[dsula]

Credit card still works. My heat is still on. Market shelves still stocked. The neighborhood is still save. Plane travel is available at reasonable costs. Gasoline available. Internet is up, electricity is available. Phone works. Ambulance still coming when needed. Roads are plowed. Welfare is still paid. Immigrants and refugees are arriving as always. Police out there radaring as always.

Where is this collapse? Wasn't it supposed to be here by now, according to old predictions? Or do we postpone till Christmas 2010?

[cipi604]

The loooooooooooong emergency

[basil_hayden]

Yeah, not a problem in the world...

demand down 9% in my country yet fuel prices are still high as hell...

at least 10% unemployment.....

all but two state budgets in the red....

extreme cutbacks in police, firefighter and education services....

Must be the bumpy plateau!

I think Ayoob put it best in a post a couple years ago stating that the second quarter of the depletion curve will be the worst part, as depletion accelerates. But why distort your current point of view with the facts?

[Revi]

You probably live in what I call "la-la land". Check out the other side of town where the poor live. There are lots of people there who are now without a job. They may be able to shed some light on the subject of where peak oil is. They don't know why they have no job, and the phrase "peak oil" isn't in their vocabulary. They are the first to feel it's effects nonetheless.

Remember what happened with the Titanic?

The poor were locked below decks and the rich took off in the lifeboats.

The middle class passengers were treated to a band and snacks on the deck.

I think you can hear the music if you listen.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'Y')eah, not a problem in the world...
demand down 9% in my country yet fuel prices are still high as hell...
at least 10% unemployment.....all but two state budgets in the red.... extreme cutbacks in police, firefighter and education services....Must be the bumpy plateau!
I think Ayoob put it best in a post a couple years ago stating that the second quarter of the depletion curve will be the worst part, as depletion accelerates. But why distort your current point of view with the facts?

[NoWorries]

The OP makes a good point: Many predictions of impending doom should be revisited. It's the honest thing to do. And it's instructive, also, to see why those predictions failed to materialise.

Reminds me of the old quote by Hunter Thompson: "Those bastards have been promising us the Apocalypse for years!' It's a good quote, and still rings true today.

(I think he was referring to religious fundamentalists at the time.)

[lateStarter]

Don't be so damn impatient! I know it is hard, but try to use this 'calm before the storm' period of time to your advantage! If you are ready for the next leg down already, more power to you...

[Mesuge]

PO walks undercover: economic depression, wars, disease, infrustructure crumbling, ..

[frankthetank]

PO takes other shapes, like carbon taxes and unemployment. Anything to hide the truth.

Basil-

Speaking of CT...What end of the scale are you on?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34303250/ns ... forbescom/

[ian807]

We've begun a slow decline. As Buffet mentioned recently after purchasing a railroad, it's going to be tough to increase production.

The main symptom you'll see from here on out are wierdly unpredictable oil price spikes followed by economic downturns followed by reduced consumption followed by price crashes followed by recovery followed by the *next* price spike....

And so on. Rinse lather and repeat, with the oil supply and world economies gradually sliding down in tandem, just a little out of phase.
.
Of course, all this could get a little more entertaining if Saudi oil production were to drop off as suddenly as Mexico's Canterell field. The resulting price spike could look more like a plateau. Even more so if Russia, or Venezuela or Iran decided to keep all of their oil for their own domestic use. In the USA, oil peaked in the late 70s. We can't drill our way out of it even if we opened up all areas for production. There's just not enough there to do more than delay the inevitable a year or two.

So enjoy. Today, we have gas, food and the money that comes out of the ATM can still buy something. We have a reprieve for now. Might be good to make the most of it while you can.

[dsula]

If this is a long emergency then there is no way to prepare, only adapt.

However if on the other hand this is quick crash followed by a quick die-off followed by happier times, only then it is possible to prepare (stock up on food, defense, emergency gear and such)

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')those are economic issues caused by living beyond our means. It had to blow up sometime and it will get worse until the trade deficit = $0. It would have happened even if oil was free.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'P')O walks undercover: economic depression, wars, disease, infrustructure crumbling, ..

[basil_hayden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'P')O takes other shapes, like carbon taxes and unemployment. Anything to hide the truth.
Basil- Speaking of CT...What end of the scale are you on? link

[jlw61]

[kpeavey]

The peak is all around you. You can see it when you look out your window. You can feel it when you go to work, when you take out your trash, when you pay your taxes.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', '
')Now back on-topic, if dsula can't see that the world is reorganizing around higher petroleum prices, nothing will change his point of view.

[gnm]

You are right - it is slower than many have thought. I am in the slow crash camp generally but I won't rule out the possibility of masses of people behaving badly as they get upset about their lifestyle grinding down to a third world level. Or nations/states behaving badly as a result as well. If you look at the conservative predictions for PO, and if the decline plays out as predicted, then you might be looking at something like 50% less available oil impacting all sectors after 10 years. My guess is thats going to sting BAU pretty hard... When will you actually see it? I see it now. If you're waiting for anarchy and zombie hordes you might have a long wait. Go out 20 years though and somethings got to break. Either that or the technotopians win and fusion/super batteries/etc save the day.

-G

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ither that or the technotopians win and fusion/super batteries/etc save the day.

[Googolplex]

It looks pretty simple to me. This has happened before.

The housing bubble blew up to early. Many doom predictions assumed the peak would pop all the bubbles at once (which would have been that perfect storm folks are worried about, including me), however the housing bubble, by popping earlier and bringing a few other bubbles with it, caused a massive recession before we flew over the peak oil cliff. The recession then destroyed demand for oil and we slid back from the cliff.

There was a LOT of demand destruction too, more then I (and some others here) would have thought we Americans were capable of. Turns out we had much more energy waste to tighten up on then was previously thought (Well isn't that swell... ).

The net result, just like previous recessions, most notably the 70s oil shocks, is to push back the peak a bit, maybe as much as 5-10 years past where it would have been. It was originally predicted to happen in the 90s after all.