The True Intent of Health "Reform"http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1792-The-True-Intent-of-Health-Reform.html$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1').Congress will pass and Obama will sign something containing this "individual mandate."
2.This will generate immediate lawsuits which will begin their way through the system, headed for the United States Supreme Court. That process will take several years. Note that the so-called "benefits" of this reform will also take several years to show up. This is not an accident.
3.Meanwhile, the taxes begin immediately. This is exactly what happened in the 1930s by the way - taxes were raised right into the maw of an economic recession, and helped turn it into a Depression. Such it will be this time as well.
4.Young, healthy people will pay the "fines" under protest and refuse to buy coverage (it's cheaper than complying with a $15,000/year mandate to pay the $750/year fine!) and join said lawsuits in Step #2. This will in turn begin to force private companies out of the system (remember, there are also price controls in there!) as adverse selection will not be eliminated as promised.
5.At some point the courts will strike the individual mandate. Free to not pay the fine or buy insurance and prevented from raising rates adverse selection will collapse the remaining private health insurers.
At this point you have:
1.Permanently higher taxes (since it is constitutional to tax!)
2.NO private health insurers left in the market.
3.The "standards and practices" remaining and impossible to remove (note the super-majority requirements in the bill - intentionally put there to prevent the removal of those standards and practices!)
What comes next? Unable to impose mandatory individual payments to private companies The Government will then have "no choice" but to put in place a Canadian-style system.