[arretium]

Bruin -

The "Carter Doctrine" stated that "outside forces" would be repeled, even by the extension or use of military force.

The Bush Docrtine is regime change. This isn't an extension because it is no longer "outside forces" that our gov't is opposing, it's the country itself.

In fact, when you take a look at Carter's actions during the Iranian Hostage crisis, it further diminishes your point. Carter had as good a pretext as we'll get to rally the nation to war. The gov't didn't do it. I think we'd agree that Bush would have went to war on the same basis.

Despite the "Carter Doctrine", our gov't failed to follow it to its conclusion since when the Soviet Union responded we didn't take overt action. Why? Because it would have been a mistake. If we did take overt action, you and I wouldn't be sitting here. We'd be dead or severely deformed from Nuclear War. Everyone knew what the consequences were of escalation. It's only that some psycho paths in the NeoCon fold actually want us to die from Radiation.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'L')et's keep things straight here. You might hate Reagan/Bush I/Bush II, but Carter was the first to spell out an American policy of war for oil.

[killJOY]

Democrat/Republican...they all suck.

[Jdelagado]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')OL. Your utopia will have MASSIVE COSTS. Where is this infinite amount of capital and infrastruccture coming. Are we humans creating matter to produce more of this "Technology" are we now at the pooint now where natural resources arent producing our "Toys" anymore. O my fucking god Humans are creating matter now. We are saved. keep growing them numbers and that economy it will all just go smoothl. Better get that techno shit out there fast BIGGBOY. LOL. I have to laugh. Its scary. Well we just got done today with a discussion about this detachment. Fear mongering? I only see fear by folks searching for that utopia that is entirely dependent on GRADE A natural resources. Hello the chafe is left the weed is almost gone. LOL. all your solutions require more and more never ending amounts of land, energy, resources, food to feed the never ending growth of bodies. well hopefully we can cut populations down and maybe they might work with 20 million in the US. But what the hay. if it makes folks happy believing in sant aclaus, cool. Ive worked on biomass projects. they Need so much input for it to be worth anything you need pre contact population levels.
ahh fuck it we dont need no stinking water or clean air. LOL. ethanol. The cost of that will be leaving your children and their children in a soiled shithole of cancer. The enviroemment will be shot and anything resembling a free healthy country will be gone. youll have to got MEXICO to get a ggo clean breath of air. Mexico for crying out load. Help us all. These will never be the answer. Sure make the profits. Thats all that amters at this point. I for one dont want to abe anywhere near these utopian solutions productions. UGGGHH.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'D')emocrat/Republican...they all suck.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat a miracle of media management, that in the wake of whatever happened on 9/11, peak oil, and two foreign wars in progress - the 2004 election was about gay marriage.

[Overlyhonest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he other thing they didn't anticipate was that the gap between the haves the have-nots would widen into a chasm.

[Pops]

Typical “Left” “Right” rants - as to be expected. The internet is nothing but 15 bytes of fame. Not an independent thought in the bunch.

Fueled (or supplied, more probably) by pandering media, pastors and barmaids.

Too bad we are saddled with a majority of citizens who can’t express an opinion without feeling the need to go with one flock or the other.

Or even come up with one.

[bruin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')ypical “Left” “Right” rants - as to be expected.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur nation's independence of economic and political action is becoming increasingly constrained. Unless profound changes are made to lower oil consumption, we now believe that early in the 1980s the world will be demanding more oil that it can produce.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur nation's independence of economic and political action is becoming increasingly constrained. Unless profound changes are made to lower oil consumption, we now believe that early in the 1980s the world will be demanding more oil that it can produce.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur nation's independence of economic and political action is becoming increasingly constrained. Unless profound changes are made to lower oil consumption, we now believe that early in the 1980s the world will be demanding more oil that it can produce.

[Sunspot]

It's true that Carter's predictions didn't come true within the time frame he presented. Here are some of the reasons why:
1. We discovered and figured out how to produce oil from deep ocean environments. The Gulf of Mexico and The North Sea are the two major examples. This pushed off the crisis.
2. New technologies were developed in the oilfields, primarily slant and horizontal drilling. This enabled the world to increase production to levels not forseen by Carter. It also enabled us to drain the wells dry faster. And some technological improvements have damaged the wells so they'll never produce as much as they should have if we'd been more patient. New technologies did not lead to increased oil discovery - worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964.
3. Carter assumed we'd "play fair" with the rest of the world. We haven't. We ratcheted up the strategy of putting third-world countries into massive debt, and then blackmailing them into allowing the rape of their natural resources, oil and the other resources we need, regardless of the consequences to their citizens. For the straight story read "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" by John Perkins. Or save a dime and just read the reviews at Amazon.
4. We did implement some of Carter's recommendations. Appliances became more effecient, etc.
5. The world saved a lot of energy during the 80's. Why? Worldwide recession! Massive unemployment, homelessness, economic malaise. Remember the 80's? They mostly sucked.

Peak Oil is here. Nobody who is being honest is denying it anymore.
Except some of you on this forum. A few rebuttals:
To you biofuel enthusiasts: To replace all our fossil fuels with biofuels we'd have to use every bit of arable land in the country, and probably then some. But in order to grow anything we use massive quantities of fossil fuels. Tractors, combines, etc. Electricity for pumping the water, which comes mostly from fossil fuels. Energy to run the plant to convert the crop into alcohol. If we used the energy from biofuels to create the biofuels, there wouldn't be anything left over to use for anything else. What's called the Energy Ratio. Laws of Thermodynamics and all that science-y stuff. And, by the way, don't you think we need to be using what's left of the productive land in this country to grow food??? No sense in driving to an empty grocery store........
Forget about hydrogen, too. Takes more energy to get it than you get back when you use it. It's simply not an energy source. That energy ratio thing again.....
I can never understand the argument that because computers are so much faster that they used to be it somehow means that we will "invent a new energy source", or something like that. That old belief that some sort of miracle technology will save our bacon. Solar cells were invented around 1900. A tractor ran on a hydrogen fuel cell in 1961. There ain't nuthin' new out there. If there is I'm waiting to hear what it is. And please tell me the energy ratio of the scheme.

Another favorite question goes something like "Well what am I supposed to do about it?" Insert a whiney voice if you'd like. The first thing is to face facts. The collapse is coming, and probably soon. Caused by economic/energy problems. Exacerbated by climate change. The Industrial Age of Man is drawing to a close. We will no longer have easy and cheap availability of gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and electricity. Picture your life without any of those. I can't.
But I'm going to do what I can:
1. I'm 53 yrs old, never grew any food in my life. I am this summer. Nothing major, just for the experience. If you live in a city apt., pot a tomato plant and stick it on the balcony. Grow food. You're going to have to soon if you want to eat.
2. I picked up a couple of 5 gallon gas cans for $5 each. Gonna fill them at some point. An extra tank of gas may come in handy. When the gas crunch comes you won't be able to buy the gas cans.
3. Lay in extra food. Stuff that stores well. Like the official food of starving people anywhere, rice! Can't hurt, can it? Prices are going up, you're going to be eating anyway.
4. Think about what you'd need if you can't get it anymore. Example: There are no shoes manufactured in this country anymore. I can still go to Payless and get a pair of decent shoes for ten bucks! So I'm stocking up. Can't hurt, can it? Prices are going up, and you're likely to be walking more soon...... And that's just an example of how things will change when we no longer have access to all our cheap Chinese stuff. China has maxed out it's energy, their factories are having blackouts. It will only get worse. Buy stuff while it's still there and still ridiculously cheap. Like underwear.......

A final word to the naysayers: at least have the intellectual honesty to address the major issues the Peak Oilers present. Tell me what they say, then tell me why you disagree with each of their points and why. All I ever seem to hear is unsupported idealogy. And the Foxnews tactic of trashing the person to aviod dealing with what they say. I encounter this one on a daily basis. Jimmy Carter made the political mistake of telling the unhappy truth. The energy crisis never went away, it just seemed that way. It's back, and this time it won't go away.

Carry On............Sunspot out

[Zerstuckelung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n closing, let me say this: I will do my best, but I will not do it alone. Let your voice be heard. Whenever you have a chance, say something good about our country. With God's help and for the sake of our nation, it is time for us to join hands in America. Let us commit ourselves together to a rebirth of the American spirit. Working together with our common faith we cannot fail.
Thank you and good night.

[vegasmade]

Amen Snspot!

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Evltre', 'I')'m interested to know from anyone who was around then (I was 2 in 1977) what happened after those speeches? How did people react? Didn't they vote him out pretty quickly?

[Evltre]

I've been talking to my mother over the last couple of days about Carter, and the mood in the late 70's. At the time she wasn’t aware of exactly what he said - but remembers vividly the talk of the time. Apparently my dad was involved with a group of pretty radical hippies and he decided to move us off to a bit of land in the middle of know where, a 12x12 corrugated iron shed with no glass in the windows or doors. There we were going live off the land while civilization collapsed around us. Being a city boy he lasted about 8 weeks. Mum on the other hand (country girl) was happy as Larry!

So anyway – when I talk to her she laughs and says – “oh you sound just like your father did all those years ago – and it didn’t happen then”. She listens, and is very open to what I’m saying, but there is a part of her that just thinks it’s a replay of history.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Evltre', 'I')'ve been talking to my mother over the last couple of days about Carter, and the mood in the late 70's. At the time she wasn’t aware of exactly what he said - but remembers vividly the talk of the time. Apparently my dad was involved with a group of pretty radical hippies and he decided to move us off to a bit of land in the middle of know where, a 12x12 corrugated iron shed with no glass in the windows or doors. There we were going live off the land while civilization collapsed around us. Being a city boy he lasted about 8 weeks. Mum on the other hand (country girl) was happy as Larry!

So anyway – when I talk to her she laughs and says – “oh you sound just like your father did all those years ago – and it didn’t happen then”. She listens, and is very open to what I’m saying, but there is a part of her that just thinks it’s a replay of history.

[Evltre]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am afraid your mother is dead wrong

[kwftide]

In Jimmy Carter's 1977 Energy speech, he said:
"The oil and natural gas we rely on for 75 percent of our energy are running out. In spite of increased effort, domestic production has been dropping steadily at about six percent a year. Imports have doubled in the last five years. Our nation's independence of economic and political action is becoming increasingly constrained. Unless profound changes are made to lower oil consumption, we now believe that early in the 1980's the world will be demanding more oil than it can produce.

The world now uses about 60 million barrels of oil a day and demand increases each year about 5 percent. This means that just to stay even we need the production of a new Texas every year, an Alaskan North Slope every nine months, or a new Saudi Arabia every three years. Obviously, this cannot continue."

Obviously, we didn't run out of crude oil in the 1980's. Also, if you run the numbers starting at 60 mbbls in 1977 to today's current consumption rate, world oil demand has increased at an average rate of only 1% per year.
So, if we didn't run out in the 1980's and world demand growth since 1977 has been 1%/year rather than the 1977 rate of 5%/year, what factors caused growth rates to slow down?

He was right - if world oil demand growth at 5% per year had continued, we would have been in deep doodoo in the mid to late 1980's.
Why did annual world oil demand growth fall from 5% to 1%?