered species, here FIVE YEARS after peak (per TOD), and no mass die-off yet.


I'm a regular reader of TOD and that is most decidedly NOT the opinion over there except for possibly a very small minority of participants. Once again your cherry picking to make light of something which YOU are manufacturing. That sentiment is also NOT shared by the majority of us here either. If you are so convinced you are correct I'd submit you need to do a lot more reading here and less posting.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 21:10:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'N')obody here is denying that the US has some decent inventory. Gee I wonder why?
Because there is <quick inhalation of breath in anticipation> PLENTY!!!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'V')elo, Ill raise the BS flag again here on you. You are falsely assuming meaning where none is implied. Once again i point out that almost NO ONE HERE IS talking about running out of oil, yet you ignorantly claim we are talking immediate doom. Wrong.
Perhaps not today, at PO+5, but when it was happening? Bet your bottom dollar....immediate Doom was the cool fantasy of the day. How soon the revisionists forget.... Claims of PO effects "within days".... $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Energy Expert Jan Lundberg On Peak Oil Effects Within Days', '
')The trucks will no longer pull into Wal-Mart. Or Safeway or other food stores. The freighters bringing packaged techno-toys and whatnot from China will have no fuel. There will be fuel in many places, but hoarding and uncertainty will trigger outages, violence and chaos.
link

Of course, it was all pretty serious back then, but reality has taught us that the results of PO + 5 are apparently....PLENTY!
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 21:17:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')ome on Airline, are you kidding?
When you have lived in one area your entire adult life and pay close attention to things like this, patterns are noticeable. Reasons for things like diesel and home heating fuel shortages become apparent. Noting that this is becoming more prevalent in the last 2-3 years during colder parts of winter hints at underlying fundamental change.
Do they? Since when does what anyone else might refer to as a statistical outlier have anything to do with fundamental change? Stuff breaks. Hurricanes happen. Electricity fails. Hurricanes happening more in one season than the next does not imply a trend of increasing hurricanes, nor of fundamental change. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')Your silly reply shows you have no desire to be objective and look at a piece of data no matter how trivial with anything other than denial colored glasses.
My silly reply was designed to express confusion as to how a broken this or that in some part of the country which may have been fixed within hours of it happening can be confused with an actual significant event. Same as with your examples of how a break in the supply chain somewhere in Africa has anything to do with so much inventory that refineries can barely make money on doing their jobs these days.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 21:20:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Anyway, back on topic . . .

>>> Canadian Operators Revive Oil Sands Projects <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ompanies are reviving projects in Canada's oil-sands region, a sign that life is returning to an industry hit hard by the economic downturn.


Just imagine what happens when Chavez gets his economic house in order and brings on line a volume of oil half the size of all that used by humankind in their entire consuming history.
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