PeakOil is You
When do you think peak oil will hit?
When do you think peak oil will hit?
by energyhoggin » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 22:46:41
Im guessing at or around 2020
Fact: There will be a limit to growth
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by Daniel_Plainview » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 23:15:34
If you're referring to conventional crude oil, then PO has already happened (or will be happening very shortly).
Last edited by Daniel_Plainview on Thu 17 Dec 2009, 07:10:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by eastbay » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 00:18:16
.... old news. Nearly five years ago.
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Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by mos6507 » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 00:45:08
According to my definition, which is for everyone to throw in the towel and concede that we are post peak because we have sustained high oil prices and sustained production declines, I'd say 2020. That is factoring in a prolonged (permanent?) global depression in which a combination of dollar devaluation and high energy prices act as a form of unintentional rationing. It also factors in some belated efforts at efficiency gains and renewables, which thanks to climategate, are probably going to be much more modest than they would otherwise have been.
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by Gerben » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 02:38:42
It's already 'hitting', but I have no idea where future historians will place the peak. I think it's likely that for conventional oil (the stuff that's actually oil and not some goo that can be turned into it if you add alot of energy) it already happened. More importantly: we're already past the point where the growth in oil production can keep up with demand. High oil prices triggered (although it isn't the root cause of) the current recession and I don't see the world return to economic growth unless it coincides with a reduced dependance on oil.
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by yesplease » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 07:58:03
IMO it's been a bumpy plateau since ~1980.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by MonteQuest » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 11:22:12
Depends upon what you mean by "hit."
If you mean when will it impact us...when we see a major economic collapse, small recovery, collapse. then repeat as necessary until no recovery.
If you mean, when will global oil production peak, conventional 2005, all liquids may be here already.
If you mean when will it impact us...when we see a major economic collapse, small recovery, collapse. then repeat as necessary until no recovery.
If you mean, when will global oil production peak, conventional 2005, all liquids may be here already.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by dsula » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 11:47:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')here won't be future historians. Oil depletion is only one manifestation of over population, overshoot, and the eventual end of society as we know it. Analytic history will no longer be a serious endeavor. There will only be before and after the Fall.
I'm looking forward to that, sitting in front of the chimney fire, grand-children around me. "Grandpa, tell us about the time when there were cars." As opposed to me, when I was a kid asking my grandpa. "tell me about the time when there were no cars"
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Re: When do you think peak oil will hit?
by mcgowanjm » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 11:54:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')epends upon what you mean by "hit."
If you mean when will it impact us...when we see a major economic collapse, small recovery, collapse. then repeat as necessary until no recovery.
If you mean, when will global oil production peak, conventional 2005, all liquids may be here already.
If you mean when will it impact us...when we see a major economic collapse, small recovery, collapse. then repeat as necessary until no recovery.
If you mean, when will global oil production peak, conventional 2005, all liquids may be here already.
There has been no recovery. Xmas spending is down 20%.
Nothing about Dubai has gotten better. The Ukraine is selling
ALL of it's grain. Famine by March, preceded by NatGas shut off
New Years.
And with Dubai, we're now gonna get Holiday Black Swans:
Christmas Eve, a Eastern European nation defaults. Maybe one
of the PIIGS.
And if we make it to April, watch Tax Revenue take a hit,
even over 2008:
gathering momentum in 2010.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')1. Millions of productive citizens will opt out, voluntarily or involuntarily. Millions of small business owners will get tired of paying taxes so thousands of Federal bureaucrats can "earn" $170,000 a year (and pile up benefits the private sector can only dream about) and make sure Goldman Sachs employees (the "doing God's work" CEO is only worth $250 million, poor guy) can divvy up $16 billion in ill-gotten gains. Ch Hughes Smith oftwominds
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